Weekend Thread | est. DS 43 | Trolls 35 | Arrival 24 | Alm.X-Mas 15.56 | Hacksaw 10.77 | Account. 4.57 |

[La Binoche]

Deadline update http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

 

Based on late night estimates, Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange is now looking at a $14.9M Friday, and a 3-day between $38.6M-$41.3M. At the high end, its cume by Sunday could be at $151.3M.  If those figures remain on track, Doctor Strange will best the $36.6M second weekend of Thor: The Dark World, Marvel’s previous fall  live-action supehero title, by 13%. On a running cume basis by Sunday, Doctor Strange will be pacing ahead of Asgard’s hammer man by an extra $5M.

 

DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls from 20th Century Fox is looking at $34.5M at 4,066 which if those figures remain intact will post the second best November sophomore hold for a feature toon from the Glendale studio (non-Aardman), just under Megamind‘s $35M.  Trolls also whips the second weekend of Fox’s pre-Thanksgiving hit last year The Peanuts Movie which grossed $24M.

 

 

However, the biggest surprise is coming from Paramount’s alien drama Arrival starring Amy Adams which is now looking at an estimated $22.3MFSS after a $8.9M Friday. This spells good news for Adams who is choosing Arrival over Nocturnal Animals as her awards season contender this year according to sources. A few weeks ago, rival distribution executives were rubbing their chins over the prospects for this indie title directed by Denis Villeneuve and acquired by Paramount at the 2014 Cannes Film Festival for $20M (that includes China and domestic). Forecasts had it at $15M, with some projections below that.  For a film that also comes with an estimated $40M P&A spend per rivals, this is a good start for Arrival, and the studio is hoping that its 94% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score carries this to greater multiples this holiday season. CinemaScore is a B, but given the older female appeal of this movie, we could see a better than expected 2.9 multiple which typically comes with that grade.

Arrival is not Gravity, and it isn’t The Martian as far as spectacle, rather it’s more emotionally driven at a slower pace, and with a twist. That said, Paramount marketed this movie like it was an everyman tentpole, pushing out TV spots during the summer Olympics as well as games 1,5,6, and 7 of the World Series, the Presidential Debates, the Walking Dead season premiere and NFL games. Arrival had an extensive airport outdoor presence in New York and Los Angeles playing on the title “Arrival”. A slew of festivals — London, TIFF, Fantastic Fest, Chicago Int’l, Philadelphia, Savannah, Spectrefest, and Beyond Fest–fueled critical and awards voter word of mouth. A 24-hour YouTube Masthead featured a :60 spot and drew 235M impressions. This Common Ground video piece, which launched with media support via Facebook and YouTube (1.7M), was in an effort to go after females:

When it came to Mel Gibson’s WWII epic Hacksaw Ridge, it was Lionsgate plan to benefit off of the Veterans Day holiday and it’s bound to be a distribution plan that’s well executed with a second FSS that’s eased an amazing 28% for $11M in fifth place and a 10-day of $32.5M.

A24’s Moonlight expands from 83 houses to 176 for $1.2M fourth weekend, near $7K per theater and running cume of $4.6M. Still amazing. At 46 locations, Focus Features’ Loving from Jeff Nichols is posted a strong $10K per theater at 46 sites for a $456K second weekend, $664K 10-day cume. Sony Pictures Classics opened Paul Verhoeven’s Elle at two New York locations for a per theater of $22K, estimated three-day weekend of $44K.

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by La Binoche

[MinaTakla]

New update DEADLINE: ARRIVAL SOARS TO 22M+

 

However, the biggest surprise is coming from Paramount’s alien drama Arrival starring Amy Adams which is now looking at an estimated $22.3MFSS after a $8.9M Friday. This spells good news for Adams who is choosing Arrival over Nocturnal Animals as her awards season contender this year according to sources. A few weeks ago, rival distribution executives were rubbing their chins over the prospects for this indie title directed by Denis Villeneuve and acquired by Paramount at the 2014 Cannes Film Festival for $20M (that includes China and domestic). Forecasts had it at $15M, with some projections below that.  For a film that also comes with an estimated $40M P&A spend per rivals, this is a good start for Arrival, and the studio is hoping that its 94% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score carries this to greater multiples this holiday season. CinemaScore is a B, but given the older female appeal of this movie, we could see a better than expected 2.9 multiple which typically comes with that grade.

Arrival is not Gravity, and it isn’t The Martian as far as spectacle, rather it’s more emotionally driven at a slower pace, and with a twist. That said, Paramount marketed this movie like it was an everyman tentpole, pushing out TV spots during the summer Olympics as well as games 1,5,6, and 7 of the World Series, the Presidential Debates, the Walking Dead season premiere and NFL games. Arrival had an extensive airport outdoor presence in New York and Los Angeles playing on the title “Arrival”. A slew of festivals — London, TIFF, Fantastic Fest, Chicago Int’l, Philadelphia, Savannah, Spectrefest, and Beyond Fest–fueled critical and awards voter word of mouth. A 24-hour YouTube Masthead featured a :60 spot and drew 235M impressions. This Common Ground video piece, which launched with media support via Facebook and YouTube (1.7M), was in an effort to go after females.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

Edited November 12, 2016 by MinaTakla

[DAJK]

Any news on Billy Lynn?

[fmpro]

Great numbers all over 

[MinaTakla]

Chart by DHD:

 

1). Doctor Strange  (SONY), 3,882 theaters / $14.9M Fri. (-54%)/ 3-day cume: $38.6M-$41.3M (-51%) /Total cume: $151.3M/Wk 1

2). Trolls  (DWA/20^th Century Fox), 4.066 theaters (+6) / $12.1M Fri. (-2%) / 3-day cume: $34.5M (-26%) /Total Cume: $93.5M/Wk 1

3). Arrival  (PAR), 2,317 theaters / $8.9M Fri. (includes $1.45m previews) / 3-day cume: $22.3M/ Wk 1

4). Almost Christmas  (UNI), 2,376 theaters / $6.1M Fri. (includes $500K previews) / 3-day cume: $15.5M/ Wk 1

5). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,971 theaters / $3.8M Fri. (-28%) /$5.9M Sat./$3.5M Sun/ 3-day cume: $11M (-28%)/Total: $32.5M/ Wk 2

6). The Accountant (WB), 2,342 theaters (-346) / $1.5M Fri. (-14%)/3-day cume: $4.5M (-23%) / Total cume: $77.7M / Wk 5

7).  Shut In  (Euro), 2,886 theaters / $1.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.8M/ Wk 1

10). Jack Reacher: Never Go Back  (PAR), 3,079 theaters (-701) / $1.1M Fri. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $3.4M (-37%) / Total cume: $54.7M / Wk 4

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

Edited November 12, 2016 by MinaTakla

[Kraken]

Amazing numbers for Arrival but I'm positive it'll go even higher (closer to 25 than to 22)

[chrisman0606]

5 minutes ago, Kraken said:

Amazing numbers for Arrival but I'm positive it'll go even higher (closer to 25 than to 22)

It might go down on Saturday because last Time Veterans Day was on a Friday was in 2011, and the day after that on Saturday the new releases declined, so Deadline prediction would be accurate. 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2011-11-12&order=DESC&p=.htm

Edited November 12, 2016 by chrisman0606

[Kraken]

2 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

It might go down on Saturday because last Time Veterans Day was on a Friday was in 2011, and the day after that on Saturday the new releases declined, so Deadline prediction would be accurate. 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2011-11-12&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

I was aware of that but I'm hoping the difference in reception between Arrival and those that Jack and Jill and Immortals will help it at least stay flat. Just a hunch (or wishful thinking)

[Truckasaurus]

Remember when Deadline said Hacksaw Ridge would drop 50% on Veteran's Day weekend?

[Olive]

Moonlight (A24) 176 theaters (+93) $417K Fri. (+10%)  3-day cume: $1.2M (-2%) / Total: $4.6M / Wk 4

Loving (FOCUS) 46 theaters (+42) $160K Fri. (+190%)/$10k pta/3-day cume: $456k (+186%) / Total: $664k / Wk 2

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (SONY) 2 theaters / $57K Fri./$74k pta/3-day cume: $147K/ Wk 1

Elle (SPC) 2 theaters/ $15K Fri./$22K PTA/3-day cume: $44k/ Wk 1

[DAJK]

Not bad for Billy Lynn to be honest.

[baumer]

Great hold for Hacksaw but I was hoping for more.  Greed I guess on my part but with such amazing WOM, I was hoping for more.

[RobinHood26]

4 minutes ago, Baumer liked Blair Witch said:

Great hold for Hacksaw but I was hoping for more.  Greed I guess on my part but with such amazing WOM, I was hoping for more.

 

Interested to see how this fairs in the rest of the year. Will it fizzle out? Too many films? Or can this baby catch some legs

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

Interested to see how this fairs in the rest of the year. Will it fizzle out? Too many films? Or can this baby catch some legs

 

I think it catches legs.  If you have not seen it you don't know the sheer power it possesses.  It's such a powerful film.

[GuardianDevil]

4 minutes ago, Baumer liked Blair Witch said:

 

I think it catches legs.  If you have not seen it you don't know the sheer power it possesses.  It's such a powerful film.

Baumer,you and I go back to the Box Office Mojo forums almost 14 years and I respect your opinion on movies.

 

I'm not in your Rogue One club,but I'll take your advice on this and check it out with my wife this week.

[eXtacy]

Not surprised all the numbers went up... Deadline is awful with early.

 

14.9m

17.2m +15%

9.9m -45%

42.m

 

40.5-42m probably the range for Doctor Strange. Not sure how deadline calculates 38m on the low end from that Friday number. Would require it to stay completely flat today/slight decrease Saturday.

 

[MCKillswitch123]

HAIL KING VILLENEUVE AND GODDESS ADAMS. Arrival is further more proof of how incompetent Paramount is. It should've came out in 3000 theaters, no question. Fucking 10 Cloverfield Lane is the only thing they didn't fuck up hilariously this year. Looking pretty decent too for Almost Christmas and Billy Lynn. Strange w/a good hold for a superhero blockbuster, Trolls looking excellent too. Ridge very good as well, but deserves even better.

[miketheavenger]

24 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Not surprised all the numbers went up... Deadline is awful with early.

 

14.9m

17.2m +15%

9.9m -45%

42.m

 

40.5-42m probably the range for Doctor Strange. Not sure how deadline calculates 38m on the low end from that Friday number. Would require it to stay completely flat today/slight decrease Saturday.

 

That's actually very likely because it's Veteran's Day and this usually happens then.

[kayumanggi]

Another great hold for THE ACCOUNTANT.

[eXtacy]

23 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

That's actually very likely because it's Veteran's Day and this usually happens then.

 

Last time Vets day was on Friday films still increased 10-20% Saturday