THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, MrPink said:

When I go to see F8 tonight, I'm guessing RTH will stop by for some estimates. This is the report I expect, word for word

 

"I've got good news and bad news"

 

You know I like my dessert first

 

"F8 is gonna be the 2nd highest opening of the franchise"

 

Now gimme the damn veggies

 

"It might not make 100m OW" 

 

I think he is gonna be like "40-43 for now" followed by "41-42"

[#ED]

The trailers don't look bad, I may see this tomorrow.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

I think he is gonna be like "40-43 for now" followed by "41-42"

Or like TLBM, where DHD has something big like $50M-$55M, only for RTH to say $45M-$47M, then says $42M to end the night.

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Lestranger said:

 

Profit, yes. Plenty? 

 

For costs, we have a 250 prod budget plus a massive p&a. F7 p&a was 172 million. I will assume F8 has at least or more. F7 had a prod budget to total cost ration of 38% so we can expect F8 to something similar. Total costs at gonna be around 657 million, but probably more towards 700 million. 

 

Lot of the cost in the total cost are relative and proportional to the movie success, in large part participation bonus and residuals, in a much smaller way the size of the marketing (bigger the movie, bigger the home release, longer the theatrical run and it's cost, etc...)

 

Quote

 

Typical total revenue to box office is about 83% but for bigger films it is lower around 77%.

 

 

That would be nice to share how you achieved that measure, I imagine it is for recent release (in the past total revenue was usually much bigger than the box office for average movie and around the same for giant one), did you use deadline estimate of the last 2/3 year's ?

 

I imagine that having a big China box office would put the fast and furious on the lower end of the usual bracket.

 

Couple of known example of the past (the ratio move a lot with most of the studio revenue made post theater, how well you perform on home video change a lot and make hard to use a rules of thumb) and obviously it is very dependent of the market the box office come from:

 

Spider-Man 3:

WWBo: $890.9 million

Revenue: $1122.4 million, $964.82 million without  merchandising

Ratio: 126%

 

2012:

WWBo: $769.7 million

Revenue: $677.68 million

Ratio: 88%

 

The Da Vinci Code

WWBo: $758.2 million

Revenue: 833.63 million

Ratio: 110%

 

Amazing Spider-Man

WWBo: 758.2

Total revenue: 703.86 million, 677.5 million without the Disney payment made to Sony for every Spider Man movie they were doing at that time.

Ratio: 92.8%

 

Hancock

WWBo: 624 million

Total revenue: 660.6 million

Ratio: 105%

 

Smurf

WWBo: 563.7 million

Total revenue: 500.76 million

Ratio: 89%

[Jonwo]

Just came back from watching it and it's a solid film but it's not as good as Fast 7. 

 

Johnson, Tyrese and Statham were great as usual. Wasn't as keen on Theron as the villain. 

 

I do wonder what they have planned for 9 and 10, they need to step up in the villain department, maybe get Stallone or Neeson as the big bad 

[PDC1987]

Someone is seriously trying to claim that Universal spent $700 million on this film?

[franfar]

Just now, PDC1987 said:

Someone is seriously trying to claim that Universal spent $700 million on this film?

 

It's alternative budgeting

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Dragon said:

 

I was gonna say it should finish with 9 but you are right with 10th hitting film 20th anniversary. It will be one hell of promo. 10 should be the last

Then a reboot

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Then a reboot

 

I'm thinking prequels.  

 

Opening scene - Dom on a tricycle trying to take a fast corner. 

 

Resultant head on collision with a kid on Bigwheels leads to skin graft on his skull and his trademark baldness.

Edited April 14, 2017 by TalismanRing

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I'm thinking prequels.  

 

Opening scene - Dom on a tricycle trying to take a fast corner. 

 

Resultant head on collision with a kid on Bigwheels leads to skin graft on his skull and his trademark baldness.

Fast Tykes. Rated PG-13

[robertman2]

Sitting in the theater for F8. WOOHOO

[Barnack]

33 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

Someone is seriously trying to claim that Universal spent $700 million on this film?

 

Total cost is not exactly the same as spent on a film, most of a movie total cost is not on the film itself (the average budget is about 35% of the movie total cost)

 

700 million would include Diesel, Johnson and others bonuses, residuals, interest, amortization of running a movie studio distributed among all the movies they are making (overhead) and so on.

 

Spider Man 3 total cost 10 year's ago was of 934 million for an extreme example.

 

With that cost break down:

 

World theatrical marketing: 157.442 million

Others theatrical releasing cost (prints, freight, etc...): 85.771 million

 

World home entertain marketing: 69.92 million

World home entertain MFG: 79.982 million

 

Direct net production cost: 299.763 million

Overhead: 41.96 million

Participations bonus: 154.6 million ! (Raimi and co made a fortune on that trilogy)

Residual: 35.3 million

Some others (tv release, consumer product cost & marketing, etc...): 9.45 million

 

It made 1122 million in total revenue, 188 million in profit for the studio. The movie production budget ended up being only 32% of is total cost.

 

Spider-Man 3 was released around the time Hollywood peaked in profitability, now they are probably cutting expense a lot (or at least trying too) and don't spend as much specially not on the home video release or manufacturing with digital saving them money, but 700 million for a giant movie sequel would not be necessarily be a out of question amount, that would still make it 234 million cheaper (275 million adjusted in today dollar) than Spider-Man 3 after all.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2017 by Barnack

[TalismanRing]

Quote

 

3rd update, Friday 12:26PM: Midday figures. Right now, we’re seeing an estimated $45.5M Friday, 23% of that generated last night. That’s the same percentage that Thursday repped for Furious 7 two years ago. This puts Universal’s The Fate of the Furious at $100M. Too early to tell if it teeters up or down. Right now, Fate of the Furious’ three-day would rank as the second best domestic debut in the series behind Furious 7 ($147.1M). Fast & Furious 6 is right behind at $97.3M. Don’t forget the fanbase for this movie comes out at night, and Furious titles always plays stronger on the west coast.

 

Despite being Good Friday today, people don’t skip the movies. Currently, there’s 74% of all K-12 schools off today with a third of all colleges too.

 

Family fare will slot ranks 2 through 4 at the weekend B.O. with 20th Century Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s The Boss Baby earning $16M-$17M, -37% in its third weekend raising to $118M. Disney’s Beauty and the Beast in its fifth session is looking at $16.25M, -32%, for a running cume by EOD Sunday of $457M. Sony’s Smurfs: The Lost Village is currently forecasted at $11M, down only 15% (very good hold) for a 10-day take of $29M.

 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/04/the-fate-of-the-furious-weekend-box-office-opening-vin-diesel-dwayne-johnson-1202069983/

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

http://deadline.com/2017/04/the-fate-of-the-furious-weekend-box-office-opening-vin-diesel-dwayne-johnson-1202069983/

 

Expected number is expected.  

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

http://deadline.com/2017/04/the-fate-of-the-furious-weekend-box-office-opening-vin-diesel-dwayne-johnson-1202069983/

 

45.5 would set F8 for 100-105 ow.

 

I think their weekend projections for BB, BATB and Smurfs are a bit too high and they may not be taking into account that those movies will show about a 10% drop on Sat like Zootopia did.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, a2knet said:

 

45.5 would set F8 for 100-105 ow.

 

I think their weekend projections for BB, BATB and Smurfs are a bit too high and they may not be taking into account that those movies will show about a 10% drop on Sat like Zootopia did.

 

They don't give the Friday jump so it's hard to tell - but yes most child/family skewing films have  a 2.5 sub w/e multiplier.

[WrathOfHan]

Fuck, it feels weird having not seen a movie before most people on here after doing so with most of the releases this year  

[a2k]

F7 was -10% on Sat (from true Fri) and -29% on Sun

10.4 + 35.1 + 31.5 (-10%) + 22 (-28.5%) = 99

100 still not locked though could be close enough for estimates to be at 100.

 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

"The Jedi must ....end"

So..just robots and aliens then?

 

 

 

And smugglers, bounty hunters, rebels, the empire, sith, etc.

[marveldcfox]

Told you all that the hype was missing for this one...it was never going to do anything close to previous one.