ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[That One Girl]

Delusion.

 

[terrestrial]

I just remembered... I think:

nevertheless a lot of $130m+ prediction that were flowing around,.... didn't BO.com since quite some time say $155m OW?

I think in the same long-range (not the first one, that had $135m $405), was a $460m or $455m final to find.

 

The resons given for the first one, see $135m OW:

Quote

PROS:

• Star Wars. Enough said.
• Darth Vader. Enough said.
• But just to say more anyway… this film takes place during the roughly 25-year period between the prequel trilogy and the “original” trilogy. Darth Vader is still alive, the Death Star is being constructed, Luke and Han and Leia aren’t in the picture yet, and a small rebel force is attempting to take down the Empire. With the most financially successful franchise in movie history behind it, Rogue One should be a lock for big dollars.

CONS:

• Will audiences come out to see a one-time spinoff the way they did for all seven of the “in sequence” films? The characters in this one are basically entirely new. The Force Awakens found box office success mixed new characters with the existing Han and Leia and Luke, while the prequel trilogy did too by showing younger versions of beloved characters like Obi-Wan Kenobi. Except for brief glimpses of Darth Vader seen in the trailer, that familiarity won’t be present for this installment.

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

I would say a 3.5x multi is unlikely, but possible. Don't think that's the bar for success though.

The bar for success was like 300 DOM. Who was ever talking about a "bar for success?" 

 

 

[SteveJaros]

54 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

 

Youre the one making these retarded predictions.

 

What a clown. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The bar for success was like 300 DOM. Who was ever talking about a "bar for success?" 

 

 

 

Delusion.

[Daxtreme]

Jesus, I can't wait for the numbers to shut MovieMan right up  Although you'll probably come up and say that it wasn't "that far away from your predictions" after editing them afterward or some shit...

 

A huge drop on the 2nd week-end doesn't mean anything for R1 btw, we know it's coming. 

 

It's like looking at a summer monday, witnessing the big drop and going "LUL - DAT MONDAY DROP, MOVIE DED" well no shit bro, all movies drop big on mondays...? R1 will drop big on dec 24 we all know that, and it will hurt the week-end significantly, but it will rebound after.

 

You seem to think that a big opening in December automatically cancels/plummets daily % numbers... but it just doesn't.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

The bar for success was like 300 DOM. Who was ever talking about a "bar for success?" 

 

 

I don't know. Just seems like some people are moving the goalposts here.

[DeeCee]

11 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

 

 

wait.... wrong franchise  

 

 

Close enough. He was good friends with Cushing plus he kind of played the same character in Star Wars. 

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really, it's like some of you forgot all sense and logic when remembering how box office works. 155m openers and 50m openers will NEVER behave the same, I don't care if they open in a brand new 13th month of the year. 

 

That's why Kong had 4.3x and RO will have like 3.2x or something close to that.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Daxtreme said:

Jesus, I can't wait for the numbers to shut MovieMan right up  Although you'll probably come up and say that it wasn't "that far away from your predictions" after editing them afterward or some shit...

 

A huge drop on the 2nd week-end doesn't mean anything for R1 btw, we know it's coming. 

 

It's like looking at a summer monday, witnessing the big drop and going "LUL - DAT MONDAY DROP, MOVIE DED" well no shit bro, all movies drop big on mondays...? R1 will drop big on dec 24 we all know that, and it will hurt the week-end significantly, but it will rebound after.

 

You seem to think that a big opening in December automatically cancels/plummets daily % numbers... but it just doesn't.

If it's dropping 65%+ next weekend yeah it kinda does. I mean obviously it won't have any 2.2-2.5x multi like most films that drop like that in their second weekend would, but a 3x multi is highly likely. 

[SteveJaros]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Some of you may want to consider how the last big opener this week in December when Xmas weekend fell on the same days as this year took a nasty 58% tumble in its second frame:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=51&p=.htm

 

In 2011, Christmas weekend fell on the same days as this year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=51&p=.htm

[MovieMan89]

Just now, SteveJaros said:

 

In 2011, Christmas weekend fell on the same days as this year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2011&wknd=51&p=.htm

Equally bad holds, despite all those holdovers being sub 20m. 

[Jandrew]

Empire Strikes Back is on TNT. Easily my favorite one period.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

That's why Kong had 4.3x and RO will have like 3.2x or something close to that.

Far more reasonable. The predictions around here though are insinuating multis around the 3.5x mark though. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Really, it's like some of you forgot all sense and logic when remembering how box office works. 155m openers and 50m openers will NEVER behave the same, I don't care if they open in a brand new 13th month of the year. 

If they don't really behave the same, why bring it up at all?

[WrathOfHan]

I still have this around a 3.3x because January has a lot of movies releasing and expanding.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Again, why does it matter if it drops big 2nd weekend (like we expect) if it can make that up during the weekdays and 3rd weekend? It'll have the advantage of the holidays no matter what days CE and NYE fall on.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

If they don't really behave the same, why bring it up at all?

Because if something that opened to 50m could drop that much in its second weekend on the same days, it's a good indicator of how bad the drop for R1 could be, WOM or not. 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Again, why does it matter if it drops big 2nd weekend (like we expect) if it can make that up during the weekdays and 3rd weekend? It'll have the advantage of the holidays no matter what days CE and NYE fall on.

 

 

Stop using logic

 

Let the hate flow through them...

 

Feel it 

feel it! 

[RamblinRed]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm genuinely dumbstruck how some can think 3.5x is even remotely realistic for R1. I guess people still don't get what kind of movie TFA was, despite R1 already clearly showing it's no TFA. 

 

Looking back the last 7 yrs, every big blockbuster that was released the week before or week of Christmas and was popular made at least a 3.1X multiple over its run. That includes the Hobbit films, it includes films like MI:Protocol and Tron Legacy. alot of them made a 3.5x or better.

 

if it is liked, it is almost impossible for a tent pole type release in December not to make over a 3 multiple.

 

right now i don't see any reason that R1 won't make a 3X multiple, though time will tell. A 3.5 multiple wouldn't surprise me in the least though it will be more difficult.  

 

on Moana, I have it making around 240 give or take 5M. It is tracking pretty close to Tangled +20%.