Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, Chaz said:

You're forgetting summer weekdays. I see it crossing $200m.

 

Captain Underpants is not going to have nearly the legs because of a few factors.  It should open well, but there is so much content coming out between 6/9 and 7/7 that it won't be able to keep theaters.  Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 have much bigger studios behind them and theaters will bail out in favor of taking those on. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Captain Underpants is not going to have nearly the legs because of a few factors.  It should open well, but there is so much content coming out between 6/9 and 7/7 that it won't be able to keep theaters.  Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 have much bigger studios behind them and theaters will bail out in favor of taking those on. 

 

Hmmm....would a sub 3x multi be a likely scenario for it?

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Captain Underpants is not going to have nearly the legs because of a few factors.  It should open well, but there is so much content coming out between 6/9 and 7/7 that it won't be able to keep theaters.  Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 have much bigger studios behind them and theaters will bail out in favor of taking those on. 

How much are you seeing?

[EmpireCity]

I continue to be amazed by studios and how they cut short their own movies and cram content into small windows when they could make some simple changes.  

 

For example, May is fairly light on movies as is later July and August.  For some reason they decided to shove 10 movies into a 3 week window in late June and all it will do is cannibalize and hurt everyone.  

[Nova]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

I continue to be amazed by studios and how they cut short their own movies and cram content into small windows when they could make some simple changes.  

 

For example, May is fairly light on movies as is later July and August.  For some reason they decided to shove 10 movies into a 3 week window in late June and all it will do is cannibalize and hurt everyone.  

This is exactly how I feel lol Like why do that and not spread out the release dates? The end of May and then all of June of 2018 reminds me of this. Movies that should do very well will end be doing way less than they should because of this stupidity. 

[baumer]

Im hoping for an 18 mill friday for Gotg2

 

@EmpireCity.....can u shed some light?

[YM!]

Just now, baumer said:

Im hoping for an 18 mill friday for Gotg2

 

@EmpireCity.....can u shed some light?

He said $16.4M.

[Krissykins]

Yeh August looks dreadful, I think the single hit will be Annabelle Creation. 

[Nova]

Atomic Blonde(July release date but it's the very end so I'm including it in this list lol), The Dark Tower, and The Hitman's Bodyguard are films I expect to surprise in the dead of August. I'm looking forward to 2 of the 3 but I can't deny that the trailers for all 3 films have gotten strong reactions. Now it just comes down to how the films are marketed. 

[POTUS 2020]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

Im hoping for an 18 mill friday for Gotg2

 

@EmpireCity.....can u shed some light?

16.4m and should beget 60.6m

[a2k]

16.4 is a 129% bump from 7.16 Thu.

CA3 was +140% and TA2 was +146.5%.

 

Sat bumps were 59% for TA2 and 63% for CA3.

Sun drops were 33% for TA2 and 34% for CA3.

Using +58% and -35% on Sat and Sun, worse hold than min-Sat and min-Sun above by 1%, we get a 59.1.

Using a better hold than max-Sat and max-Sun above by 1%, +64% on Sat and -32% on Sun, we get 61.5.

(avg. 60.3)

 

EDIT:

 

But Mother's Day Sunday could help GOTG2.

It didn't help CA3 much in the OW, maybe because Sun was already jam-packed and didn't have much room to grow. Also CA3 was more serious than GOTG2.

With GOTG2 as the MD Sunday is in 2nd weekend, it has room for growth, room for repeat viewings to kick in and GOTG2 is more light-hearted.

 

So a stronger Sunday by 2-3%, could up that 59-61.5 range to 60-63.

Edited May 13, 2017 by a2knet

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

16.4m and should beget 60.6m

 

I think mid $60m range is more likely.  

[baumer]

12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

He said $16.4M.

 

Hmmm so thats about a 60 mill weekend. Less than i hoped.

[EmpireCity]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh August looks dreadful, I think the single hit will be Annabelle Creation. 

 

Detroit is going to do very well.  Hitman's Bodyguard isn't great but will be a crowd pleasing hit.  

[baumer]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think mid $60m range is more likely.  

 

Can u give me your breakdown then? I hope you are right. I had this pegged at a 57 or 58 percentage drop all week. But that would probably require a 60% jump on Saturday and a less than 30% drop on Sunday. In order for it to get to the mid-sixties can you give me a breakdown of what you think it will do on Saturday and Sunday?

[keysersoze123]

Guardians probably has large % of gross with Imax/PLF. That limits saturday increase. Dont think its going to be that much different to CW last year.

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Detroit is going to do very well.  Hitman's Bodyguard isn't great but will be a crowd pleasing hit.  

 

I think September will more than make up for a lackluster August

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Can u give me your breakdown then? I hope you are right. I had this pegged at a 57 or 58 percentage drop all week. But that would probably require a 60% jump on Saturday and a less than 30% drop on Sunday. In order for it to get to the mid-sixties can you give me a breakdown of what you think it will do on Saturday and Sunday?

 

I think it jumps up to 70% on Saturday as it plays more like a family film.  Civil War went up 63% on 2nd Saturday.  

 

Drop on Sunday should be at or better than the 34% that Civil War had due to Mother's Day and lack of other options.  

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Can u give me your breakdown then? I hope you are right. I had this pegged at a 57 or 58 percentage drop all week. But that would probably require a 60% jump on Saturday and a less than 30% drop on Sunday. In order for it to get to the mid-sixties can you give me a breakdown of what you think it will do on Saturday and Sunday?

 

Probably Mother's Day should help keep the Sun drop closer to 30%.

It didn't help CA3 in the ow probably cause it was more serious than GOTG2, and in the ow as it is there is some saturation/lack room to grow on day 3/lack of repeat viewings.

 

Probably GOTG2 will have more room to swing on MD Sun.

[Krissykins]

$5,300,000 for King Arthur

$5,000,000 for Snatched

 

Source: THR