2018: Superhero Underperformance/Peak? Or Complete Domination?

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

 

I still think the western/Superthero analogy doesn't work like, at all.

 

You won't convince there isn't more variety between superheroes than between freaking cowboys.

 

 

I agree, I just wanted to know.

[Barnack]

Some hyperbole here, I imagine people are joking when they talk as if they could predict the future, we are terrible at doing so, past just 15 year's, why say superheroes movies will never go away, films as we know them could go away before 2300.

 

Back to the subject, there is 2 different type of peak regarding superheroes, their overall popularity/market share, their profitability.

 

Many thought 2008 (13.7% market share) would have been the superheroes peak, then 2014 did more (8 movie 13.86%), then 2016 was the best year for the genre even and did much more with an almost 17% of the domestic market share. When that real peak will happen, it could be far away, it is a bit modern mythologies, it invite itself to the world blockbuster genre and not be set in time/current politic and limit is audience.

 

Also a bit like 3d animation actor in mask must be much easier to dub worldwide in local language, making it even easier for the product to travel.

 

The profitability peak is different, what is saving the genre for the moment is that almost exclusively 2 brand controlling it DC/Marvel and few studio, with how much it cost as long as they are playing nice together it can continue to be very lucrative, the high cost limit the entry possibility of competition a bit like the 3d style animation Pixar genre.

 

But with so many entry, the overall cost of making them and even thought a bigger year total a smaller box office by movie should be expected, making it less profitable and more risky, the bad one should eventually start to fail, without needing to be fantastic four bad.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2017 by Barnack

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

I still think the western/Superhero analogy doesn't work like, at all.

 

You won't convince me there isn't more variety between superheroes than between freaking cowboys.

 

The moat is also extremely different, western many small studio were making them, they were not expensive, they were not always franchise, you had a peak of like 150 western movie a year.

 

Superheroes, as long as only the franchised one does big and cost a fortune to make, the competition should naturally stay low, with some Russian superheroes movie that do not reach worldwide audience and some Super/Kick-Ass/etc,,, small title that do not really make that much. The genre can not be flooded with b-movies like Western.

[The Futurist]

Who will be the Dreamworks Animation in this story ?

 

An over-crowded market place will ALWAYS have a big casualty.

 

Also, One tentpole out of three is a superhero movie now.

 

Fox going crazy is bad news for the MCU imo, way too many Marvel movies.

 

Edited April 22, 2017 by The Futurist

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Who will be the Dreamworks Animation in this story ?

 

An over-crowded market place will ALWAYS have a big casualty.

 

Also, One tentpole out of three is a superhero movie now.

 

Fox going crazy is a bad news for the MCU imo, way too many Marvel movies.

 

Either Fox or Sony will suffer.

[Ethan Hunt]

Looking at it I'm looking forward to Black Panther and New Mutants because of the directors involved. The rest are varying degrees of meh we'll see at this point

[Ethan Hunt]

oh wait Infinity War is coming next year? i'm already fully on the fuck that movie train. seriously

[SLAM!]

I think this is the first year where many superhero films will underperform as a result of overcrowding. But Fox and Sony will be the ones that will probably get the worst of it.

 

I feel like an average consumer, and I feel like I have a better chance of watching Avengers: Infinity War, Ant-Man & The Wasp, Black Panther, and probably Aquaman because of the rare underwater setting that it inevitably boasts.

 

And you know, I don't think I am alone in my opinion. I don't feel alone when I say that X-Men Apocalypse was mediocre enough to make me skeptical about the other X-Men films. I don't feel alone when I say that if Deadpool wasn't for me personally, then Deadpool 2 likely won't be for me personally. And I don't feel alone when I say that I have know idea how Sony is gonna pull off Venom as a beginning to some kind of weird Spider-Man universe shindig.

 

Maybe I don't sound like an average film consumer if I'm willing to share this in depth of a post, but I did want to share my thoughts at the very least.

 

28 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Also, One tentpole out of three is a superhero movie now.

 

If this is true then consider me a really sad individual, because I'll feel sad, because 2018 will have little by the way of variety.

 

[YM!]

Yeah, The XCU and Venom will suffer the most. The audiences have a concept of the MCU and DCEU is by now. And Animated Spider-Man will do $200M domestic due to being POC lead.

[UNDERDOG]

2 minutes ago, slambros said:

I think this is the first year where many superhero films will underperform as a result of overcrowding. But Fox and Sony will be the ones that will probably get the worst of it.

 

I feel like an average consumer, and I feel like I have a better chance of watching Avengers: Infinity War, Ant-Man & The Wasp, Black Panther, and probably Aquaman because of the rare underwater setting that it inevitably boasts.

 

And you know, I don't think I am alone in my opinion. I don't feel alone when I say that X-Men Apocalypse was mediocre enough to make me skeptical about the other X-Men films. I don't feel alone when I say that if Deadpool wasn't for me personally, then Deadpool 2 likely won't be for me personally. And I don't feel alone when I say that I have know idea how Sony is gonna pull off Venom as a beginning to some kind of weird Spider-Man universe shindig.

 

Maybe I don't sound like an average film consumer if I'm willing to share this in depth of a post, but I did want to share my thoughts at the very least.

 

 

If this is true then consider me a really sad individual, because I'll feel sad, because 2018 will have little by the way of variety.

 

 

 

Replace Ant-Man & The Wasp with Deadpool 2, and I sort of agree with you.

[SLAM!]

2 minutes ago, UNDERDOG said:

 

 

Replace Ant-Man & The Wasp with Deadpool 2, and I sort of agree with you.

 

And I'll add one more to my list: New Mutants. Apparently, there's a lot of confidence surrounding it, so I'll keep watch of it with an optimistic eye.

[UNDERDOG]

I also think that with the huge amount of cbms releasing next year, the amount that will cross 1 billion dollars will decrease more and more.

 

Hell, not just for cbms but for blockbusters in general.

 

 

[UNDERDOG]

Just now, slambros said:

 

And I'll add one more to my list: New Mutants. Apparently, there's a lot of confidence surrounding it, so I'll keep watch of it with an optimistic eye.

 

Oh yeah, New Mutants can easily capture an average consumer's eye.

 

A fun group of young mutants, with none of the heavy FOX baggage that is currently pressing on the regular cast of X-Men could be enticing to the general audience.

[WrathOfHan]

How I feel about each upcoming film:

 

GOTG: Positive reactions have me a bit more interested, but I'm still not "excited." I'm honestly looking forward to The Circle more right now  

Wonder Woman: Not looking forward to it. The trailers haven't been terrible, but they're also not good and DC's track record isn't pretty.

Spider-Man: This looks like trash and generic as hell. 

Thor: YAAAAAAAAAAAS! HAIL TAIKA @aabattery

Justice League: See WW.

Black Panther: Sure. I question how much freedom Coogler has with this, but it has an excellent cast.

New Mutants: Anya and likely McAvoy?  Otherwise, I'm not excited.

Infinity War: *shrug*

Deadpool: Very much looking forward to this. Deadpool was one of the few noteworthy blockbusters last year and I can't wait to see Wick-style action in a CBM.

Ant-Man: Most anticipated MCU film of 2018. The first is their second best, and I expect more breezy fun in this.

Venom: LOOOOOOOOOL

X-Men: Meh. Apocalypse was fine for what it was, but I'm not sure how well the new cast can carry this.

Aquaman: I have more hope for this than the other DC flicks, but Wan still has some improvement to do on big budget directing.

 

Incredibles 2 and Shyamalan's next film will shit all over 90% of these.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

How I feel about each upcoming film:

 

GOTG: Positive reactions have me a bit more interested, but I'm still not "excited." I'm honestly looking forward to The Circle more right now  

Wonder Woman: Not looking forward to it. The trailers haven't been terrible, but they're also not good and DC's track record isn't pretty.

Spider-Man: This looks like trash and generic as hell. 

Thor: YAAAAAAAAAAAS! HAIL TAIKA @aabattery

Justice League: See WW.

Black Panther: Sure. I question how much freedom Coogler has with this, but it has an excellent cast.

New Mutants: Anya and likely McAvoy?  Otherwise, I'm not excited.

Infinity War: *shrug*

Deadpool: Very much looking forward to this. Deadpool was one of the few noteworthy blockbusters last year and I can't wait to see Wick-style action in a CBM.

Ant-Man: Most anticipated MCU film of 2018. The first is their second best, and I expect more breezy fun in this.

Venom: LOOOOOOOOOL

X-Men: Meh. Apocalypse was fine for what it was, but I'm not sure how well the new cast can carry this.

Aquaman: I have more hope for this than the other DC flicks, but Wan still has some improvement to do on big budget directing.

 

Incredibles 2 and Shyamalan's next film will shit all over 90% of these.

You forgot Animated Spider-Man.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, YourMother said:

You forgot Animated Spider-Man.

What I said for Venom in lower case.

[WrathOfHan]

IF Mel Gibson directs SS2 and it's out next year, I'll be really excited for that trainwreck. 

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Thor: YAAAAAAAAAAAS! HAIL TAIKA @aabattery

 

 

[UNDERDOG]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How I feel about each upcoming film:

 

GOTG: Positive reactions have me a bit more interested, but I'm still not "excited." I'm honestly looking forward to The Circle more right now  

Wonder Woman: Not looking forward to it. The trailers haven't been terrible, but they're also not good and DC's track record isn't pretty.

Spider-Man: This looks like trash and generic as hell. 

Thor: YAAAAAAAAAAAS! HAIL TAIKA @aabattery

Justice League: See WW.

Black Panther: Sure. I question how much freedom Coogler has with this, but it has an excellent cast.

New Mutants: Anya and likely McAvoy?  Otherwise, I'm not excited.

Infinity War: *shrug*

Deadpool: Very much looking forward to this. Deadpool was one of the few noteworthy blockbusters last year and I can't wait to see Wick-style action in a CBM.

Ant-Man: Most anticipated MCU film of 2018. The first is their second best, and I expect more breezy fun in this.

Venom: LOOOOOOOOOL

X-Men: Meh. Apocalypse was fine for what it was, but I'm not sure how well the new cast can carry this.

Aquaman: I have more hope for this than the other DC flicks, but Wan still has some improvement to do on big budget directing.

 

Incredibles 2 and Shyamalan's next film will shit all over 90% of these.

 

 

I applaud you for having the guts to say Ant-Man & The Wasp is your most anticipated MCU film of 2018.

 

...thats it from my end, I guess.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

 

I still think the western/Superhero analogy doesn't work like, at all.

 

You won't convince me there isn't more variety between superheroes than between freaking cowboys.

 

 

 

Wut?

 

I'd say it's the opposite.

 

Most cowboy archetypes blend in with each other where as superheroes include African kings, Asgardians, patriots, industrialist, teenage nerds, divorced fathers/thieves, sorcerers, archer spies, scientists with split personalities, military women with cosmic powers, cybernetic raccoons and that's just a corner of MCU.