WrathOfHan Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, That One Guy said: better chance than Michelle Pfeiffer in mother! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1. Dunkirk 2. Call Me by Your Name 3. The Post 4. Lady Bird 5. Get Out 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. The Shape of Water 8. The Florida Project ------------------------------------- 9. Darkest Hour 10. Phantom Thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: Florida Project feels good to be the eight nom to me. I think we're only getting eight this year. Agreed. This year feels like another 2015 to me, where there's no obvious frontrunner. So yeah, the big eight (Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards) are our nominees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Dunkirk's momentum has diminish bit by bit...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, titanic2187 said: Dunkirk's momentum has diminish bit by bit...... For the win? Sure. But it's still very much in the running for a Best Picture nomination and a Nolan directing nom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Quinn Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 On 12/2/2017 at 3:01 PM, CoolioD1 said: so A24 for basically everything? i'm gonna have a stroke jesus. those fucking guys. I for one welcome our new Slay-24 overlords. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 14 hours ago, The Shape of Pasta said: Darkest Hour is going to be another Danish Girl, methinks. A nod for Oldman and maybe a few creatives, but that’s it. The Danish Girl still won an acting Oscar though so we shouldn't be quick to write-off Oldman's chances of winning. All he needs are SAG (which is unlikely to award someone with as relatively little experience as Chalamet) and BAFTA (which is a given) and it's done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: new predix: Picture: 1. The Post 2. Call Me by Your Name 3. Lady Bird 4. Three Billboards 5. Dunkirk 6. The Shape of Water 7. Get Out 8. Phantom Thread 9. The Florida Project (gonna be weird having multiple nominees with only two nominations; that hasn't happened in at least 6 years) --------------------- 10. Darkest Hour Alt: Molly's Game Director: 1. Nolan 2. Spielberg 3. Guadagnino 4. Gerwig 5. del Toro Alt: McDonagh Actor (ranked by who I think wins): 1. James Franco 2. Timothee Chalamet 3. Daniel Day-Lewis 4. Gary Oldman 5. Tom Hanks Alt: who cares Actress: 1. Meryl Streep 2. Saoirse Ronan 3. Frances McDormand 4. Sally Hawkins 5. Margot Robbie Alt: Jessica Chastain Supporting Actor: 1. Sam Rockwell 2. Willem Dafoe 3. Armie Hammer 4. Bob Odenkirk 5. Michael Stuhlbarg Alt: Idris Elba Supporting Actress: 1. Allison Janney 2. Laurie Metcalf 3. Lesley Manville 4. Holly Hunter 5. Michelle Pfeiffer Alt: Julia Roberts Original Screenplay: 1. The Post 2. Lady Bird 3. Get Out 4. Three Billboards 5. Phantom Thread Alt: The Florida Project Adapted Screenplay: 1. Call Me by Your Name 2. The Disaster Artist 3. Molly's Game 4. Mudbound 5. Wonder Alt: Blade Runner 2049 Lowest Oscar TV ratings ever incoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, AndyK said: Lowest Oscar TV ratings ever incoming. There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Updated predicts Best Picture In 1. Lady Bird 2. Call Me By Your Name 3. Get Out Likely In 4. The Florida Project 5. Dunkirk 6. The Post Toss Up 7. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 8. The Shape of Water 9. Phantom Thread 10. The Disaster Artist 11. I, Tonya On the Fringes 12. The Big Sick 13. Mudbound 14. Good Time 15. Logan 16. Wonder Woman 17. Baby Driver 18. Downsizing Director Likely In 1. Jordan Peele, Get Out 2. Sean Baker, The Florida Project 3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Toss Up 4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name 5. Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water 6. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk On the Fringes 1. Steven Spielberg, The Post 2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri Best Actress In 1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Likely In 2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water 3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 4. Meryl Streep, The Post 5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya On the Fringes 1. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game 2. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes 3. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul Best Actor In 1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Likely In 2. James Franco, The Disaster Artist 3. Tom Hanks, The Post Toss Up 4. Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread 5. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out 6. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour 7. Robert Pattinson, Good Time 8. Henry Dean Stanton, Lucky On the Fringes 9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger 10. Jeremy Renner, Wind River 11. Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats Best Supporting Actress In 1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Likely In 2. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Toss Up 3. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip 4. Mary J Blige, Mudbound 5. Allison Janney, I, Tonya 6. Louis Smith, Marjorie Prime On the Fringes 7. Melissa Leo, Novitiate 8. Talliah Lenice Webster, Good Time Best Supporting Actor In 1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Likely In 2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards 3. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name Toss Up 4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk 5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water 6. Dustin Hoffmann, The Meyerowtiz Stories 7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound On the Fringes 8. Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name 9. Bennie Safdie, Good Time Adapted Screenplay In 1. The Disaster Artist 2. Call Me By Your Name Likely In 3. Molly’s Game Toss Up 4. Victoria and Abdul 5. Wonderstruck 6. Wonder Woman 7. Mudbound On the Fringes 8. Logan 9. Wonder 10. Blade Runner 2049 Original Screenplay In 1. Get Out 2. Phantom Thread Likely In 3. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri 4. Lady Bird Toss Up 5. The Post 6. The Shape of Water 7. The Florida Project 8. Dunkirk On the Fringes 9. The Big Sick 10. Beatriz At Dinner Cinematography Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Dunkirk 3. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 4. Call Me By Your Name 5. Mudbound 6. Three Billboards On the Fringes 7. Lady Bird 8. Darkest Hour 9. Wonderstruck 10. The Post Editing Likely In 1. Dunkirk Toss Up 2. I, Tonya 3. Three Billboards 4. Get Out 5. Call Me By Your Name 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour On the Fringes 8. War for the Planet of the Apes 9. Baby Driver 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 11. Blade Runner 2049 12. The Post 13. Good Time Animated Film In 1. Coco Toss Up 2. Loving Vincent 3. Birdboy 4. The Breadwinner 5. In This Corner of the World 6. The LEGO Batman Movie 7. Cars 3 On the Fringes 8. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 9. Ferdinand 10. The Boss Baby 11. Despicable Me 3 12. Captain Underpants 13. The Girl Without Hands Production Design Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Blade Runner 2049 3. Phantom Thread Toss Up 4. Dunkirk 5. Get Out 6. Downsizing 7. Beauty and the Beast On the Fringes 8. The Greatest Showman 9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 10. Darkest Hour 11. The Post Costume Design Likely In 1. Phantom Thread 2. Beauty and the Beast Toss Up 3. Victoria and Abdul 4. The Beguiled 5. Dunkirk 6. Murder on the Orient Express 7. The Shape of Water On the Fringes 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Wonder Woman Hair and Makeup Toss Up 1. I, Tonya 2. The Shape of Water 3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 4. IT 5. Darkest Hour 6. Beauty and the Beast 7. Wonder 8. Logan Score Likely In 1. The Shape of Water 2. Dunkirk Toss Up 3. Phantom Thread 4. The Post 5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 6. Wonder Woman 7. War for the Planet of the Apes 8. Wonderstruck On the Fringes 9. Darkest Hour 10. Blade Runner 2049 11. Coco 12. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri Original Song In 1. “Remember Me” from Coco Likely In 2. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name 3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria Toss Up 4. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall 5. “The Promise” from The Promise 6. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast 7. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman 8. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker 9. “It ain’t fair” from Detroit On the Fringes 10. “Never Forget” from Murder on the Orient Express 11. “Mighty River” from Mudbound 12. “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me By Your Name Sound Editing In 1. Dunkirk Likely In 2. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4. War for the Planet of the Apes 5. Logan 6. Darkest Hour On the Fringes 7. Baby Driver 8. Coco 9. Wonder Woman 10. The Shape of Water Sound Mixing In 1. Dunkirk Likely In 2. Blade Runner 2049 Toss Up 3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4. War for the Planet of the Apes 5. Baby Driver 6. Coco 7. Darkest Hour 8. Logan On the Fringes 9. Beauty and the Beast 10. The Greatest Showman 11. Wonder Woman VFX In 1. Blade Runner 2049 Likely In 2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 3. War for the Planet of the Apes Toss Up 4. Dunkirk 5. The Shape of Water 6. Wonder Woman 7. Alien: Covenant On the Fringes 8. Logan 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 10. Downsizing 11. Thor: Rangarok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1. Call Me by Your Name 2. The Post 3. Lady Bird 4. Get Out 5. The Florida Project 6. Dunkirk 7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 8. The Shape of Water 9. Phantom Thread 10. The Big Sick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) @The Last Pandaare you really predicting that Oldman will miss (lol he won't) in favor of...Daniel Kaluuya, when Get Out clearly isn't gonna be a top 5 contender (which is the only way he would get in)? Cause dude... Edited December 4, 2017 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gary Oldman's work in The Darkest Hour is not something that is going to miss, nor is it something that deserves to miss. The misconception that older Academy voters are choosing to throw their hands up in the air and cease to have an impact on a dilapidated category like Best Actor just because other institutions are mainly awarding two other actors (Chalamet and Franco) is laughable at best. Gary Oldman will be nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Also, Oldman's role is catnip for Oscar voters. All Darkest Hour needed to be was not awful for him to be the frontrunner, especially when his closest competition is apparently a college-aged dude. Doesn't really matter if the film ends up not getting much traction for other categories or is mostly ignored by audiences (although we'll know how it'll fare on those fronts soon enough - it's expanding to 50 theaters this upcoming weekend). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not. nominees this year are likely helped by the movie pass, seriously, to revitalize the low-mid budget drama, lower ticket price is essential, and make more movie be more accessible to public in the era of digital platform, these dramas don't really need hyper-class projector/audio, lower price is what they need for to attract audience 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not. I dont think it works that way, at least anymore. People wont watch a 4 hour show just to see Get Out winning best screenplay or even Nolan win best director. 2015 had Revenant as a contender to sweep and the whole Leo-meme thing and still droped 3 mil. in viewership from the year of Boyhood and Birdman which made less than half of Revenant combined. I think for the oscars to really move the needle in the ratings there either has to be a huge hit that winning or at least contending most of the awards (Gravity, Avatar but not American Sniper) or there has to be a year like 2012 where most of the BP line-up were mainstream 100m+ hits filled with famous people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, filmlover said: @The Last Pandaare you really predicting that Oldman will miss (lol he won't) in favor of...Daniel Kaluuya, when Get Out clearly isn't gonna be a top 5 contender (which is the only way he would get in)? Cause dude... I'm doing my predicts solely based off of a weighted points system which factors in precursors, plus a few extraneous factors (such as negative points for being Netflix, which isn't factored in yet). So as of right now, I have him out because Oldman hasn't shown up at all. Kaluuya and a few others have tied. My predicts will obviously change dramatically once we get guild precursors (as I plan to give a large amount of weight to those) Also, given that I have both of them in the toss up category, I'm only giving a slight preference to Kaluuya. If one or the other starts showing up, they'll move up the list. Edited December 4, 2017 by The Last Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, Joel M said: I dont think it works that way, at least anymore. People wont watch a 4 hour show just to see Get Out winning best screenplay or even Nolan win best director. 2015 had Revenant as a contender to sweep and the whole Leo-meme thing and still droped 3 mil. in viewership from the year of Boyhood and Birdman which made less than half of Revenant combined. I think for the oscars to really move the needle in the ratings there either has to be a huge hit that winning or at least contending most of the awards (Gravity, Avatar but not American Sniper) or there has to be a year like 2012 where most of the BP line-up were mainstream 100m+ hits filled with famous people. Exactly, there is nothing in those lists to stir the loins. Most of them people will have never heard of. But who knows, the academy has been trying to diversify its members, which is lot more than these various critic associations have been doing, its just more of the same old stuff that none of the public are interested in. Hopefully the golden globes will be a bit more fearless and give Patty Jenkins an award, stir things up a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 (edited) 39 minutes ago, AndyK said: same old stuff that none of the public are interested in. Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration ? Get out, Dunkirk, The Post, etc... probably stuff the people that could ever consider watching the shows have heard of and are interested in. There is still a huge 11% of the US/Canada population that are frequent movie goers (12 time a year or more in theater) and the academy award were more watched than the game 7 of a Lebron James vs Curry/Durant playoff final and was still in the top 4 most watching event of the year: Rank Show Network Airdate Total viewers (millions) 1 Super Bowl 50 CBS Feb. 7 111.90 2 Super Bowl 50 postgame CBS Feb. 7 70.00 3 NFC Championship FOX Jan. 24 45.74 4 World Series Game 7 FOX Nov. 2 40.05 5 Academy Awards ABC Feb. 28 34.43 6 NFL Divisional Playoff NBC Jan. 16 33.73 7 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 9 33.44 8 NFL Wild-Card Game CBS Jan. 9 31.23 9 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 11 31.22 10 NBA Finals Game 7 ABC June 19 31.02 11 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 7 29.78 12 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 8 28.86 13 NBA Trophy Presentation ABC June 19 27.77 14 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 14 26.75 15 Sunday Night Football NBC Dec. 11 26.50 16 Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony NBC Aug. 5 26.49 17 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 12 26.45 18 College Football Playoff Championship ESPN Jan. 11 25.67 19 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 13 25.52 20 NFL season opener NBC Sept. 8 25.19 Less and less people have tv or tv watching habit, ratings by capita will go down 39 minutes ago, AndyK said: Hopefully the golden globes will be a bit more fearless and give Patty Jenkins an award, stir things up a bit. Not sure if caring about ratings and starting to consider what is popular in your choice match the definition of being fearless. Globes are trying to build back some legitimacy/credibility/prestige, going back to a stunt award like that would take them back no ? Edited December 4, 2017 by Barnack 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 4 hours ago, Barnack said: Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration ? Get out, Dunkirk, The Post, etc... probably stuff the people that could ever consider watching the shows have heard of and are interested in. There is still a huge 11% of the US/Canada population that are frequent movie goers (12 time a year or more in theater) and the academy award were more watched than the game 7 of a Lebron James vs Curry/Durant playoff final and was still in the top 4 most watching event of the year: Rank Show Network Airdate Total viewers (millions) 1 Super Bowl 50 CBS Feb. 7 111.90 2 Super Bowl 50 postgame CBS Feb. 7 70.00 3 NFC Championship FOX Jan. 24 45.74 4 World Series Game 7 FOX Nov. 2 40.05 5 Academy Awards ABC Feb. 28 34.43 6 NFL Divisional Playoff NBC Jan. 16 33.73 7 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 9 33.44 8 NFL Wild-Card Game CBS Jan. 9 31.23 9 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 11 31.22 10 NBA Finals Game 7 ABC June 19 31.02 11 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 7 29.78 12 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 8 28.86 13 NBA Trophy Presentation ABC June 19 27.77 14 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 14 26.75 15 Sunday Night Football NBC Dec. 11 26.50 16 Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony NBC Aug. 5 26.49 17 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 12 26.45 18 College Football Playoff Championship ESPN Jan. 11 25.67 19 Summer Olympics NBC Aug. 13 25.52 20 NFL season opener NBC Sept. 8 25.19 Less and less people have tv or tv watching habit, ratings by capita will go down Not sure if caring about ratings and starting to consider what is popular in your choice match the definition of being fearless. Globes are trying to build back some legitimacy/credibility/prestige, going back to a stunt award like that would take them back no ? If best director is associated with best picture then there is no point in having a best director award. But its not a best director award, its a best achievment in direction award and there is no director that has achieved more than Patty Jenkins in 2017. Shes just made Times shortlist for person of the year FFS, it appears everyone can acknowledge her achievments except the cretins in her own industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...