ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not going to get too excited yet, but a very reliable and knowledgeable @lobogotti dropped a number I am too hesitant to say at this point over on the HSX boards.  I'm hoping for it and want it to have a chance.  

 

 

 

The tease!

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not going to get too excited yet, but a very reliable and knowledgeable @lobogotti dropped a number I am too hesitant to say at this point over on the HSX boards.  I'm hoping for it and want it to have a chance.  

Why not say it? You already made it clear how this had 0% chance of not beating Civil War's OW, so maybe this # will prop that up for you. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Plain Old Tele]

22 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

 

THIS WILL BE A DAY LONG REMEMBERED.

 

Welcome aboard, man! Glad to have you among us.  

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The statistics highly suggest it. Only one adult skewing 100m+ opening blockbuster has ever hit the 3x threshold. 

December opener. Legs are going to be just fine. Hell, it should be close to 400M after NYs weekend. I just don't see how it misses 3 multi, my guess 3.4-3.5 final multiplier.

[Mattrek]

24 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

 

Is 17 likes a record for a first post on the forums? Welcome!

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not going to get too excited yet, but a very reliable and knowledgeable @lobogotti dropped a number I am too hesitant to say at this point over on the HSX boards.  I'm hoping for it and want it to have a chance.  

 

West Coast be coming in like the Cadillac of the Skies?

 

 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I'm listening very well. The problem with your reasoning and your "effect" is that the only movies that it seems to matter and apply to, are immune. Therefore, what use is there for your "effect" if it doesn't apply to any relevant movie before 2020?

 

Anyway, the whole idea behind the discussion is that you're basically saying holidays don't guarantee legs for normal big openers, and I'm saying (as well as many others) that it does. 

 

We'll see about that very soon! 

 

You don't understand at all what I'm saying. The effect is most of the reason for large multipliers in December. The fact that the effect doesn't apply to TFA and probably doesn't apply to Rogue One means that they'll have summer-esque multipliers.

 

The December effect (low opening and similar total gross which leads to a much better multiplier) is seen in franchises like Mission Impossible as I mentioned before, and others. The absence of it is the whole point.

[Captain H]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Ghost Protocol did $15m on its limited release, enough for third place, it was risky putting it in December but it did pay off beating Sherlock Holmes domestically and internationally. 

 

I wonder if Disney or WB would put a superhero film in December? The last time we've had a superhero film that broke out big in December was Superman just under 40 years ago. 

If Cameron is finished with the Avatar sequels (And he's really making 4 of those) before 2020, I think the December spot is locked for space operas until 2023 or so. If not, I can see Marvel experimenting with a December release for their Phase 4.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Captain H

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why not say it? You already made it clear how this had 0% chance of not beating Civil War's OW, so maybe this # will prop that up for you. 

 

Are you just going to lie and make things up at this point?  My prediction for Rogue One is under Civil War's opening weekend.  That is well documented on here. 

[Plain Old Tele]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not going to get too excited yet, but a very reliable and knowledgeable @lobogotti dropped a number I am too hesitant to say at this point over on the HSX boards.  I'm hoping for it and want it to have a chance.  

 

I saw his comment.

 

Yeah... no. Not even gonna hope for that. If it even gets close...

 

 

[Valonqar]

Logobotti thinks R1 stands a pretty good chance for 80M+

 

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3

 

 

Edited December 17, 2016 by Valonqar

[Admiral Ackbar]

16 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Welcome!  You picked a perfect time to join.  If you can make it through this weekend and still want to stay, you'll love it here.

 

Cheers, yeah there's been a few times when I thought of joining (even back when TFA opened), hopefully I enjoy it here

 

13 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 great weekend to join.

And I think you will find you are not alone with being obsessed by numbers.

 

Do not be shy to ask questions about whatever or .....

 

Have a lot of fun!

 

Ahaha thanks mate, although i'm fairly clueless when it comes to patterns and predictions with US box office but it seems like so are a lot people for this weekend especially

[EmpireCity]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

West Coast be coming in like the Cadillac of the Skies?

 

 

 

"I can touch that number, touch it..... I felt its heat......"

[Daxtreme]

Just now, hw64 said:

 

You don't understand at all what I'm saying. The effect is most of the reason for large multipliers in December. The fact that the effect doesn't apply to TFA and probably doesn't apply to Rogue One means that they'll have summer-esque multipliers.

 

The December effect (low opening and similar total gross which leads to a much better multiplier) is seen in franchises like Mission Impossible as I mentioned before, and others. The absence of it is the whole point.

 

That remains to be seen. Your sample size is 0 if RO and TFA are immune. There aren't any other big December openers that have summer legs.

 

Not big enough

 

You're totally entitled to your opinion though. But I'm done arguing because you just don't have the data size to back it up.

[Mattrek]

11 minutes ago, robertman2 said:

They look like dogs

 

You've got some strange looking dogs in your area

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Logobotti thinks R1 stands a pretty good chance for 80M

 

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3

 

 

 

Who is this logobotti and what does he do?

 

 

[Captain H]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Logobotti thinks R1 stands a pretty good chance for 80M

 

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3

 

 

 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

I saw his comment.

 

Yeah... no. Not even gonna hope for that. If it even gets close...

 

 

 

I'm in the same boat with you, but fun to think about.  

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

West Coast be coming in like the Cadillac of the Skies?

 

 

 

Or like when Baze tried to [REDACTED] but [REDACTED] happened and then [REDACTED] saved him.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Are you just going to lie and make things up at this point?  My prediction for Rogue One is under Civil War's opening weekend.  That is well documented on here. 

Then your anger this past week at those of us who were saying it was very unlikely to be in that OW range seems very confusing.