ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Arlborn]

I'm gone for a day and I got 80 pages to read from this thread?! Jesus H Christ guys! There had better be some entertaining meltdowns somewhere in there.

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

 

Also, 150M+ OW = EVENT

 

TFA, TA and JW are really offended now. Really. 

 

C'mon, 150+M is strong but it isn't an event. Give real event movies some credit. Now, if R1 had insane legs a la Avatar and reached insane numbers despite non-event opening, than it would become an event. But opening is very strong/excellent. 

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

TFA, TA and JW are really offended now. Really. 

 

C'mon, 150+M is strong but it isn't an event. Give real event movies some credit. Now, if R1 had insane legs a la Avatar and reached insane numbers despite non-event opening, than it would become an event. But opening is very strong/excellent. 

 

 

Its not a huge event but a Star War Spinoff is heading to become the biggest film of the year domestically... 

[JonathanLB]

Yes it is an event. All Star Wars movies are event movies. So are many other blockbusters. People need to stop confusing event movie with cultural phenomenons. There's a HUGE difference. 

[MCKillswitch123]

10 minutes ago, SWXII said:

Disney will likely look seriously at moving the franchise to summer after this. Especially with a new Maunder Minimum looming. 

 

#globalcooling

 

No way, having Star Wars in Christmas is the perfect way for Disney to completely dominate the holidays. And honestly, I love the idea of SW becoming a Christmas staple.

 

The only time I see that happening is 2018, when Han Solo and Avatar 2 both come out. If Rogue One had crushed expectations, I think Disney would have the balls to have HS go in December, but w/RO performing more down to Earth (still crazy business though), I don't think they'll be confident enough for that.

 

And @Valonqar, you do recognize that, including RO, only 14 movies have done over 150M DOM OW, right? It absolutely is an event. Those three you mention - TFA, JW and TA - I categorize them as mega events/juggernaut events, which is like the final boss version of the event.

Edited December 18, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[RamblinRed]

Data to this point suggests strong word of mouth, but you really have to wait a week or so to confirm that for sure.

 

It is almost uncanny that it's audience reaction scores on both RT and Metacritic are almost identical to TFA (Metacrtiic's user scores are higher for R1). Posttrak had an 88% recommend, a very good number. Which suggests strong WOM

Also, deadline reported that R1 broke the combined twitter hashtag count on Twitter and Instagram on Thursday. 

 

I don't expect it to do TFA's insane multiplies (especially given a 248 open), but i'll be surprised if it does less than a 3X. That seems unlikely given the Holiday timeframe. I'm thinking a 3.5x

 

the difference in schools being out tomorrow (37% vs 73% last year) will make this fall a little harder than TFA early this week but kids also go back slightly later in January so that combined with some bad weather this weekend is likely to give it a slight boost in legs.

 

Could also be fun to watch how close Disney gets to $3B DOM by Dec 31. Don't think it will make it, but it could be pretty close - I think it will be over $2.9B. Disney is likely to be just a hair short of $2.7B after this weekend. Needing a little over $300MM from R1, Moana and DS from Monday to Dec 31.

 

As always i'll be interested to see the actuals on Monday afternoon.

 

 

 

[SWXII]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

No way, having Star Wars in Christmas is the perfect way for Disney to completely dominate the holidays. And honestly, I love the idea of SW becoming a Christmas staple.

 

The only time I see that happening is 2018, when Han Solo and Avatar 2 both come out. If Rogue One had crushed expectations, I think Disney would have the balls to have HS go in December, but w/RO performing more down to Earth (still crazy business though), I don't think they'll be confident enough for that.

 

True. And I doubt they want to start a box office war with Cameron. That would be a lose lose for both. I am just frustrated that the vortex is killing my estimates.

[IronJimbo]

57 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

People clapped at the end of this...

 

Also at end of SW7

"people"

 

you mean americans

 

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I'm gone for a day and I got 80 pages to read from this thread?! Jesus H Christ guys! There had better be some entertaining meltdowns somewhere in there.

 

at least 2 Avatar fans (or fanatics) arrived and the thread derailed. And a: 'Rey in SW 7 is not believable / problematic...' guy. The reasoning given seem to me not well thought, but as usual, probably a POV (beside to compare with developments of a character after the 1st film seems to be pointless)

I love Avatar, there were also normal Avatar fans also here, but they behaved normal.

 

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

C'mon, 150+M is strong but it isn't an event. Give real event movies some credit. Now, if R1 had insane legs a la Avatar and reached insane numbers despite non-event opening, than it would become an event. But opening is very strong/excellent. 

 

Maybe event of the year? I am sure I have heard that before, like sports event of the year, or?

Personally I do not care (and still havent had a chance to see it, cant wait for Wednesday)

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Yes it is an event. All Star Wars movies are event movies. So are many other blockbusters. People need to stop confusing event movie with cultural phenomenons. There's a HUGE difference. 

 

I can accept this definition. 

 

I'm not trying to undermine R1 success but just clarifying that it isn't up there with those 3 cultural phenomena. But yes, we can call it an event now that we determined those 3 were something else. And Avatar and Titanic with their cultural phenomena legs. 

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

"people"

 

you mean americans

 

 

 

Canadians

 

Yeah we are weird we really like Star Wars.

 

Bite me lol 

[IronJimbo]

Looks like we got a ~152OW here ladies and gents, just for perspective I predicted an 150m OW and a 400m, because no leg.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Because all the blockbusters this year have been not really good...

 

Batman vs Superman, SS even Finding Dory was lame.

 

 

I am not saying RO is TDK or anything but I think its a above average blockbuster film especially for this year 

 

 

Dory was fantastic. You dont have any interaction with kids with disabilities. Except the dreamworldish climax with octopus riding the truck it was brilliant. New characters were top notch. Zootopia and JB were other blockbusters with rock solid story lines.

 

Civil War is much better than Rogue One in my opinion. That being said R1 had the best finish of all the blockbusters. That still does not make up for boring 1st 2 acts.

[Jessie]

32 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/rogue_one_a_star_wars_story/#audience_reviews

 

90% so far seems pretty lackluster, you're right...

 

Oh yeah, RT means everything, we will see who's right in the next coming weeks, most likely be me, as per usual ?

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Canadians

 

Yeah we are weird we really like Star Wars.

 

Bite me lol 

Just joking!

 

R1 is going to job harder than Vegeta in the next couple weeks.

[JonathanLB]

Titanic's legendary box office run isn't something I ever expect to see again. I followed it old school too - newspapers on Monday. Every weekend: "WHAT?! No, movies don't go UP each week what's wrong with this thing?! Seriously?" Another week, "Ok it fell 7%. Great. At this rate it'll still be playing when we have flying cars." That movie's box office run I suspect may be something we just won't ever see again. Crazy crazy movie and all I heard about all winter 1997 / 1998.

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

 

Dory was fantastic. You dont have any interaction with kids with disabilities. Except the dreamworldish climax with octopus riding the truck it was brilliant. New characters were top notch. Zootopia and JB were other blockbusters with rock solid story lines.

 

Civil War is much better than Rogue One in my opinion. That being said R1 had the best finish of all the blockbusters. That still does not make up for boring 1st 2 acts.

 

and it will out gross all those films with ease apart from Dory. 

 

 

 

[Jessie]

26 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Sorry you didn't like it, but the facts contradict your personal opinion about its WOM. As Empire noted. The movie has excellent word of mouth. Any movie will always have people who didn't enjoy it, no matter what movie it is. Manchester By the Sea has 97% universal acclaim from critics and I hate it lol  Our personal opinions don't automatically mean everyone agrees - sadly! Ha ha

 

Well sure but when every person I know who has seen the film doesn't think too much of it I think I'll take actual people's opinions as apposed to fanboy on a website that praises the shit out of all their franchise favourites

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Jessie said:

 

Oh yeah, RT means everything, we will see who's right in the next coming weeks, most likely be me, as per usual ?

 

I call it the eye test, it helps see the actual audience rating before being inflated by star wars fans on the internet.

Edited December 18, 2016 by IronJimbo

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, Jessie said:

 

Oh yeah, RT means everything, we will see who's right in the next coming weeks, most likely be me, as per usual ?

 

There is nothing interest releasing now for a major blockbuster and its X-mas and if it was really frontloaded geeky fans who like this, it would have already start to show on the opening weekend.