Best Picture predictions-2017!

[Jake Gittes]

Aaaaaaaaand there y'all just went throwing the L-word around like no tomorrow.

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Aaaaaaaaand there y'all just went throwing the L-word around like no tomorrow.

@CoolioD1 should this word have (sorry I don't know how to use this word) like pretentious? 

[Joel M]

On 17/9/2017 at 8:54 PM, WrathOfHan said:

TIFF audience award history in the past 5 years:

 

2016: La La Land

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years a Slave

2012: Silver Linings Playbook

2011: Foreign movie from Lebanon

2010: King's Speech

2009: Precious

2008: Slumdog Millionaire

 

8 out of the last 9 TIFF audience award winners ended up top-5 oscar contenders and all of them won at least one big award. And the only one that didn't, was a movie that was never gonna be on the academy radar outside of best foreign film.

 

So I think Billboards is more likely than not to be nominated for every big award it can and at least win something big like acting or a screenplay. It probably is top-5, not 6th or 7th.

[Eric the IF]

5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Aaaaaaaaand there y'all just went throwing the L-word around like no tomorrow.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I loved it, but KILLING OF A SACRED DEER is far too weird and inaccessible to go very far. Could see a tech nod, though.

 

A24's best bet does definitely seem like LADY BIRD, but it doesn't look like the runaway smash that ROOM or MOONLIGHT were. Still wouldn't be surprised to see DISASTER ARTIST make a play.

[Valonqar]

On 9/17/2017 at 8:55 PM, filmlover said:

I, Tonya getting second spot is great too. FWIW my current Actress line-up is Hawkins/McDormand/Robbie/Streep/Winslet with Chastain and Ronan as potential spoilers.

Robbie would fill in the "first nom" ingenue spot considering that everyone else is returning. As much as I want Streep upset, that's not happening so it's a battle for 4 spots. Hawkins/McDormand look solid cause they are receiving "potential winner" buzz. We'll see whom critics will push to a nom. They almost universally backed up Hupert last year, despite creaming all over Portman during TIFF, so Hupert made the cut despite bombing with important precursors, while Adams who hit the big 3 (GG, SAG, BAFTA) was snubbed.  

 

Best Actor is over. Oldman has been the biggest lock for the win since DDL in Lincoln plus he has a due narrative. 

[Jake Gittes]

38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Robbie would fill in the "first nom" ingenue spot considering that everyone else is returning. As much as I want Streep upset, that's not happening so it's a battle for 4 spots. Hawkins/McDormand look solid cause they are receiving "potential winner" buzz. We'll see whom critics will push to a nom. They almost universally backed up Hupert last year, despite creaming all over Portman during TIFF, so Hupert made the cut despite bombing with important precursors, while Adams who hit the big 3 (GG, SAG, BAFTA) was snubbed.  

 

Best Actor is over. Oldman has been the biggest lock for the win since DDL in Lincoln plus he has a due narrative. 

 

Huppert won the Golden Globe and the only reason she didn't make BAFTA was because the movie wasn't released in the UK until March. It was Negga who took Adams' spot.

[WrathOfHan]

(aping this from filmlover in the Supporting Actor thread) Amazon might be putting all three Last Flag Flying guys in supporting. That's going to be a REALLY risky move and might screw all of them from a nomination if there's no clear MVP in the cast. What I'd predict under this scenario:

 

Actor:

 

1. Oldman

2. Chalamet

3. Franco

4. Renner

5. Hanks

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Rockwell

2. Dafoe

3. Stuhlbarg

4. Shannon

5. Carell 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

(aping this from filmlover in the Supporting Actor thread) Amazon might be putting all three Last Flag Flying guys in supporting. That's going to be a REALLY risky move and might screw all of them from a nomination if there's no clear MVP in the cast. What I'd predict under this scenario:

 

Actor:

 

1. Oldman

2. Chalamet

3. Franco

4. Renner

5. Hanks

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Rockwell

2. Dafoe

3. Stuhlbarg

4. Shannon

5. Carell 

Sorta. The final two spots of Supporting Actor are still a mess with Shannon (who is no sure thing, his nomination last year could've been a make-up nom for barely missing the year before), Jenkins, Hammer, Mendelsohn, and the Last Flag Flying guys all duking it out for a spot. It'll be interesting to see how the critics awards shape the season.

[Valonqar]

Blade Runner and Villenueve crashing the Picture/Director party? Possible Actor/Supporting Actor surprise noms? 

Edited September 26, 2017 by Valonqar

[SLAM!]

So I had a thought about the distributor Universal.

 

I'll get the weaker films out of the way.

Girls Trip only has a chance for a Golden Globe Nomination.

Thank You For Your Service will likely fail to become a sensation like American Sniper did (poor Miles Teller).

And genre thrillers rarely get Academy notices, so The Snowman is not likely to kickstart a Silence of the Lambs scenario. 

 

So that leaves the acclaimed Get Out and- what's this?- American Made, starring Tom Cruise, which has received a high enough Rotten Tomatoes score to be seen as viable.

 

Best Actor is weak this year, and Universal is probably going to try to position Tom Cruise as a viable option for a category still scratching its chin in regards to who they should nominate past shoe-ins like Gary Oldman.

 

Then comes the 'distributor' thing.

 

Last year, there were four viable films from Paramount; Arrival, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, and Silence. Two of them were pretty successful in regards to wins and nominations, while the other two sputtered out.

 

When a distributor has multiple great choices for campaigning, sometimes there can be certain films that, while deserving, become casualties.

 

So my question, in light of the positive reviews American Made has receives, is this: how is American Made going to effect Get Out in the long run?

 

(I'm probably overreacting, to be completely honest, but feel free to berate this talking point.)

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, slambros said:

So my question, in light of the positive reviews American Made has receives, is this: how is American Made going to effect Get Out in the long run?

 

I do not think American Made will be a player (you cannot even bet on it on award odds maker), Darkest Hour, PTA movie maybe even Victoria and Adbul, sound more Universal movie will push with Get Out before American Made.

 

9 minutes ago, slambros said:

which has received a high enough Rotten Tomatoes score to be seen as viable.

I think average rating/metascore is much more important when looking in Best picture candidate than RT. And American Made is at 68 (with only 14 critics), with no 100 perfect score, not really a strong contender.

[SLAM!]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I do not think American Made will be a player (you cannot even bet on it on award odds maker), Darkest Hour, PTA movie maybe even Victoria and Adbul, sound more Universal movie will push with Get Out before American Made.

 

Darkest Hour

PTA Movie

Victoria & Abdul

 

Honest question: does Universal own Focus Features? I didn't know that but that's actually pretty cool if they do.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, slambros said:

Honest question: does Universal own Focus Features? I didn't know that but that's actually pretty cool if they do.

Yes, an easy trick to look at a studio complete slate (including is sub division) is box office mojo

 

For example if you want to see all NBC/Universal future release:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?view2=upcoming&view=parent&studio=universal.htm&debug=0&p=.htm

 

vs just Universal brand:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?view2=upcoming&view=company&studio=universal.htm&debug=0&p=.htm

 

For company with many brand like Sony (Columbia, Sony Classic, TriStar, Screen Gems) it can be useful.

[filmlover]

Get Out will be Universal's only Oscar push this year. Now they need to hope that it's able to get the support necessary at the end of the year.

[WrathOfHan]

Cruise isn't coming anywhere close to the Oscars; a Globe nomination is his best bet.

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Yes, an easy trick to look at a studio complete slate (including is sub division) is box office mojo

 

For example if you want to see all NBC/Universal future release:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?view2=upcoming&view=parent&studio=universal.htm&debug=0&p=.htm

 

vs just Universal brand:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?view2=upcoming&view=company&studio=universal.htm&debug=0&p=.htm

 

For company with many brand like Sony (Columbia, Sony Classic, TriStar, Screen Gems) it can be useful.

 

Thank you for this!

 

59 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Cruise isn't coming anywhere close to the Oscars; a Globe nomination is his best bet.

 

You're probably right.

 

Maybe it's for the best that Cruise misses. I wouldn't be able to bring myself to root for him anyways.

[filmlover]

Reviews/reactions for Last Flag Flying are coming in and while they aren't bad (most of the reviews so far are solid), it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of passion for the movie. Unless the trades turn out to be glowing, maybe a lone acting nom is its best chance. I'm now confident The Big Sick (which could definitely become one of those movies that gets revived at the end of the year) will be Amazon's #1 (or at least #2, depending on how the reviews for Wonder Wheel turn out when it's seen) push this year.

Edited September 28, 2017 by filmlover

[BirdMan]

you guys really think Get out is happening ??? I know political correctness runs deep but come on 

[WrathOfHan]

Last Flag Flying is dead. Adapted Screenplay might still happen because of how fucking weak the category is, but that's probably it.