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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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19 minutes ago, slambros said:

People are going to call the academy racist if Mudbound is completely shut out, because someone on the Netflix staff is bound to be angry enough to say something on Twitter

Did any of this happened with Beasts of no Nation ?

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I don't know who's dumber, Netflix for dumping its movies with no promotion and not following Amazon's strategy, or the Academy for getting so stuck in the past. ("In the opinion of one prominent Oscar member, Netflix could represent “a cheapening of the Oscar.” - oh get the fuck outta here.) Two wrong sides both putting their foot down, oof.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

I don't know who's dumber, Netflix for dumping its movies with no promotion and not following Amazon's strategy, or the Academy for getting so stuck in the past. ("In the opinion of one prominent Oscar member, Netflix could represent “a cheapening of the Oscar.” - oh get the fuck outta here.) Two wrong sides both putting their foot down, oof.

 

 

I feel like they're "so stuck in the past" because every other month we seem to get some sort of thinkpiece about how the movie theater is dead and people are staying at home for entertainment. Thus they probably think "how dare this streaming service come along and try to further diminish the value of our hallowed territory!"

 

But yeah, Netflix's strategy is doing them no favors either. I think unless they adopt an approach similar to Amazon's, they're never going to break through.

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13 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Netflix for dumping its movies with no promotion and not following Amazon's strategy,

I am a bit ambivalent about that, I like in a way if Netflix was even more committed to is strategy (If I am hearing about something that Netflix has I can watch it, no teaser about a future release, no theatrical windows, etc....), don't bother me with something if I cannot watch it and do not start to not make every episode available right away either.

 

That will cost them theater not wanting to play a movie that is available on Netflix, but I'm not sure that make it a dump business model/dump brand, not following the previous model made up/artificial complication on the audience is at the very base of Netflix business model and success.

 

And it is fully normal for theater chain (and thus the academy/major portion of the industry that know what happen to the product value when your hurt that windows, for everything including the post-theater window), I am not sure anyone involved here is particularly dump, the Academy Award is for promoting theatrical product in spirit and written in is rules.

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4 minutes ago, slambros said:

 

Idris Elba's miss certainly contributes to the Oscars so white fiasco, unfortunately.

I remember some of that (even too in is most pointed out Netflix being the factor, not race), I was talking about Netflix getting involved in the conversation part ? I do not remember them (even at the employee level) talking about it.

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

I remember some of that (even too in is most pointed out Netflix being the factor, not race), I was talking about Netflix getting involved in the conversation part ? I do not remember them (even at the employee level) talking about it.

 

I'm apprehensive on letting Netflix have too much of a stake in the industry. Movies feel like they are missing something (imo) if they don't get the big theatrical release they deserve.

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2 minutes ago, slambros said:

Movies feel like they are missing something (imo) if they don't get the big theatrical release they deserve.

They seem to do to many people (at least for people that go see movies in theater from time to time), nothing rational here, but not having the buzz and all the coverage of the theatrical release, having to wait for the movie to finally get release on dvd, etc.. do kind remove to the experience, even if it watching the movie at home.

 

All the artificial way the industry give more value to a movie simply for being new vs an old one really work on me and most of it is removed by a Netflix only release, watching War Machine felt like watching a 2013 release you just heard of for the first time, not like a new movie.

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3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I don't see how MMFR was any easier to achieve. In fact I'm sure it wasn't.

I also thought as MMFR was one of the hardest project of recent time, thousand of people in the deserts, months in the deserts, making/bringing a small armada of vehicles, trying to develop a 3D camera that would both support the desert action movie condition and be small enough to enter by cars windows and failing at doing it, projects than went on for decades, 470 hours of footage to edits and so on, not seen Blade Runner yet but it would be really hard to make that look easy imo.

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I also thought as MMFR was one of the hardest project of recent time, thousand of people in the deserts, months in the deserts, making/bringing a small armada of vehicles, trying to develop a 3D camera that would both support the desert action movie condition and be small enough to enter by cars windows and failing at doing it, projects than went on for decades, 470 hours of footage to edits and so on, not seen Blade Runner yet but it would be really hard to make that look easy imo.

Yeah there's a reason they shot for six months and spent, what, two years in post-production.

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9 hours ago, Barnack said:

I also thought as MMFR was one of the hardest project of recent time, thousand of people in the deserts, months in the deserts, making/bringing a small armada of vehicles, trying to develop a 3D camera that would both support the desert action movie condition and be small enough to enter by cars windows and failing at doing it, projects than went on for decades, 470 hours of footage to edits and so on, not seen Blade Runner yet but it would be really hard to make that look easy imo.

Visually people , visually 

there aren't many people in BR2049 but the visuals , productions design and cinematography are otherworldly 

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I think it's safe to say Netflix botched Mudbound and it's bound to get shut out now.

 

BP

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. Call Me By Your Name

4. The Post

 

5. Get Out

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri

 

7. The Florida Project

8. Lady Bird

 

9. The Big Sick

10. Blade Runner 2049

11. Darkest Hour

 

12. Molly's Game

13. The Disaster Artist

 

14. Logan

15. Wonder Woman

16. Stronger

17. Hostiles

18. Killing of the Sacred Deer

19. War for the Planet of the Apes

20. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Edited by The Pumpkin Spice Panda
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1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. The Post

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Darkest Hour (these 6 might as well be locked providing The Post doesn't suck)

 

7. Blade Runner 2049

8. The Big Sick

9. Get Out

 

10. Molly's Game

11. The Disaster Artist

12. Lady Bird

13. The Florida Project

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I honestly think that the difference in Three Billboards, Dunkirk, Shape of Water, and the Post if it is about as good as expectations is pretty much negligible - and I wouldn't be stunned at all if Call Me By Your Name or Darkest Hour make (different) runs for the top prize, too. This is a year of shocking parity in the BP race, provided that Post/Phantom Thread aren't hugely better than expectations.

 

I agree with Han's list completely but I would put one of Florida Project or Lady Bird in there over one of the BR/Big Sick/Get Out combo.

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