Weekend #s June 3-5: TMNT2 35.25m, X:A 22.3m, MBY 18.27m, Alice 10.69m, Birds 9.775m

[filmnerdjamie]

Honestly both The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 fit in the category of Sequels to Well-Liked Films Nobody Specifically Asked For. Which we just saw with Neighbors and following the paths of Ted, Horrible Bosses and Sherlock Holmes (to name a few) before them.

 

Fully expect Now You See Me 2 to outright fall but The Conjuring 2... I don't think it will do as high as tracking suggests. But that was one of the high-lights of a very tepid summer.

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

 

Easy to say this now, even if there were signs for all of them. 

 

Personally, Conjuring 2 will not beat the first but will cross $100m, ID42 will make over $300m, CI will not make more than $80m and Dory will lose to Nemo unadjusted.

 

Don't know why there is a difference between Dory and Alice 2 for example in terms of the trailer. Dory's trailers and plot have been substandard from day 1. Nostalgia probably won't cut it, and people are certainly less nostalgic about Nemo than Toy Story. 

 

 

I actually totally called "flops" like Neighbors, Alice, Nice Guys, and even Money Monster (a decent hit) doing exactly what they did. It was just clear there was a fundamental flaw with these movies doing much of anything impressive. Say for X-Men soon as the reviews came through. I didn't think TMNT2 would drop this bad but the lack of buzz was palatable, it was like an anti-buzz. It's just a bad slate.

 

I think Dory is going to be the biggest of the summer and the biggest of the year, even if the trailers have been eh. Central Intelligence just seems like a perfectly sound comedy hit with two of the most reliable draws in Hollywood. The market is dying for a horror, and Conjuring 2 is THE horror movie this year. I'm still not buying ID2 being huge, I wish I could. But it should be a more exciting next few weeks. 

[MCKillswitch123]

But here's the thing: while nobody asked for a Conjuring sequel, audience request for a movie set within said universe has been proven as absolutely rock solid after Annabelle's success. While it doesn't as much marketing or buzz as the original, it still has quite a lot of it, and it stands as a juggernaut compared to any other horror film released this year. There is certainly a possibility that The Conjuring 2 misses the tracking or expectations, sure, but in a completely lukewarm Summer, w/some decent but not exactly mindblowing horror performers here or there across the year (The Boy being the standout) but nothing more, and w/the horror genre/audience having no real meat to them right now (cause let's face it: nobody went to see The Darkness), anything that has brand loyalty + decent social media buzz + good reviews to boot should do pretty well at the end of the day.

 

I'm actually starting to feel confident (more like hopeful, but still) about the possibility of a Conjuring 2 on the top 10 movies of the Summer club...

[Cmasterclay]

11 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Honestly both The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2 fit in the category of Sequels to Well-Liked Films Nobody Specifically Asked For. Which we just saw with Neighbors and following the paths of Ted, Horrible Bosses and Sherlock Holmes (to name a few) before them.

 

Fully expect Now You See Me 2 to outright fall but The Conjuring 2... I don't think it will do as high as tracking suggests. But that was one of the high-lights of a very tepid summer.

This feels totally right in the general "feeling" you describe. It's some intangible thing you put a finger on. I just think that unlike those movies, Conjuring 2 actually has pretty damn good reviews and a wide open marketplace (when was the last big horror movie)? That could save it. The others? Right with ya. 

 

Also, forgot about Annabelle. That proves there is an audience for more of these, though I do wonder if the satisfied demand/mediocre reception to that one could possibly hurt this. Could just prove that this franchise is strong, though. 

Edited June 3, 2016 by Cmasterclay

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

This feels totally right in the general "feeling" you describe. It's some intangible thing you put a finger on. I just think that unlike those movies, Conjuring 2 actually has pretty damn good reviews and a wide open marketplace (when was the last big horror movie)? That could save it. The others? Right with ya. 

 

 

 

The summer savior is coming in 2 weeks time

 

 

Central Intelligence > 50M OW

[The Futurist]

Dory has tons of competition this summer, surrounded by Ice Age & Life or Pets.

[filmnerdjamie]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

The summer savior is coming in 2 weeks time

 

 

Central Intelligence > 50M OW

 

That's a bingo.

 

That gif alone made it a $100M grosser IMO.

[RichWS]

Wait, wait, wait....Conjuring 2 is 134 minutes? 

[filmnerdjamie]

Said it before, say it again.

 

ID4 2 was fucked the moment Will Smith didn't come back (Regardless of how he's alienated general audiences with that sore loser/cry baby bullshit he pulled with his wife about the Oscars, his bratty kids and the Scientology association). Would be like not having Harrison Ford in The Force Awakens. Can't fathom $300M gross there.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Wait, wait, wait....Conjuring 2 is 134 minutes? 

HAAAAAAAALBAAAAAAAAA

[RichWS]

8 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Dory has tons of competition this summer, surrounded by Ice Age & Life or Pets.

 

No different than DM2 and Minions coming out three weeks after MU and Inside Out. I don't see the big deal. Plus, I see Ice Age as more of an issue for Pets. That's five weeks after Dory.

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, RichWS said:

 

No different than DM2 and Minions coming out three weeks after MU and Inside Out. I don't see the big deal. Plus, I see Ice Age as more of an issue for Pets. That's five weeks after Dory.

 

I still think this competition makes it harder for Dory to reach very big numbers like 400-450m plus dom.

 

Plus, They are all movies with talking animals.

[MCKillswitch123]

Ice Age is a minor blunder in its run, although it will be a serious pain in the ass worldwide.

 

Pets though... my oh my. I know guys my age that are interested in that film, and they're not even that much into films, nevermind animations. I don't believe we're gonna see a Zootopia zeitgeist just yet, but you never know...

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Warcraft	Universal	3,400+	-	-	1
2	-	The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros.	3,100+	-	-	1
3	-	Now You See Me 2	Lionsgate/Summit	3,000	-	-	1

 

None of next week's releases have particularly high theater counts, though that shouldn't necessarily be a problem. Conjuring is opening to 200 more theaters than the first and NYSM 100. Horror movies only do well in areas with a good amount of younger people so it's pretty much rural areas not getting The Conjuring.

[filmlover]

I guess what helps The Conjuring 2 avoid sequelitis is that there hasn't been anything in the horror genre to steal its thunder in the interim, like The Grudge did to The Ring (a lot of people went to see the former thinking that it was the actual sequel to the latter at the time).

[RichWS]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

 

I still think this competition makes it harder for Dory to reach very big numbers like 400-450m plus dom.

 

Plus, They are all movies with talking animals.

 

 

And how much more would MU and Inside Out have made without their competition? Likely a bit more. That's the business. I think it could approach 400 regardless. I don't think it'll get there, but it'll be fine. Anything over well over 400 is a daydream to begin with. 

[MCKillswitch123]

Tells you so much that we are far more invested in talking about next weekend than this bomb snoozefest of a 3-day span (Me Before You aside) 

[The Futurist]

If the word disapointment starts to pop up in Dory's reviews or dat RT consensus tho ...

 

 

[filmlover]

When does Dory's embargo break? I imagine it's been screened by now.

[RamblinRed]

Pets is one that i think could really break out this summer.

Saw the trailer this weekend with my son and it got a strong positive reaction.

 

Dory's going to do well - like 350MM well, i'm not convinced it will make 400 yet, but it has the best chance of any movie this summer imo to get there.

Pet's could eat into it though. I think ice Age might struggle some. That was another of the previews we saw this weekend and it didn't get nearly the reaction of Pets.

I think Pets and Dory are more likely to cause issues for Ice Age (which I think could suffer the same problem as many of the sequels this summer) than the other way around.

I'm thinking sub 150 for Ice Age. Continental Drift only did 160MM after the previous 2 topped out just short of 200.

 

I also think Suicide Squad is really well positioned. That won't matter if the film is not good, but if it feels fresh like DP then it could break out in the late summer with little around it likely to do very well.