Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[moviesRus]

2 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

2.75-2.9x OW isn't all that bad. Pretty much on par with Into Darkness if you factor in the weird Wed/Thurs previews. 

 

I don't see how it gets to 2.9x..unless it starts performing miraculously from now on.

[kswiston]

4 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

Sorry, but it won't come close to that.  It might do a 2.5X  I guess it could get to 165 if the late legs are strong.

 

2.5x is only $148M. Star Trek will be at ~$140M as of tomorrow's estimate, coming off a weekend around $7M, and a drop in the 30s. The next 3 weeks are pretty dead, and everything will get a Labor Day boost. I don't see how it misses $165M. 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by kswiston

[WilliamK99]

8 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

GOTG2 is going to be huge because it's Marvel.  They are infallible right now.  Doctor Strange will probably do 200 domestic and 600 WW and imo it looks ridiculous.  But Marvel loonies are a devoted bunch and all of their films do well.  

 

 

It's not that Marvel "loonies" are dedicated, it is the fact that Marvel has been consistent and have built up goodwill with their fanbase. Once you build up goodwill, you can have a few "stinkers" and fans will keep on coming. WB has not built up any goodwill with the DCEU thus fans aren't as forgiving of their missteps.

[Jonwo]

10 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I think that is a good comparison.  Next May as of right now is also incredibly weak as are the weeks leading up to GOTG 2 release.  It should have zero competition and be able to have a free run all the way to the 26th if not until Wonder Woman comes out.  

 

No animation worth a shit (I'm not going to count Barbie and Nut Job 2) to draw away families and no big budget action.  The only competition until the 26th is a potential Baywatch break out if that tells you anything.  

 

Even when you get to the 26th you have a much maligned Pirates movie that keeps having more Johnny Depp negative press.  Life looks interesting, but isn't much of a threat.  That untitled comedy from Rogen and Hader could be great, but again, not much of a threat.  

 

I think Guardians 2 will dominate May but I think Baywatch and possibly Mother/Daughter will do quite well. 

 

If Warner Bros was feeling ballsy, they could move Wonder Woman forward a week and take on Pirates but I think they'll play it safe and stay put.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

2.5x is only $148M. Star Trek will be at ~$140M as of tomorrow's estimate, coming off a weekend around $7M, and a drop in the 30s. The next 3 weeks are pretty dead, and everything will get a Labor Day boost. I don't see how it misses $165M. 

 

 

This man speaks the truth.

[moviesRus]

Disney is probably going to put the minimal effort into Pirates tbh. I can't imagine they'd want to deal with the toxic Depp situation in any way shape or form. 

[Water Bottle]

11 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

The big difference is you don't need to see any Star Trek movies to watch Beyond and get what everyone else is seeing. Really, they basically reference 2 things from previous films and only very very briefly. 

 

Yeah, that's my point. That it's not like Star Trek Beyond has had amazing legs despite being very accessible.

[EmpireCity]

Speaking of May 2017, with how loaded and great all of 2017 looks right now I am surprised a traditionally huge month like May is so devoid of something in the middle of the month.  

 

I think the industry is setting itself up again for a repeat of this July when there were too many films stacked on top of each other and they ate up each others box office like Star Trek Beyond/Jason Bourne/Suicide Squad releasing back to back to back.  

 

War for the Planet of the Apes is stuck in a bad spot sandwiched right between Spider-Man: Homecoming and Dunkirk/Valerian.  If I were 20th Century Fox, I would think that May 19th looks like a much better release date if you have any word that the new Pirates movie sucks, because right now I would rather go against the 3rd week of GOTG2 and the week before a declining Pirates movie instead of the 2nd week of Spider-Man/Iron Man and week before a Nolan war themed movie.  

[EmpireCity]

12 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

GOTG2 is going to be huge because it's Marvel.  They are infallible right now.  Doctor Strange will probably do 200 domestic and 600 WW and imo it looks ridiculous.  But Marvel loonies are a devoted bunch and all of their films do well.  

 

Wait a second, you just spent the last few pages arguing that people didn't like Civil War but now say that Marvel is infallible, so which is it????!!!!!

 

[moviesRus]

Just now, nilephelan said:

 

Wait a second, you just spent the last few pages arguing that people didn't like Civil War but now say that Marvel is infallible, so which is it????!!!!!

 

 

"I don't like it so it's bad" mentality.

[John Marston]

While Civil War's legs made sense, how come nobody was saying any of the things about how it would very frontloaded due to its position in the series before its second weekend drop ?

 

[jb007]

4 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

GOTG2 is going to be huge because it's Marvel.  They are infallible right now.  Doctor Strange will probably do 200 domestic and 600 WW and imo it looks ridiculous.  But Marvel loonies are a devoted bunch and all of their films do well.  

The fandom alone isn't enough to make Marvel as successful as it has been. Casual fans are a big part of it.

 

I'm not a comic book fan at all. In fact prior to 2008, the only MCU SH I was familiar with was Captain America. (Referred in Men in Black), but knew several DC characters since the late 70s. The only comics I have read in my life are those of Superman. 

 

As a casual fan, I like MCU because their movies for the most part competently made where as the DCEU movies have been a complete mess. 

 

My preference of MCU over DCEU is purely due to quality. It is that simple.

[John Marston]

GOTG 2 can easily decrease slightly from the first. It doesn't have the clear August that the first one had that also benefitted the first Ninja Turtles

[Nova]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

GOTG 2 can easily decrease slightly from the first. It doesn't have the clear August that the first one had that also benefitted the first Ninja Turtles

It has the whole month of May practically to itself. 

[moviesRus]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

GOTG 2 can easily decrease slightly from the first. It doesn't have the clear August that the first one had that also benefitted the first Ninja Turtles

 

As has been stated, May 2017 isn't looking too competitive right now either though. Probably cause Episode 8 held that Pirates release date for so long and scared everyone off, but right now, it's looking fairly empty for GOTG. 

[picores]

Its near impossible that GOTG2 decrease from the first, like 1% chance. IMO of course.

[John Marston]

Just now, picores said:

Its near impossible that GOTG2 decrease from the first, like 1% chance. IMO of course.

 

 

Iron Man 2, Ultron and Civil War were all guaranteed certain things as well 

[superweirdo87]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

While Civil War's legs made sense, how come nobody was saying any of the things about how it would very frontloaded due to its position in the series before its second weekend drop ?

 

 

Good questions. It will be interesting to see how later marvel movies perform and compare. I think people were caught up in the hype. Spidey was probably part of what many people figured would draw folks in because it is Spidey. The other thing is the reviews were appreciably better than Age of Ultron. So, I think people figured better multiple than AoU.

[The Panda]

A little bit of advertisement for a discussion thread over what is a spoiler.

 

 

[kswiston]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

While Civil War's legs made sense, how come nobody was saying any of the things about how it would very frontloaded due to its position in the series before its second weekend drop ?

 

 

Trades and Box Office sites hyped Civil War in the few weeks leading to release, and then we started seeing those early reviews half way through April. I think that a narrative was built up with regards to it blowing past a disappointing Age of Ultron. Even when the post-previews opening weekend didn't support that, people were stuck on Quality = more money. Hence expecting better legs that never came. 

 

Hopefully we remember all of this when Infinity War launches and keep expectations in check.