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Dementeleus

ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Dementeleus, in Numbers and Data

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That One Girl Global Phenomenon

That One Girl

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

 

I guess that is exactly why Titanic 3D re-run in China (back in 2012), significantly out-grossed TFA (in 2016) despite the market size being 2.5 times greater in 2016 than in 2012. I guess I'm sorry TFA is just not well received in China and had terrible legs despite good opening (based on Disney hype).

Star Wars fans, you just can't have it all.

 

The Force Awakens outgrossed Avatar domestically by nearly 200M.

 

Avatar fans, you just can't have it all.

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Exactly, it does, but that's making a whole host of assumptions that aren't necessarily based on good underlying data. Assuming Rogue One would open lower than TFA was a no brainer and completely expected. Assuming it'll also hold less strongly despite a much smaller opening? Eh, I don't know about that. I'm not sure that's a fair assumption given TFA was the most anticipated film ever with a huge rush to see factor. Who is to say plenty of people want to see Rogue One but are willing to wait, in a larger percentage than waited for TFA? To me that seems logical. 

 

Im purely playing devils advocate to accepted knowledge around here because I too expect Rogue Ones multiple to be closer to 3.5 and not above TFA. But I would be remiss if I didn't point out that such an assumption is more gut level than fact based. 

 

What about the spillover effect from opening weekend sellouts? TFA had far more of it juicing the multiplier after opening weekend than Rogue One will have. We'll see how it goes. You would have to assume WOM very similar or even better for this one to end up with stronger legs than TFA. It is still too early for us to make a judgment on that, but most are assuming the WOM is not as strong. 

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75Live Global Phenomenon

75Live

Posted
Posted
Just now, K1stpierre said:

Ugh. I have no idea what on earth I'm gonna go see next week. With Passengers looking like shit and breaking my heart, I'm left with RO or Trolls.

 

Easily RO out of all 3 regardless :) 

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

Posted
Posted

There aren't really any close comparisons though. Are you going to use summer blockbusters because that's basically what Rogue One is? Or TFA because it's the same brand and same opening frame? Or various LOTR movies because of December openers and multiples and whatnot? I'm not saying it's all bad data, it'll give you an idea for sure, but your assumptions are only as good as the underlying data. What if I just decided Rogue One is very similar to Tron so I plug that in and voila I get $600M+. Or I decide it's one of the weakest Hobbits and it crawls its way to $450M.

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What about the spillover effect from opening weekend sellouts? TFA had far more of it juicing the multiplier after opening weekend than Rogue One will have. We'll see how it goes. You would have to assume WOM very similar or even better for this one to end up with stronger legs than TFA. It is still too early for us to make a judgment on that, but most are assuming the WOM is not as strong. 

 

See, I like where you went with that, and I agree sellout could have made a difference but we didn't necessarily see that in the data for TFA. It wasn't like a massive Monday followed by a big drop Tuesday and Wednesday. It had strong week days all around indicating more consistent demand. I also think theaters have been able to expand showings to meet demand much better in the past.

 

Maybe the fun factor isn't as high to non fans for Rogue One but I wouldn't assume it has worse word of mouth by any means. I think general audience reactions will be less enthusiastic than fans compared to TFA though. Still if people are calling it a good movie, those who wanted to see it will see it. Just a matter of how many people that is.

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K1stpierre Global Phenomenon

K1stpierre

Posted
Posted
Just now, cannastop said:

Or Sing. :ph34r:

 

Actually yeah, I forgot about that one. It's surprisingly getting decent reviews.

 

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Maybe you will love Passengers. Give it a shot. 

This will probably end up what I'll do. I just have to do it for JLaw's and Chris's sake. Even if it means the sacrifice of my eyeballs, for I'll more than likely put a fork to them and rip them out.

 

5 minutes ago, 75live said:

 

Easily RO out of all 3 regardless :) 

:unsure: 

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Your theater was equivalent to $80m on Friday right?

Yes but that was mainly due to a crazy strong Thursday. True Friday was $34.5M, so this is a pretty good increase.

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75Live Global Phenomenon

75Live

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, K1stpierre said:

 

 

This will probably end up what I'll do. I just have to do it for JLaw's and Chris's sake. Even if it means the sacrifice of my eyeballs, for I'll more than likely put a fork to them and rip them out.

 

:unsure: 

 

well I am trying to keep your eyes right where they are :P 

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NCsoft Box Office Gold

NCsoft

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

The Force Awakens outgrossed Avatar domestically by nearly 200M.

 

Avatar fans, you just can't have it all.

 

Oh my god, a nostalgia driven film from the biggest established franchise ever in NA return for form with the first sequel in 33 years with the trio returning outgrossed a original film (no established franchise, no known character, no film stars) by 93M in adjusted gross , I am so impressed?

 

In addition, I am talking about the Re-run of Titanic in China, so unless a re-run of TFA in North America signifciantly outgrossed Avatar's entire gross or something, your comparison is completely unmatched! You're making it sound like Avatar (high grossing film domestically from 2009-2015) did really bad domestically?

In even further addition, it is not like TFA is widely regarded as a better film than Avatar here in NA (unlike in China, where Avatar is perceived as a much superior film), let's not forget, Avatar was nominated for 9 Oscars, including best director and best picture, best picture by Producers Guild (PGA), best director by the Directors guild of America (DGA), while winning best picture and best director at Golden globes. TFA on the other hand, missed pretty much all best picture nomination, and lost best visual effect to Ex Machina :lol:(the only award TFA had a realistic chance of winning).

I'm sorry but the idea that Chinese people are stupid for liking Avatar makes me mad (you did not make this statement, but the person I replied to did.)

Edited by NCsoft
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