Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Subzero]

8 minutes ago, parkerthegreat said:

Come on @fmpro, it's only gotta make $75m more after a $45m weekend. It will make it, though probably just squeaking past it. Labor Day will be the extra help it needs to get there. 

"Long time Lurker since March 2007" -- almost 10 years lurking, what made you decided to join ?

[superweirdo87]

It would be great for Jason Bourne to match Supremacy.

[Subzero]

14 minutes ago, a2knet said:

13.35 (+62.8%) + 18.45 (+38.2%) + 13.21 (-28.4%) = 45.01M (-66.33%) ; 224.11M 10-day

That's 4mil better than what most was expecting after this weekend.

[DAJK]

BOT in a nutshell sometimes:

 

"movies I don't like have toxic word of mouth"

[parkerthegreat]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

"Long time Lurker since March 2007" -- almost 10 years lurking, what made you decided to join ?

 

Not sure to be honest. I guess I wanted to share my predictions and opinions with people who care and get the fun of tracking box office statistics. My wife gets annoyed by it. 

[superweirdo87]

SS flixter is down to 70%. Did anyone track BvS with dates?

[AJG]

9 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

SS flixter is down to 70%. Did anyone track BvS with dates?

 

It reached 70% much faster than BVS. I believe BVS was mid-high 70's at this point.

Edited August 13, 2016 by AJG

[baumer]

35 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

While I was mixed on Sausage Party, there's no denying it's a film that needs to be experienced with an audience. I can't see it not going to #1 next weekend and staying there for the remainder of the summer. 

 

And Pete's Dragon is a simple of case of Disney having way too much stock and having to put it... somewhere! Doesn't help matters that remaking it was always questionable. The original wasn't a big hit (made during their Dark Ages between Disney himself dying and Eisner/Katzenberg taking over) and only remembered by those of us who saw it on heavy rotation on the Disney Channel back in the day. So any IP value was never truly there, similar to the iffy decision to make a sequel to Tron and now this development with a new Rocketeer, and I say that as someone who loves the latter.

 

Imo SP us a one trick pony. It's going to crumble next weekend. Wom isn't nearly strong enough for it to be number one next weekend. My guess right now is it does about 31.5 thus weekend and drops to about 14 next weekend.  SS will probably do about 25 next weekend so SP won't be number one.

[a2k]

Giving weekly drops to SS.

Using weeks cause after the summer the business will move away from weekdays towards weekends.

 

For calculations, the literal Mon-Sun after OW is taken as week 1, and so on.

So 45.3 Mon-Thu (1st weekday) + Fr-Sun 45.0 (2nd weekend) = 90.3 is week 1.

 

Drops are simple.

58% coming week (coming Mon-Thu + 3rd weekend), followed by 50% drop in all other weeks till the dollar bump, then a 100% bump for 1 weekend (dollar bump) followed by 60% drops for 2 weekends.

 

After the OW, Mon-Sun (week 1) was 90.3 (45.3 + 45) taking SS to a 224.1 cume.

 

224.1 + 38(-58% from 90.3) + 19(-50%) + 9.5(-50%) + 4.75(-50%) + 2.4(-50%) + 1.2(-50%) + 0.6(-50%) + 0.3(-50%) + 0.15(+50%) + 0.3(+100%) + 0.12(-60%) + 0.08(-60%)

= 300.5 dom

 

I have not been optimistic, just to see than 300+ is very likely.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[Fullbuster]

3 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It reached 70% much faster than BVS. 

 

That's scary.

[baumer]

I don't even know where SLOP will finish. A 20% drop is pretty awesome. Could just do something like 375?

[Blaze Heatnix]

Is Sausage Party going to have good WOM?

 

It got a B on Cinemascore, its average critic rating on RT is 6.9/10, RT audience score is alredy smaller than SS RT audience score. I'm curious about it.

 

Are people liking SP?

Edited August 13, 2016 by Blaze Heatnix

[WrathOfHan]

8 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

SS will probably do about 25 next weekend

wat

[tonytr87]

1 hour ago, Spaghetti said:

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND PROJECTIONS

1. Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.) - $45,100,000 (-66.3%) - $10,599 PTA - $224,205,000 - 2
2. Sausage Party (Sony / Columbia) - $32,000,000 (--) - $10,312 PTA - $32,000,000 - NEW
3. Pete's Dragon (Disney) - $20,300,000 (--) - $5,455 PTA - $20,200,000 - NEW
4. Jason Bourne (Universal) - $13,300,000 (-40.7%) - $3,770 PTA - $126,462,000 - 3
5. Bad Moms (STX) - $11,300,000 (-19.3%) - $3,545 PTA - $71,311,000 - 3
6. The Secret Life of Pets (Universal) - $9,000,000 (-21.7%) - $3,042 PTA - $336,102,000 - 6
7. Star Trek Beyond (Paramount) - $6,700,000 (-33.2%) - $2,600 PTA - $139,580,000 - 4
8. Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) - $6,400,000 (--) - $4,188 PTA - $6,400,00 - NEW
9. Nine Lives (EuropaCorp) - $3,550,000 (-43.2%) - $1,568 PTA - $13,601,000 - 2
10. Lights Out (Warner Bros. / New Line) - $3,100,000 (-48.4%) - $1,877 PTA - $61,015,000 - 4

• Nerve (Lionsgate) - $2,700,000 (-44.5%) - $1,519 PTA - $33,148,000 - 3
• Ghostbusters (Sony / Columbia) - $2,300,000 (-50.8%) - $1,601 PTA - $121,709,000 - 5
• Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox) - $1,950,000 (-54.9%) - $1,260 PTA - $58,624,000 - 4
• Finding Dory (Disney) - $1,450,000 (-25.9%) - $2,298 PTA - $476,863,000 - 9
• Cafe Society (Lionsgate) - $950,000 (-40.8%) - $2,088 PTA - $8,493,000 - 5
• Hell or High Water (Lionsgate) - $625,000 (--) - $19,531 PTA - $625,000 - NEW
• Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party (Quality Flix) - $315,000 (-66.1%) - $963 PTA - $12,005,000 - 5
• The BFG (Disney) - $280,000 (-5.4%) - $1,451 PTA - $53,311,000 - 7
• The Jungle Book (Disney) - $185,000 (-14.7%) - $995 PTA - $362,986,000 - 18
• Captain America: Civil War (Disney) - $180,000 (-13.5%) - $1,111 PTA - $407,509,000 - 15
• Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) - $145,000 (-22%) - $930 PTA - $102,552,000 - 8
• Gleason (Open Road) - $140,000 (+25%) - $946 PTA - $456,000 - 3
• Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate / Summit) - $130,000 (+154.9%) - $861 PTA - $64,853,000 - 10
• Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie (Fox Searchlight) - $110,000 (-67%) - $1,209 PTA - $4,448,000 - 4
• Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (Fox) - $105,000 (-62.1%) - $755 PTA - $45,377,000 - 6
• Alice Through the Looking Glass - $52,500 (-44.2%) - $610 PTA - $76,965,000 - 12

SPAGHETTI'S WEEKEND OBSERVATIONS

• Suicide Squad is still on track to blow past $300m. It should stabilize somewhat after next weekend, and BvS is definitely within solid reach, especially with summer weekdays still holding up, albeit not as strongly.
• Sausage Party is off to a strong start, but seems like it could fall victim to frontloading. While $100m will be a tough battle, it is not out of the question, and even an $80m+ finish for this is excellent, considering the fates of many R-rated animated films. Likely enough for Sony to give Rogen forgiveness for the Interview debacle. 
• Between Pete's Dragon, as well as The BFG and The Jungle Book, Disney is trying to set up a "sweet, kind, orphan human taken in by non-human entity" Cinematic Universe. Sadly, Pete was closer to the former than the latter, but its relatively smaller budget should offset some of the big damage. Even so, the marketing never made it seem like a major family event.
• Bad Moms' hold in the face of another R-rated comedy was pretty tremendous. It looks like the film will cross $100m when all is said and done, making for another really nice late summer breakout.
• Star Trek Beyond finally had a good hold, but it sadly seems to be too little, too late. At least it should be able to get ahead of Apocalypse.
• Despite a good hold this weekend, $500m for Finding Dory has been dead and gone for a while - its projected $480-490m is hardly something to shake a stick at, however.
• Hell or High Water is off to a strong start for a late August indie. With strong reviews and opportunities for future expansion, a $10m+ total is very much possible.

 

Wasn't The Interview all Sony's fault for pulling it from most theaters? 

[bcf26]

Wow, Look at leggiest movie of the summer

 

 

 

 

 

[tonytr87]

 

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Is Sausage Party going to have good WOM?

 

It got a B on Cinemascore, its average critic rating on RT is 6.9/10, RT audience score is alredy smaller than SS RT audience score. I'm curious about it.

 

Are people liking SP?

 

I loved it. It's one of the smarter "dumb comedies" to come around in a while. 

 

Edit: At the same time, I can see auds who see it being turned off by how far it goes. It takes things pretty far. But that's what I loved about it. 

Edited August 13, 2016 by tonytr87

[a2k]

User Score on RT for SAUSAGE PARTY already down to 69% (apt ).

SS is at 70% after 1 week.

 

PETE'S DRAGON on 77%.

SS didn't start far off at 74%.

 

So basically big difference between critics and users.

 

On OD,

SS 27% 74%

SP 83% 69%

PD 85% 77%

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[tonytr87]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

User Score on RT for SAUSAGE PARTY already down to 69% (apt ).

SS is at 70% after 1 week.

 

Did you see it?

[baumer]

I know one opinion doesn't mean everyone will feel this way but I didn't laugh at all In SP. I don't THINK it will have strong wom.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Did you see it?

 

No, haven't see either.

But 69% is apt for SP. Hope it stay right there. There's where I like it.