Tuesday #s: Dory - $23.2M, CI - $4.5M, TC2 - $2.3M, NYSM2 - $1.6M, WC - $1M

[James]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

 

Who cares? Do you ever talk about anything that isn't horror? 

Well, not everyone cares was this stupid cartoon is doing. I happen to care more about TC2 myself. 

[WrathOfHan]

Ladies, you're all beautiful! 

[MikeQ]

I read through the thread and noticed the debate about whether Finding Dory would hit a 3.5 multiplier (i.e. $475 million domestic) or not. Looking at past Pixar movies in the "high class" category (those with 90%+ on rotten tomatoes), I would be surprised if Dory doesn't hit that 3.5 multiplier. Dory seems to already be running strong, with an excellent Monday and Tuesday (at least from perspective). However, we'll see what the rest of the week looks like, as it's possible Dory will not pull strong enough numbers. But considering Pixar history, and the strong WOM and critical reception for Dory, an under 3.5 multiplier would be somewhat surprising for me. Even a couple of Pixar's "not as great" movies hit the 3.5 multiplier.

 

Having looked back at this, I'm reminded of Pixar's incredible consistency, both in terms of relative box office success and critical reception. Most of their collection range from good to excellent, with many that a lot of people would highlight as classics. Their only real stinker has been Cars 2. I would say that's a very good track record. But I digress.

 

Pixar Movie Multipliers

 

90%+ RT Score Class

 

Inside Out - 3.94

Toy Story 3 - 3.76

Up - 4.30

Wall-E - 3.55

Ratatouille - 4.39

The Incredibles - 3.71

Finding Nemo - 4.83

Monsters, Inc - 4.09

Toy Story 2 - 4.28 (using first wide weekend)

A Bug’s Life - 4.89 (using 3-day wide weekend), 3.56 (using 5-day wide)

Toy Story - 6.58 (using 3-day), 4.91 (using 5-day)

Finding Dory - TBD

 

The ‘Other’ Pixar Movies

 

The Good Dinosaur (76%) - 3.14 (using 3-day), 2.22 (using 5-day)

Monsters University (78%) - 3.26

Brave (78%) - 3.58

Cars 2 (39%) - 2.89

Cars (74%) - 4.06

 

Peace,

Mike

[mahnamahna]

5 hours ago, The Pandaren said:

That's a fantastic Tuesday.  Could Dory have under a 40% drop this weekend?

$17 million (27% drop)

$16.5 million (3% drop)

$24.5 million (47% increase)

$33 million (35% increase)

$25 million (25% drop)

 

$82.5 million 2nd weekend (38.5% 2nd weekend drop)

[baumer]

51 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Incredible number for Finding Dory. It has outdone my expectations for how well it would do so far. I see $500 million domestic total happening at this point, as WOM looks to be strong; but we'll see what the rest of the week is like. With Independence Day 2 being rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps having a relatively muted opening weekend, Dory could continue to dominate.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

HOLY FUCKING BACK FLIP WHAT THE WOW!!!!

 

Dude....wow....I don't even know what to say.....Damn glad to see you!!!!

[baumer]

Ladies and gentlemen....allow me to introduce to you Mike Q.....one of the original Box Office Mojo member is from back in 2002. I haven't seen his name on the forms and probably a decade. But I immediately recognized him because the guy always leaves his signature at the bottom of every post. He's a terrific box-office analyst and one of the nicest guys I've ever met online. If this is not the same mike q from back in the Box Office Mojo days I will be stunned.

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

HOLY FUCKING BACK FLIP WHAT THE WOW!!!!

 

Dude....wow....I don't even know what to say.....Damn glad to see you!!!!

 

You too!!! I could never forget you, baumer. What can I say -- you're a legend. You go back to the BOM days - I still have clear memories of you and I and many of those original BOM members, and the interactions we had. I'm glad you're still around here -- I've been lurking here for a bit.

 

Peace,

Mike

[mahnamahna]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

A 10 day total of $293 does not guarantee a final total of $500m+. You're just assuming that it will have the same holds as The Dark Knight.

$48 million/$60 million ($401 million)

$22 million ($433 million)

$14.5 million ($461 million)

$6.5 million ($474 million)

$5 million ($483 million)

$4 million ($490 million)

$2.5 million ($494 million)

$1.5 million ($496 million)

$1 million ($497 million)

$2.25 million/$3 million ($500 million)

 

$500-510 million DOM isn't too crazy, especially with an $80 million+ 2nd weekend and an inevitable $55 million+ 4-day weekend after.

 

$470-480 million is my current guess, but its next two weekends will better determine its legs

[RascarCapat]

Glad to hear your analysis Mike.

 

Hope you stick around and that I will not have to wait a decade like B here to see your next post.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

$48 million/$60 million ($401 million)

$22 million ($433 million)

$14.5 million ($461 million)

$6.5 million ($474 million)

$5 million ($483 million)

$4 million ($490 million)

$2.5 million ($494 million)

$1.5 million ($496 million)

$1 million ($497 million)

$2.25 million/$3 million ($500 million)

 

$500-510 million DOM isn't too crazy, especially with an $80 million+ 2nd weekend and an inevitable $55 million+ 4-day weekend after.

 

$470-480 million is my current guess, but its next two weekends will better determine its legs

Thanks for the breakdown. My only point is that it's far too early to say exactly how it's going to play out for Finding Dory.

[MikeQ]

9 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Ladies and gentlemen....allow me to introduce to you Mike Q.....one of the original Box Office Mojo member is from back in 2002. I haven't seen his name on the forms and probably a decade. But I immediately recognized him because the guy always leaves his signature at the bottom of every post. He's a terrific box-office analyst and one of the nicest guys I've ever met online. If this is not the same mike q from back in the Box Office Mojo days I will be stunned.

 

You are too kind!! Like I said, you're a legend - I'm always all ears when you have something to say. I so remember back in the day... wish they hadn't gotten rid of the forums, or had the old posts still archived somewhere, would love to revisit that...

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited June 22, 2016 by MikeQ

[mahnamahna]

Just now, cannastop said:

Thanks for the breakdown. My only point is that it's far too early to say exactly how it's going to play out for Finding Dory.

Yeah, this next weekend could go anywhere from $70-90 million. 

 

It depends on where it's at by June 30th and its holding power against BFG/Pets

[MovieMan89]

I'm still very nervous about the weekend hold though. This summer keeps throwing us awful second weekend drops, even when it looks like they might not be that bad. Incredible Monday and Tuesday for it though, at any rate.

[DealWithIt]

36 minutes ago, James said:

Well, not everyone cares was this stupid cartoon is doing. I happen to care more about TC2 myself. 

 

Well, not everyone cares how another demon possession movie is going to end up doing. Far more people happen to care about how incredible Dory is already doing. 

Edited June 22, 2016 by DealWithIt

[MovieMan89]

It already has a pretty huge 38m lead over TS3 through the same point though, so Shrek 2's record really should be toast. 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, DealWithIt said:

 

Well, not everyone cares how another demon possession movie is going to end up doing. Far more people happen to care about how incredible Dory is already doing. 

Both movies are germane to this discussion.

[DealWithIt]

If RT really mattered, the Transformers franchise would've cratered after the first movie. People just don't seem to be that into another Independence Day. 

 

I on the other hand, can't wait for another Emmerich disaster porn flick. Part of the problem and all that I know, still looking forward to it. I wonder if Goldblum HAX the aliens with a MacBook this time around. 

[MovieMan89]

I feel like the all time DOM animation record is one Disney would actively care about, especially since Frozen has the WW one. So hopefully if it comes anywhere in the vicinity of Shrek 2 on its own, they find a way to get it over. IO got that massive re-expansion last labor day. 

Edited June 22, 2016 by MovieMan89

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I feel like the all time DOM animation record is one Disney would actively care about, especially since Frozen has the WW one. So hopefully if it comes anywhere in the vicinity of Shrek 2 on its own, they find a way to get it over. IO got that massive re-expansion last labor day. 

So did Toy Story 3. I guess that's why they like this June slot.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

So did Toy Story 3. I guess that's why they like this June slot.

Ah yes, I had forgotten that. IO's re-expansion last year really was insane though. It went back to 3,000 theaters after dropping to like 700.