Best Picture predictions-2017!

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

better chance than Michelle Pfeiffer in mother!

[RichWS]

1. Dunkirk

2. Call Me by Your Name

3. The Post

4. Lady Bird

5. Get Out

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7. The Shape of Water

8. The Florida Project

-------------------------------------

9. Darkest Hour

10. Phantom Thread

 

 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Florida Project feels good to be the eight nom to me. I think we're only getting eight this year.

Agreed. This year feels like another 2015 to me, where there's no obvious frontrunner. So yeah, the big eight (Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards) are our nominees.

[titanic2187]

Dunkirk's momentum has diminish bit by bit...... 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Dunkirk's momentum has diminish bit by bit...... 

For the win? Sure. But it's still very much in the running for a Best Picture nomination and a Nolan directing nom.

[Eric Furiosa]

On 12/2/2017 at 3:01 PM, CoolioD1 said:

so A24 for basically everything? i'm gonna have a stroke jesus. those fucking guys.

I for one welcome our new Slay-24 overlords.

[filmlover]

14 hours ago, The Shape of Pasta said:

Darkest Hour is going to be another Danish Girl, methinks. A nod for Oldman and maybe a few creatives, but that’s it.

The Danish Girl still won an acting Oscar though so we shouldn't be quick to write-off Oldman's chances of winning. All he needs are SAG (which is unlikely to award someone with as relatively little experience as Chalamet) and BAFTA (which is a given) and it's done.

[AndyK]

13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

new predix:

 

Picture:

 

1. The Post

2. Call Me by Your Name

3. Lady Bird

4. Three Billboards

5. Dunkirk

6. The Shape of Water

7. Get Out

8. Phantom Thread

9. The Florida Project (gonna be weird having multiple nominees with only two nominations; that hasn't happened in at least 6 years)

---------------------

10. Darkest Hour

Alt: Molly's Game

 

Director:

 

1. Nolan

2. Spielberg

3. Guadagnino

4. Gerwig

5. del Toro

Alt: McDonagh

 

Actor (ranked by who I think wins):

 

1. James Franco

2. Timothee Chalamet

3. Daniel Day-Lewis 

4. Gary Oldman

5. Tom Hanks

Alt: who cares

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep

2. Saoirse Ronan

3. Frances McDormand

4. Sally Hawkins

5. Margot Robbie

Alt: Jessica Chastain

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell

2. Willem Dafoe

3. Armie Hammer

4. Bob Odenkirk

5. Michael Stuhlbarg

Alt: Idris Elba

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney

2. Laurie Metcalf

3. Lesley Manville

4. Holly Hunter

5. Michelle Pfeiffer

Alt: Julia Roberts

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Post

2. Lady Bird

3. Get Out

4. Three Billboards

5. Phantom Thread

Alt: The Florida Project

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Molly's Game

4. Mudbound

5. Wonder

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

 

Lowest Oscar TV ratings ever incoming.

[WrathOfHan]

23 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Lowest Oscar TV ratings ever incoming.

There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not.

[The Panda]

Updated predicts

 

Best Picture

In

1.       Lady Bird

2.       Call Me By Your Name

3.       Get Out

Likely In

4.       The Florida Project

5.       Dunkirk

6.       The Post

Toss Up

7.       Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

8.       The Shape of Water

9.       Phantom Thread

10.   The Disaster Artist

11.   I, Tonya

On the Fringes

12.   The Big Sick

13.   Mudbound

14.   Good Time

15.   Logan

16.   Wonder Woman

17.   Baby Driver

18.   Downsizing

 

Director

Likely In

1.       Jordan Peele, Get Out

2.       Sean Baker, The Florida Project

3.       Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Toss Up

4.       Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

5.       Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water

6.       Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

On the Fringes

1.       Steven Spielberg, The Post

2.       Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

Best Actress

In

1.       Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Likely In

2.       Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

3.       Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

4.       Meryl Streep, The Post

5.       Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

On the Fringes

1.       Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

2.       Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

3.       Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

 

Best Actor

In

1.       Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Likely In

2.       James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3.       Tom Hanks, The Post

Toss Up

4.       Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

5.       Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

6.       Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

7.       Robert Pattinson, Good Time

8.       Henry Dean Stanton, Lucky

On the Fringes

9.       Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

10.   Jeremy Renner, Wind River

11.   Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats

 

Best Supporting Actress

In

1.       Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Likely In

2.       Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

Toss Up

3.       Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

4.       Mary J Blige, Mudbound

5.       Allison Janney, I, Tonya

6.       Louis Smith, Marjorie Prime

On the Fringes

7.       Melissa Leo, Novitiate

8.       Talliah Lenice Webster, Good Time

 

Best Supporting Actor

In

1.       Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Likely In

2.       Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

3.       Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Toss Up

4.       Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

5.       Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

6.       Dustin Hoffmann, The Meyerowtiz Stories

7.       Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

On the Fringes

8.       Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name

9.       Bennie Safdie, Good Time

 

Adapted Screenplay

In

1.       The Disaster Artist

2.       Call Me By Your Name

Likely In

3.       Molly’s Game

Toss Up

4.       Victoria and Abdul

5.       Wonderstruck

6.       Wonder Woman

7.       Mudbound

On the Fringes

8.       Logan

9.       Wonder

10.   Blade Runner 2049

Original Screenplay

In

1.       Get Out

2.       Phantom Thread

Likely In

3.       Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

4.       Lady Bird

Toss Up

5.       The Post

6.       The Shape of Water

7.       The Florida Project

8.       Dunkirk

On the Fringes

9.       The Big Sick

10.   Beatriz At Dinner

 

Cinematography

Likely In

1.       The Shape of Water

2.       Dunkirk

3.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

4.       Call Me By Your Name

5.       Mudbound

6.       Three Billboards

On the Fringes

7.       Lady Bird

8.       Darkest Hour

9.       Wonderstruck

10.   The Post

Editing

Likely In

1.       Dunkirk

Toss Up

2.       I, Tonya

3.       Three Billboards

4.       Get Out

5.       Call Me By Your Name

6.       The Shape of Water

7.       Darkest Hour

On the Fringes

8.       War for the Planet of the Apes

9.       Baby Driver

10.   Star Wars: The Last Jedi

11.   Blade Runner 2049

12.   The Post

13.   Good Time

Animated Film

In

1.       Coco

Toss Up

2.       Loving Vincent

3.       Birdboy

4.       The Breadwinner

5.       In This Corner of the World

6.       The LEGO Batman Movie

7.       Cars 3

On the Fringes

8.       Mary and the Witch’s Flower

9.       Ferdinand

10.   The Boss Baby

11.   Despicable Me 3

12.   Captain Underpants

13.   The Girl Without Hands

Production Design

Likely In

1.       The Shape of Water

2.       Blade Runner 2049

3.       Phantom Thread

Toss Up

4.       Dunkirk

5.       Get Out

6.       Downsizing

7.       Beauty and the Beast

On the Fringes

8.       The Greatest Showman

9.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

10.   Darkest Hour

11.   The Post

 

Costume Design

Likely In

1.       Phantom Thread

2.       Beauty and the Beast

Toss Up

3.       Victoria and Abdul

4.       The Beguiled

5.       Dunkirk

6.       Murder on the Orient Express

7.       The Shape of Water

On the Fringes

8.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9.       Blade Runner 2049

10.   Wonder Woman

 

Hair and Makeup

Toss Up

1.       I, Tonya

2.       The Shape of Water

3.       Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

4.       IT

5.       Darkest Hour

6.       Beauty and the Beast

7.       Wonder

8.       Logan

 

Score

Likely In

1.       The Shape of Water

2.       Dunkirk

Toss Up

3.       Phantom Thread

4.       The Post

5.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

6.       Wonder Woman

7.       War for the Planet of the Apes

8.       Wonderstruck

On the Fringes

9.       Darkest Hour

10.   Blade Runner 2049

11.   Coco

12.   Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

 

Original Song

In

1.       “Remember Me” from Coco

Likely In

2.       “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name

3.       “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

Toss Up

4.       “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

5.       “The Promise” from The Promise

6.       “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

7.       “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

8.       “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

9.       “It ain’t fair” from Detroit

On the Fringes

10.   “Never Forget” from Murder on the Orient Express

11.   “Mighty River” from Mudbound

12.   “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me By Your Name

Sound Editing

In

1.       Dunkirk

Likely In

2.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4.       War for the Planet of the Apes

5.       Logan

6.       Darkest Hour

On the Fringes

7.       Baby Driver

8.       Coco

9.       Wonder Woman

10.   The Shape of Water

 

Sound Mixing

In

1.       Dunkirk

Likely In

2.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4.       War for the Planet of the Apes

5.       Baby Driver

6.       Coco

7.       Darkest Hour

8.       Logan

On the Fringes

9.       Beauty and the Beast

10.   The Greatest Showman

11.   Wonder Woman

VFX

In

1.       Blade Runner 2049

Likely In

2.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3.       War for the Planet of the Apes

Toss Up

4.       Dunkirk

5.       The Shape of Water

6.       Wonder Woman

7.       Alien: Covenant

On the Fringes

8.       Logan

9.       Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

10.   Downsizing

11.   Thor: Rangarok

[That One Girl]

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Post

3. Lady Bird

4. Get Out

5. The Florida Project

6. Dunkirk

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

8. The Shape of Water

9. Phantom Thread

10. The Big Sick

[filmlover]

@The Last Pandaare you really predicting that Oldman will miss (lol he won't) in favor of...Daniel Kaluuya, when Get Out clearly isn't gonna be a top 5 contender (which is the only way he would get in)? Cause dude...

Edited December 4, 2017 by filmlover

[SLAM!]

Gary Oldman's work in The Darkest Hour is not something that is going to miss, nor is it something that deserves to miss. The misconception that older Academy voters are choosing to throw their hands up in the air and cease to have an impact on a dilapidated category like Best Actor just because other institutions are mainly awarding two other actors (Chalamet and Franco) is laughable at best. Gary Oldman will be nominated.

[filmlover]

Also, Oldman's role is catnip for Oscar voters. All Darkest Hour needed to be was not awful for him to be the frontrunner, especially when his closest competition is apparently a college-aged dude. Doesn't really matter if the film ends up not getting much traction for other categories or is mostly ignored by audiences (although we'll know how it'll fare on those fronts soon enough - it's expanding to 50 theaters this upcoming weekend).

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not.

nominees this year are likely helped by the movie pass, seriously, to revitalize the low-mid budget drama, lower ticket price is essential, and make more movie be more accessible to public in the era of digital platform, these dramas don't really need hyper-class projector/audio, lower price is what they need for to attract audience

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

There will be two near-200M grossers and a probably 100M grosser nominated. Maybe not.

 

I dont think it works that way, at least anymore. People wont watch a 4 hour show just to see Get Out winning best screenplay or even Nolan win best director. 2015 had Revenant as a contender to sweep and the whole Leo-meme thing and still droped 3 mil. in viewership from the year of Boyhood and Birdman which made less than half of Revenant combined.

 

I think for the oscars to really move the needle in the ratings there either has to be a huge hit that winning or at least contending most of the awards (Gravity, Avatar but not American Sniper) or there has to be a year like 2012 where most of the BP line-up were mainstream 100m+ hits filled with famous people.

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

@The Last Pandaare you really predicting that Oldman will miss (lol he won't) in favor of...Daniel Kaluuya, when Get Out clearly isn't gonna be a top 5 contender (which is the only way he would get in)? Cause dude...

I'm doing my predicts solely based off of a weighted points system which factors in precursors, plus a few extraneous factors (such as negative points for being Netflix, which isn't factored in yet).

 

So as of right now, I have him out because Oldman hasn't shown up at all.  Kaluuya and a few others have tied.

 

My predicts will obviously change dramatically once we get guild precursors (as I plan to give a large amount of weight to those)

 

Also, given that I have both of them in the toss up category, I'm only giving a slight preference to Kaluuya.  If one or the other starts showing up, they'll move up the list.

Edited December 4, 2017 by The Last Panda

[AndyK]

30 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

I dont think it works that way, at least anymore. People wont watch a 4 hour show just to see Get Out winning best screenplay or even Nolan win best director. 2015 had Revenant as a contender to sweep and the whole Leo-meme thing and still droped 3 mil. in viewership from the year of Boyhood and Birdman which made less than half of Revenant combined.

 

I think for the oscars to really move the needle in the ratings there either has to be a huge hit that winning or at least contending most of the awards (Gravity, Avatar but not American Sniper) or there has to be a year like 2012 where most of the BP line-up were mainstream 100m+ hits filled with famous people.

Exactly, there is nothing in those lists to stir the loins. Most of them people will have never heard of.

 

But who knows, the academy has been trying to diversify its members, which is lot more than these various critic associations have been doing, its just more of the same old stuff that none of the public are interested in.

 

Hopefully the golden globes will be a bit more fearless and give Patty Jenkins an award, stir things up a bit.

 

 

[Barnack]

39 minutes ago, AndyK said:

same old stuff that none of the public are interested in.

Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration ? Get out, Dunkirk, The Post, etc... probably stuff the people that could ever consider watching the shows have heard of and are interested in.

 

There is still a huge 11% of the US/Canada population that are frequent movie goers (12 time a year or more in theater) and the academy award were more watched than the game 7 of a Lebron James vs Curry/Durant playoff final and was still in the top 4 most watching event of the year:

 

Rank	Show	Network	Airdate	Total viewers (millions)
1	Super Bowl 50	CBS	Feb. 7	111.90
2	Super Bowl 50 postgame	CBS	Feb. 7	70.00
3	NFC Championship	FOX	Jan. 24	45.74
4	World Series Game 7	FOX	Nov. 2	40.05
5	Academy Awards	ABC	Feb. 28	34.43
6	NFL Divisional Playoff	NBC	Jan. 16	33.73
7	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 9	33.44
8	NFL Wild-Card Game	CBS	Jan. 9	31.23
9	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 11	31.22
10	NBA Finals Game 7	ABC	June 19	31.02
11	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 7	29.78
12	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 8	28.86
13	NBA Trophy Presentation	ABC	June 19	27.77
14	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 14	26.75
15	Sunday Night Football	NBC	Dec. 11	26.50
16	Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony	NBC	Aug. 5	26.49
17	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 12	26.45
18	College Football Playoff Championship	ESPN	Jan. 11	25.67
19	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 13	25.52
20	NFL season opener	NBC	Sept. 8	25.19

 

Less and less people have tv or tv watching habit, ratings by capita will go down

 

39 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Hopefully the golden globes will be a bit more fearless and give Patty Jenkins an award, stir things up a bit.

Not sure if caring about ratings and starting to consider what is popular in your choice match the definition of being fearless. Globes are trying to build back some legitimacy/credibility/prestige, going back to a stunt award like that would take them back no ?

 

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Barnack

[AndyK]

4 hours ago, Barnack said:

Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration ? Get out, Dunkirk, The Post, etc... probably stuff the people that could ever consider watching the shows have heard of and are interested in.

 

There is still a huge 11% of the US/Canada population that are frequent movie goers (12 time a year or more in theater) and the academy award were more watched than the game 7 of a Lebron James vs Curry/Durant playoff final and was still in the top 4 most watching event of the year:

 

Rank	Show	Network	Airdate	Total viewers (millions)
1	Super Bowl 50	CBS	Feb. 7	111.90
2	Super Bowl 50 postgame	CBS	Feb. 7	70.00
3	NFC Championship	FOX	Jan. 24	45.74
4	World Series Game 7	FOX	Nov. 2	40.05
5	Academy Awards	ABC	Feb. 28	34.43
6	NFL Divisional Playoff	NBC	Jan. 16	33.73
7	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 9	33.44
8	NFL Wild-Card Game	CBS	Jan. 9	31.23
9	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 11	31.22
10	NBA Finals Game 7	ABC	June 19	31.02
11	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 7	29.78
12	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 8	28.86
13	NBA Trophy Presentation	ABC	June 19	27.77
14	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 14	26.75
15	Sunday Night Football	NBC	Dec. 11	26.50
16	Summer Olympics Opening Ceremony	NBC	Aug. 5	26.49
17	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 12	26.45
18	College Football Playoff Championship	ESPN	Jan. 11	25.67
19	Summer Olympics	NBC	Aug. 13	25.52
20	NFL season opener	NBC	Sept. 8	25.19

 

Less and less people have tv or tv watching habit, ratings by capita will go down

 

Not sure if caring about ratings and starting to consider what is popular in your choice match the definition of being fearless. Globes are trying to build back some legitimacy/credibility/prestige, going back to a stunt award like that would take them back no ?

 

 

If best director is associated with best picture then there is no point in having a best director award.

 

But its not a best director award, its a best achievment in direction award and there is no director that has achieved more than Patty Jenkins in 2017.

 

Shes just made Times shortlist for person of the year FFS, it appears everyone can acknowledge her achievments except the cretins in her own industry.