Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[The Futurist]

The market is now overcrowded with big event movies almost every week.

 

It s basically summer all year long now so having a lenghty run becomes more and more difficult.

 

Big ass blockbuster fatigue is real.

 

I mean ID4 R is a giant 200M blockbuster VFX extravaganza and the audiences' reaction so far to this project is :

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Does that 50M OS take for Dory not worry anyone? Or did it just not open in very many markets?

TONS of places to open yet. 

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

Yeah, I feel stupid for upping my predicts before. Stupid hype affecting the BO sites.

Same. I had it at 200M OW and 500M DOM total. I remember before BvS I had it at around 400M lol. 

[cannastop]

Gotta say, WTF happened to Angry Birds? That movie single-handedly tanked the derby average.

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

50M OW for SUICIDE SQUAD and that's probably being very generous..

Oh stop.

 

Not wanting to start a war here, but

 

SS double Dr Strange OW

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

The market is now overcrowded with big event movies almost every week.

 

It s basically summer all year long now so having a lenghty run becomes more and more difficult.

 

Big ass blockbuster fatigue is real.

 

I mean ID4 R is a giant 200M blockbuster VFX extravaganza and the audiences' reaction so far to this project is :

 

Yeah, I agree, there have been way too many big movies this year so far. We usually don't get 5 330M+ monsters in the first 5 months of the year.  

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Gotta say, WTF happened to Angry Birds? That movie single-handedly tanked the derby average.

Dory happened

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Gotta say, WTF happened to Angry Birds? That movie single-handedly tanked the derby average.

 

A big animated film with 136 million opened.

 

Zootopia an exception, normally a big animated film coming out really really seems to hurt other animated films in the market. Guess the genre doesn't really support that much kind of competition typically.

Edited June 19, 2016 by MrPink

[filmlover]

Dory will be #1 of the summer now. Possibly the year too depending on Rogue One.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, DAJK said:

Oh stop.

 

Not wanting to start a war here, but

 

 

  Hide contents

SS double Dr Strange OW

 

Not really a stretch considering Strange will be lucky to open over 60M

[BK007]

11 hours ago, nilephelan said:

Zootopia is good, but it isn't great.  The honest thing is that 90% of kids movies are going to make big money.  Only a few select ones will fail, but you have to be pretty bad to make less than $100m and most will make $150m+

 

Anything good is making $300m or more at this point.  

 

That's absolutely false.

 

Just since the start of summer we've had Angry Birds (failing to make $110m), Alice 2 and TMNT2 (both failing to make $90m). 

 

Zootopia is an outlier. Dreamworks have not had a single non-Shrek film make more than $230m if I'm not mistaken. Before Frozen, Disney hadn't made above $200m since what, the Lion King? Aladdin? Pixar made bank with Inside Out, but Good Dinosaur bombed. Even before that, only Toy Story 3 made more than $300m. 

 

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Civil War's performance is all about perspective.

 

It made a huge money. Fact.

 

It had a production budget of 430 million, according to deadline.

 

It had almost every possible Avenger ( minus Thor and Hulk ) + Spider Man and Black Panther + Downey Jr. It'll fail to match Iron Man 3 domestic and overseas grosses. Iron Man 3 was a true solo movie. It had no Avengers, no Shield, nothing. It was entirely focused on Iron Man. 

 

So, while the numbers are impressive for a Cap movie, this is far from being a Cap movie. Say what you want, but Marvel wanted this movie to perform like Avengers and not like a "Captain movie". The evidence is that they got Downey Jr and also put Spidey and Black Panther in it. So, Marvel was expecting Avengers numbers.

 

The marketing was tricky. We got a movie with Avengers pretending to be a movie focused on Captain's "perspective", but at the same time it went all global with events featuring the Avengers. Because the Accords will have effects all over the world, which means this movie is about the Avengers and not just about Captain America. At one point, this Avengers movie pretending to be Captain movie ignored the Accords and tried to focus on Bucky for a big part of it. Is Bucky guilty or not?

 

Sometimes I got the feeling that Civil War was trying to be a lot of things, but ended up ignoring a ton of key plots just to play safe again. Similar feeling I got with BVS. Movie was bipolar and tried to be a ton of things instead of trying to be a movie about Batman and Superman.

 

 

So yes, Civil War's performance might be considered both good and bad. Good if you think this is a Cap movie. Bad if you think that a Cap movie with almost all the Avengers fails to make a solo Iron Man's numbers both domestic and overseas. 

Edited June 19, 2016 by Blaze Heatnix

[baumer]

Angry Birds are no match for happy fish

[CJohn]

I don't play the Derby since April I think. Maybe I should return?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CJohn said:

I don't play the Derby since April I think. Maybe I should return?

Do it

[CJohn]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Do it

Next week I might throw some numbers at it. 

 

I feel we should have a monthly winner as well in that and not just a yearly winner. 

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

Angry Birds are no match for happy fish

Angry Birds actually did really well compared to its budget. Would be similar to a 200M movie doing 900M WW.

[baumer]

Civil War made a ton of money and it made way more than the last one. The gross is absolutely fine it's just that the Legs suck.

[GiantCALBears]

So ~$450m finish probably for Dory? Legs are what interest me more here...

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, Baumer said:

Civil War made a ton of money and it made way more than the last one. The gross is absolutely fine it's just that the Legs suck.

 

This goes back to whether you consider it a CA or TA sequel or a hybrid?

[CJohn]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

So ~$450m finish probably for Dory? Legs are what interest me more here...

I can see it pulling a Minions. This is not your typical family movie. 

[AniNate]

Thinking around 3.5-ish, disregarding Thursday previews. Between MU and Toy Story 3