Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[MrPink]

Thinking 90m and 250 total or something.

 

[MovieMan89]

I really don't understand how some people can't see how the stage is perfectly set this summer for SS to blow up. The GA will have had all of June and July to cool off from the Deadpool/BVS/CW/Apocalypse onslaught, marketing has been garnering buzz since the comic con trailer a year ago now, people are still underestimating Joker's draw power as a character (it's bigger than Batman and Superman's combined), and most importantly SS is a different kind of CBM. Which is obviously what today's audiences are looking for. I mean process of elimination alone tells you SS is hitting 250 minimum, unless people really believe CW will be the only true live action blockbuster of the summer. This lack of big summer hits is exactly what lead up to GotG's breakout too. Granted this summer has two huge animated hits, but that's a different market. CW isn't going to be the only 300+ live action grosser of the summer. 

[Ethan Hunt]

No joke though the tracklisting for the Suicide Squad soundtrack killed my hype

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I really don't understand how some people can't see how the stage is perfectly set this summer for SS to blow up. The GA will have had all of June and July to cool off from the Deadpool/BVS/CW/Apocalypse onslaught, marketing has been garnering buzz since the comic con trailer a year ago now, people are still underestimating Joker's draw power as a character (it's bigger than Batman and Superman's combined), and most importantly SS is a different kind of CBM. Which is obviously what today's audiences are looking for. I mean process of elimination alone tells you SS is hitting 250 minimum, unless people really believe CW will be the only true live action blockbuster of the summer. This lack of big summer hits is exactly what lead up to GotG's breakout too. Granted this summer has two huge animated hits, but that's a different market. CW isn't going to be the only 300+ live action grosser of the summer. 

 

I had it pegged higher but this whole summer has gotten me so legit shook that I've decided to be more 'conservative'

[MovieMan89]

170/450 is my current predict for SS, and I 100% stick by it. 

[James]

26 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Guys, come on. SS is going to do somewhere between $75M-$85M OW which should be considered a success for this new property.

That's almost Cap America First Avenger level C'mon...

I mean, just for a quick comparison, the first teaser for Rogue One has about 45m views on YT from it's 4 main channels. + 15m Facebook views

SS's comicon-footage has over 108m views from it's main channels. + 24m Facebook views

SS trailer 1 has over 70m from it's main channels. + 18m Facebook views

SS trailer 2 has about 45m from it's main channels. + 12m facebook views. That is almost the same as the first trailer for Rogue One. Just think about how crazy that is. I'm not saying it will outgross Rogue One. And of course trailer views are not a direct indicator for BO success. But there seems to be way to much hype for 75-85m OW. 

Edited June 19, 2016 by James

[baumer]

I can't see how Civil War misses 200 OW

I can't see how Civil War misses 500

I can't see how BvS misses 400

 

There's all kinds of predictions where people don't see clearly. 

 

SS will do 250 max.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Baumer said:

I can't see how Civil War misses 200 OW

I can't see how Civil War misses 500

I can't see how BvS misses 400

 

There's all kinds of predictions where people don't see clearly. 

 

SS will do 250 max.

The big difference is everyone expected those movies to do huge numbers because they're established and traditionally huge franchises. SS is Deadpool all over again in the way it's a different kind of CBM that will blow the analysts straight out of the water. 

[wildphantom]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

170/450 is my current predict for SS, and I 100% stick by it. 

 

$170?!?! Seriously?? 

 

I'll be staggered. 

[Lordmandeep]

SS has SW hype.

 

 

Lol James you realize yourself and your select friends is not a reflection of the movie going audience.

 

 

Star Wars had people from 3 to 75 excited .

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The big difference is everyone expected those movies to do huge numbers because they're established and traditionally huge franchises. SS is Deadpool all over again in the way it's a different kind of CBM that will blow the analysts straight out of the water. 

It won't do over Civil War. I can assure you that. 

[AniNate]

I could definitely be wrong, but right now the only thing that excites me about SS is Margot Robbie's outfit 

[James]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

SS has SW hype.

 

 

Lol James you realize yourself and your select friends is not a reflection of the movie going audience.

 

 

Star Wars had people from 3 to 75 excited .

I was referring to social media hype that runs on similar levels with TFA and way ahead of Rogue One. I am talking about very real numbers that you can look up. Deadpool was the same, hugely hyped on social media, but way below what SS is doing. Of course that will not translate in SW numbers, because older people watch SW and are not on social media. But for younger audiences, that made Deadpool a success, SS is a phenomenon.

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

No joke though the tracklisting for the Suicide Squad soundtrack killed my hype

Maybe it'll work in the movie but a lot of it is really uninspired. 

[wildphantom]

Suicide Squad does not have SW level hype. Hell i'm really looking forward to it, but EVERYONE was hyped for Star Wars. It had entire days that sold out as soon as the tickets went on sale TWO MONTHS before it even opened. You think SS is even close to that level? 

 

It'll do well to have its total finish with what TFA made in its OW!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

It won't do over Civil War. I can assure you that. 

Deadpool did what it did without really having the kid audience. That's the only reason it didn't outgross CW. SS however isn't going to have that limitation. Obviously I'd be an idiot to say it's locked to beat CW since it's a bold prediction, but all the signs are there. Just like all the signs were there last year for JW to break out huge and I foolishly let this board convince me there was no way it could be a 400+ grosser. Lmfao. 

[Captain Craig]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

170/450 is my current predict for SS, and I 100% stick by it. 

At least you'll be comfortable and at peace with yourself on the hill you've chosen to die upon. 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Suicide Squad does not have SW level hype. Hell i'm really looking forward to it, but EVERYONE was hyped for Star Wars. It had entire days that sold out as soon as the tickets went on sale TWO MONTHS before it even opened. You think SS is even close to that level? 

 

It'll do well to have its total finish with what TFA made in its OW!

Nothing has ever nor ever will again have TFA level pre-release hype. So let's just all put that comparison officially to rest. 

[babz06]

23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

170/450 is my current predict for SS, and I 100% stick by it. 

I won't feel bad for you when that prediction totally flops.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

I won't feel bad for you when that prediction totally flops.

I won't feel bad for me either. It's a bold prediction. Kinda like my TFA will hit 1b DOM one I made months before release that got way closer to happening than anyone outside of maybe CJohn ever would have admitted possible. It may not go as high as I think, but mark my words it will do GotG numbers at the very least.