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2018: Superhero Underperformance/Peak? Or Complete Domination?

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The superhero genre has been rather big recently. The Avengers is in the top 5 domestic and worldwide. Last year, 4 out of 6 CBMS did over $300M domestic, the year some people thought superhero fatigue could happen, 5 out of 6 did $200M+ domestic, and 6 out of 6 did over $150M+ domestic. This year, 7 CBMs are released, TLBM did an decent $175M domestic and Logan surprised and did $230M+ domestic. GV2 is tracking at enormous numbers ($150M+ OW), and WW, SMH, Thor, and JL, will likely all gross between $250M-$400M domestic. However next year 9 CBMs will be released, and if you count Incredibles 2 as a superhero movie and if DC gets to make another film like it wanted, the total is 11. Should we expect domination or fatigue? By fatigue I don't mean collapse but rather a soft year. Or some films like Animated Spider-Man or Venom or Dark Phoenix underperforming.

Edited by YourMother
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Just now, Gokai Red said:

People have been talking about superhero fatigue for a decade now, literally since SM3/IM1/TDK days. The numbers clearly show that there is no sign of fatigue. I don't know why this gets brought up so often. 

 

-Black Panther

-New Mutants

-Infinity War

-Deadpool 2

-Incredibles 2

-Ant-Man 2

-Untitled DC Film

-Venom

-Dark Phoenix

-Animated Spider-Man

-Aquaman

 

I'm sorry but that's 11 major superhero films in the span of 12 months.

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There will be 7 Marvel movies (3 Disney, 3 FOX, 1 Sony), a Marvel tsunami against... the Aquaman. Like I said, it could have been a true Peak Superhero if DC didn't screw up The Flash or even got a Suicide Squad 2 fast-tracked.

 

As for superhero fatigue: people have been talking about it for years now but until proven otherwise, the box office numbers tell a different story.

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Just now, MrGlass2 said:

There will be 7 Marvel movies (3 Disney, 3 FOX, 1 Sony), a Marvel tsunami against... the Aquaman. Like I said, it could have been a true Peak Superhero if DC didn't screw up The Flash or even got a Suicide Squad 2 fast-tracked.

 

As for superhero fatigue: people have been talking about it for years now but until proven otherwise, the box office numbers tell a different story.

8 if you count Animated Spider-Man.

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Just now, That One Guy said:

I think I read from a 4chan leak (unreliable but they have been accurate before) that they're gonna fast track Suicide Squad 2 or Dark Universe for 2018 to fill the void with The Batman moving back to 2019.  So who knows maybe that'll happen.

I could also see them fast tracking Shazam too.

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1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

I think I read from a 4chan leak (unreliable but they have been accurate before) that they're gonna fast track Suicide Squad 2 or Dark Universe for 2018 to fill the void with The Batman moving back to 2019.  So who knows maybe that'll happen.

The Suicide Squad claim has been said by one of the big outlets too. I think it could happen.

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There will never be super hero fatigue. They will be popular forever and continue to suck (for the most part), make billions, ignored by the academy, finish number one on our annual countdown of the best movies of the year and somehow Robert Downey Jr will still get a % of the gross on every MCU movie even after he's dead.

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My predictions for Superhero movies next year Domestic.

1 out of 10 (for now) over $500M

Infinity War

2 out of 10 over $400M

Infinity War, Incredibles 2 

5 out of 10 over $300M 

Infinity War, Incredibles 2, Dead2ool, Black Panther, Aquaman

out of 10 over $200M

Infinity War, Incredibles 2, Dead2ool, Black Panther, Aquaman, Ant Man 2, Spider-Man, New Mutants

10 out of 10 over $150M

Infinity War, Incredibles 2, Dead2ool, Black Panther, Aquaman, Ant Man 2, Spider-Man, New Mutants, Dark Phoenix, Venom

Edited by YourMother
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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

There will never be super hero fatigue. They will be popular forever and continue to suck (for the most part), make billions, ignored by the academy, finish number one on our annual countdown of the best movies of the year and somehow Robert Downey Jr will still get a % of the gross on every MCU movie even after he's dead.

 

this

 

Personally I think the "collapse" isn't going to be so much financial as it is in a lack of spectacle and frankly suckage. You can only sustain well made films for so long and arguably we haven't seen a truly well made film from this genre in several years - well made does not = well received. No we haven't had tons of Batman and Robins either but as the resources, writers, etc get stretched it will worsen.

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2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

this

 

Personally I think the "collapse" isn't going to be so much financial as it is in a lack of spectacle and frankly suckage. You can only sustain well made films for so long and arguably we haven't seen a truly well made film from this genre in several years - well made does not = well received. No we haven't had tons of Batman and Robins either but as the resources, writers, etc get stretched it will worsen.

 

Then what defines as "well made" in your book? Wouldn't that be entirely subjective then?

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4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I think Marvel might be in trouble if they don't stop making the same movie over and over again because people will get tired of the formula.

I'd argue the same for the DCEU's poor reception, with critics and mixed reception for audiences.

Edited by YourMother
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The MCU should be fine though. Black Panther should be very big, this is the first major superhero movie with a minority lead. Infinity War and it's sequel has literally all the MCU characters, and Ant Man 2 will do solid numbers.  If Wonder Woman breakouts, so should Captain Marvel. However 2018 may be the peak year for all parties.

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I also think Aquaman has the best advantage out of all these cbms. 

 

It releases late December, and if January continues to be a dead month for movies in 2019, it could have amazing legs and probably most of January to make its money.

 

Provided of course, if it has good word of mouth. 

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