Weekend BO- Actuals Mo 18.53, OCP 16.89, FB 10.43, Arr 5.58, NA 3.16, MbtS 3.13

[filmlover]

It's kinda amazing how the big studios have fallen by the wayside in the Oscar race in recent years. Paramount (Arrival, Fences, Silence) is the only one of The Big 6 looking to make it in while WB (Sully) has a 50/50 shot and everyone else looks to sit out.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's kinda amazing how the big studios have fallen by the wayside in the Oscar race in recent years. Paramount (Arrival, Fences, Silence) is the only one of The Big 6 looking to make it in while WB (Sully) has a 50/50 shot and everyone else looks to sit out.

That is because Paramount is no longer a part of The Big 5 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

That is because Paramount is no longer a part of The Big 5 

Lionsgate could have three movies nominated for BP. How does that make you feel?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

That is because Paramount is no longer a part of The Big 5 

lol.

 

But it must bring you such delight to see Lionsgate/Summit is looking to go all the way with THE Best Picture frontrunner this year (the last time they got nominations were The Hurt Locker and Precious in '09, and that was back when they were separate studios).

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Lionsgate could have three movies nominated for BP. How does that make you feel?

Not a part of The Big 5 either 

 

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

lol.

 

But it must bring you such delight to see Lionsgate/Summit is looking to go all the way with THE Best Picture frontrunner this year (the last time they got nominations were The Hurt Locker and Precious in '09, and that was back when they were separate studios).

LLL will be the big loser of the Oscar night. I can feel it. It will get a fuck ton of noms, tho.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Not a part of The Big 5 either 

 

LLL will be the big loser of the Oscar night. I can feel it. It will get a fuck ton of noms, tho.

Wait until you see the movie. I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a near-sweep with the 12 or so nominations it will get (this thing is going to walk away with all the tech awards it's up for). Plus, what could really challenge it at this point other than maybe Silence? And that will be lucky to make $50M in total.

[Kraken]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's kinda amazing how the big studios have fallen by the wayside in the Oscar race in recent years. Paramount (Arrival, Fences, Silence) is the only one of The Big 6 looking to make it in while WB (Sully) has a 50/50 shot and everyone else looks to sit out.

 

Tbf Fox and Universal leave most of that to Searchlight (two recent wins) and Focus and I think Jackie will get in for the former and Loving might have a chance for the latter. And Fox got Martian and Revenant in last year (plus Brooklyn). Disney is the one I think won't challenge anything besides animated in the near future unless they make another WALL-E, Up.

[Joel M]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's kinda amazing how the big studios have fallen by the wayside in the Oscar race in recent years. Paramount (Arrival, Fences, Silence) is the only one of The Big 6 looking to make it in while WB (Sully) has a 50/50 shot and everyone else looks to sit out.

 

It's definately true this year but not in general. WB, Paramount and Sony are always there and if we count Seachlight and Focus as Fox's and Universal's oscar branches (which is exactly what they are), big studios still run the show more often than not. It's just that 2016 is one of those years that many of their "sure bets" flopped big time like Birth of the Nation and Billy Lynn or never got enough traction like Loving, Nocturnal Animals which I assume were Focus/Universal priorities for this oscar season.

[filmlover]

Just now, Kraken said:

 

Tbf Fox and Universal leave most of that to Searchlight (two recent wins) and Focus and I think Jackie will get in for the former and Loving might have a chance for the latter. And Fox got Martian and Revenant in last year (plus Brooklyn). Disney is the one I think won't challenge anything besides animated in the near future unless they make another WALL-E, Up.

Jackie's looking increasingly DOA for a Best Picture nomination, as missing NBR, BFCA, and AFI isn't good news.

[Kraken]

Just now, filmlover said:

Jackie's looking increasingly DOA for a Best Picture nomination, as missing NBR, BFCA, and AFI isn't good news.

 

Mmmm. Great news for Emma, I guess.

[MCKillswitch123]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wait until you see the movie. I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a near-sweep with the 12 or so nominations it will get (this thing is going to walk away with all the tech awards it's up for). Plus, what could really challenge it at this point other than maybe Silence? And that will be lucky to make $50M in total.

 

If it's nominated for Cinematography, that's Arrival's to lose. And I think Moonlight could still pose a threat to Best Picture, mostly thanks to the #OscarsSoWhite thing.

[filmlover]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

If it's nominated for Cinematography, that's Arrival's to lose. And I think Moonlight could still pose a threat to Best Picture, mostly thanks to the #OscarsSoWhite thing.

Viola's inevitable win will be the makeup for the #OscarsSoWhite controversy.

 

I loved Moonlight but it really doesn't stand it a chance at a Best Picture win. Too small + too quiet.

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Wait until you see the movie. I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a near-sweep with the 12 or so nominations it will get (this thing is going to walk away with all the tech awards it's up for). Plus, what could really challenge it at this point other than maybe Silence? And that will be lucky to make $50M in total.

When has box office mattered at the Oscars?  

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

When has box office mattered at the Oscars?  

We're overdue for a "popular" movie to take Best Picture (since Argo was 4 years ago). This checks off all of the boxes, especially after a rough year.

Edited December 9, 2016 by filmlover

[BadAtGender]

Here's something kinda neat, box office-wise. The Boy and Dirty Grampa opened on the same day and had opening weekends within $400k of each other. Their final totals were also within $400k of each other. If you add in The 5th Wave, you have three films that opened on the same date with less than a million separating their opening weekends and final totals.

 

It's likely that's never happened before in box office history.

[cookie]

La La Land is doing huge in the markets that would easily eat it up, would that necessarily translate to big appeal nationwide?

Edited December 9, 2016 by cookie

[Eevin]

2 minutes ago, cookie said:

La La Land is doing huge in the markets that would easily eat it up, would that necessarily translate to big appeal nationwide?

Perhaps not in some circles, but I think the fact that it's a crowdpleasing, extremely well-reviewed original musical in a year with a lot of of often convoluted, poorly reviewed blockbusters is appealing in and of itself. It could provide a breath of fresh air for people who enjoy quality entertainment and don't feel up to watching something dark/subversive like Manchester or Nocturnal Animals. 

[narniadis]

Short term memory then on my part - I just remember thinking my under 400m for Dory was an oddity particularly when it came to the game - Both of them did over perform my personal expectations but Dory seemed to fall in line with most industry expectations by the time the OW came around (biggest animated opening, 400m etc) there was a lot of 500m talk once the OW was over, but as we know its weekend holds weren't out of this world and once Pets opened the 500m dream was dead.

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, cookie said:

La La Land is doing huge in the markets that would easily eat it up, would that necessarily translate to big appeal nationwide?

I saw the movie at an early screening Wednesday and it is a total crowdpleaser. This won't be another Steve Jobs or The Master.

[CJohn]

While I wait for more numbers, I am gonna watch Suicide Squad Extended Cut, which I got on Wednesday.