Weekend #s June 3-5: TMNT2 35.25m, X:A 22.3m, MBY 18.27m, Alice 10.69m, Birds 9.775m

[narniadis]

Yikes seems my low 30s isn't going to be low enough.... 

[The Panda]

Maybe studios will start learning that audiences don't want sequels to every movie that was a hit or broke even in the past few years?

 

Spoiler

Nah.

 

[babz06]

14 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Yes. So far, the lead-up to these movies is looking exactly like the marketplace leading up to Jurassic World.

Yeah. Honestly, if the box office doesn't blow up for Finding Dory/Independence Day Resurgence then the studios are in deep trouble. Nearly every single one of the big 7 are making plans to jumpstart or build franchises. 

I guess they have to go back to making more original films, if this doesn't work out........

Edited June 3, 2016 by babz06

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, department store basement said:

 

The Purge: Election Year could do it.

 

I'm actually predicting it to win its weekend, beating BFG.

Independence Day will win 4th of July weekend.

[RandomCat]

Times like this, makes me realize why I suck at the derby.

 

This just hurts all around.

[La Binoche]

Just now, zenithtim said:

The more i think about it, the lower the opening weekend of TMNT2 will be. $2M starting at 5pm means a 3x drop from the original's $4.6M for the 7pm-midnight period.  Expect the weekend to be around $21-$22M (a third of the original's $65M).

 

Michael Bay's loss is Kate Beckinsale's victory. Lead role in the year's most acclaimed movie that has become an (indie) box office hit and looking hot/being hilarious while promoting. She won. 

 

 

 

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Yeah. Honestly, if the box office doesn't blow up for Finding Dory/Independence Day Resurgence then the studios are in deep trouble. Nearly every single one of the big 7 are making plans to jumpstart or build franchises. 

I guess they have to go back to making more original films, if this doesn't work out........

 

We can only hope

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

 

Michael Bay's loss is Kate Beckinsale's victory. Lead role in the year's most acclaimed movie that has become an (indie) box office hit and looking hot/being hilarious while promoting. She won. 

 

 

 

Yeah, I'd like to think of this as #Justice4Kate. See what happens when you trash a goddess, Michael?

[Truckasaurus]

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

The Purge: Election Year could do it.

 

I'm actually predicting it to win its weekend, beating BFG.

Nah. Independence Day Resurgence should keep number one.

 

[Ohana]

Amagad TMNT II 1.4M to 2M...I knew It's gonna bomb but had no idea it will be that bad...

I hope Megan Fox's "movie career" will end with this flop.

[RyneOh1040]

Absolutely awful for Turtles and definitely a win for MBY.  A popular book plus very smart leads is going to lead to a big win for the studio.

 

In regards to the rest of the summer, the ONLY sequels I think have a shot at outgrossing their predecessors are Conjuring 2 and Dory.  The Conjuring will be going off a lot of good will from the first and early reviews seem to indicate this is on par with the first.  Legs probably won't be as strong but I think if it can open to 55-60 it can make up the difference.  Dory will win the summer.  I'm not trying to sound crazy but I think theres an OUTSIDE shot of 500.  400 seems the floor to me (I know that will get some backlash) but I think it and the Incredibles are the only Pixar films people are really excited to see a sequel for. Secret Life of Pets could obviously squash Dory's changes of going atmospheric if it doesn't have a huge rush but I think it will.  It's a true 4 quadrant film.

 

The one thing I'm really confused on is people thinking Independence Day will pass the original.  The trailers have been really poor and every time I see it before a film (including last night before Turtles) I feel like there's no audience reaction.  It's just shit blowing up with terrible one liners.  Goodblum helps but I just can't see this being a big hit and would legitimately not be surprised if it doesn't out open the original.  Seems like a 150 grosser to me.

Edited June 3, 2016 by RyneOh1040

[grim22]

Low openers are bad news for holdovers as well - especially since holdovers have normally been weak anyway. No spillover business coming their way leading to better holds.

[picores]

30m OW for a summer tentpole is really bad. Poor Turtles.

 

The Conjuring 2 is gonna breakout for sure. Market is open and awareness is high. I see 60m OW as the low end.

[filmlover]

Remember when Megan Fox was touted to be the next Angelina Jolie? lmao.

[La Binoche]

Michael Bay's loss is also a victory for film fans in general. 

[The Futurist]

Transformers 5 under 150m next summer ?

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Independence Day will win 4th of July weekend.

I think it'll go like this:

 

1. Dory and ID: Mid-30's

3. Purge: 30M

4. BFG: 23M

5. The Shallows: 19M

6. Tarzan: 17M

[filmlover]

I cannot wait to see The Shallows. There is no way that won't be fun to see with an audience.

[a2k]

TMNT1 released in August, so wonder how previews get affected compared to June.

Irrespective, 2m is a -56.5% drop in previews. That's a huge drop.

56.5% down from TMNT1's ow of 65.58m would be 27.85m.

 

TMNT1 had a strong multiplier of 2.91x.

2.6x and a 30m ow would give TMNT2 78m dom. Prod budget is 135m.

Would be something if NYSM2 beats TMNT2 and ALICE2.

Edited June 3, 2016 by a2knet