The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Tonight at my theater:

 

A Quiet Place: 23/78

Blockers: 7/78

5:00 Miracle Season: 2/60

7:30 Miracle Season: 0/60

 

Insidious was only at 3 tickets the morning of previews and finished with 34 seats in the biggest auditorium. A Quiet Place has the potential to double that in this showing alone, and I have a feeling another one will be added  

Blockers is pacing ahead of Game Night by a good margin.

Edited April 5, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

From the IW thread.....

 

200m+ OW for IW

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-record-box-office-opening-1202358812/

 

In unaided awareness, that portion of survey-taking where the person being polled brings up a movie title without being prompted, Infinity War has a huge 42, a score that’s higher than The Force Awakens (36, $247.9M), Black Panther (35, $202M), The Last Jedi (35, $220M), Jurassic World (24, $209M) and Avengers (26, $207M).

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).

[FlashMaster659]

deleted

Edited April 5, 2018 by FlashMaster659

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

From the IW thread.....

 

200m+ OW for IW

http://deadline.com/2018/04/avengers-infinity-war-record-box-office-opening-1202358812/

 

In unaided awareness, that portion of survey-taking where the person being polled brings up a movie title without being prompted, Infinity War has a huge 42, a score that’s higher than The Force Awakens (36, $247.9M), Black Panther (35, $202M), The Last Jedi (35, $220M), Jurassic World (24, $209M) and Avengers (26, $207M).

Other strong indicators: First choice where Infinity War has an enormous 38 which is also higher than The Force Awakens (22, $247.9M), Black Panther (25, $202M), The Last Jedi (23, $220M), and Jurassic World (17, $209M), and Avengers (21, $207M).

Unaided awareness higher than recent movie .. .  "the movie could open to $200M-plus".  Way to go out on a limb there...

 

God this is dumb

 

Quote

The asterisk here is that when films chart this high on tracking, it becomes hard to predict their opening, and we also have to remind you of the cap that April has: its record $100M-plus weekends of Furious 7 ($147M) and Fate of the Furious ($98.7M) occurred over Easter holiday weekends, while The Jungle Book popped to a $103.2M during the middle of the month. Only 5% K-12 and 4% colleges are off during the April 27-29 opening weekend for Infinity War, but school never stopped the kids from fueling a record weekend at the box office. Furthermore there were slightly more schools on break on Infinity War‘s original weekend of May 4 (2% K-12 and 16% colleges per ComScore).

 

[Eric Quinn]

Weekend Sales:

A Quiet Place	185	1672	11.06%
Blockers	65	1899	3.42%

 

AQP Comps:

313% of Happy Death Day ($81.6M)

197% of Insidious 4 ($54.5M) (This is excluding previews for both, since the theater was closed on Insidious' Thursday previews due to the weather)

561% of Winchester ($52.2M)

284% of Strangers 2 ($29.6M)

 

 

Blockers Comps:

81% of Game Night ($13.8M)

 

This is a hard one to have good comps for, because Bad Moms, DH2, and PP3 are all sequels, so their presales are fan-driven, and Father Figures only sold 4 tickets, but...seems about right tbh...okay, maybe somewhere in the higher teens.

Edited April 5, 2018 by CoolEric258

[Brainbug]

I mean we dont have any actual numbers till tomorrow, but i so root for A Quiet Place to top 50M!

[KeepItU25071906]

200+ for Avengers?

 

Does it mean from 201 to 299?

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Fancyarcher]

 

[Boxofficerules]

11 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

Is this expected to do much, would have thought A Quiet Place would steal its audience.

[MovieMan89]

Ugh, Deadline is annoying. If they don't even have the sense to predict higher than TLJ's OW given all those stats they just listed, then they shouldn't bother giving a projection at all. 

 

Anyways, the release date isn't gonna matter one bit for its OW potential. As the stats show, there's barely a difference in schools out between those two weekends anyways. Never stopped the first weekend of May from being the go to OW record setter before. The one and only thing I thought could maybe dampen OW a little bit about the move was if some people weren't aware of it. But given unaided awareness for it is at an all time high, gonna go ahead and say that's not gonna be an issue at all. 

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:

 

A Quiet Place: 47/78 (+24)

Blockers: 11/78 (+4)

5:00 Miracle Season: 2/60

7:00 Miracle Season: 0/60

 

AQP is now at 140% of Insidious' final total (41.4M) with about 35% less capacity  IIRC, Split finished in the high-40s in one of the theater's smallest auditoriums.

[Goldsheet]

Is the AQP debate now over under $40m?

[WrathOfHan]

BOP predictions: https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-quiet-place-blockers-chappaquiddick-miracle-season/

 

A Quiet Place: 30.5M 

Ready Player One: 22M (-47%)

Blockers: 19.5M

Acrimony: 7.8M (-55%)

Black Panther: 7.6M (-34%)

I Can Only Imagine: 7.3M (-30%)

Sherlock Gnomes: 5.8M (-17%)

Pacific Rim: 4.3M (-54%)

The Miracle Season: 3.5M

Chappaquiddick: 3.1M

[Krissykins]

A tip for all you guys going to see Quiet Place this weekend:

 

See it at an unpopular time. Pay for premium. This film needs to be seen with a well behaved audience.

 

My audience was silent, thank god. But I can imagine loud mouth people ruining it. 

[TalismanRing]

From counting I'm getting different numbers from this hourly automated count on Fandango.  Anyone else?   I'm getting almost double the raw numbers per minute

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-04-05 13:56:52 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-04-05 13:00:00	1066	A Quiet Place
2018-04-05 13:00:00	409	Ready Player One
2018-04-05 13:00:00	286	Blockers
2018-04-05 13:00:00	181	Avengers Infinity War

 

During two separate 5 minute periods between the same rolling hour - or rather 57 minutes  I got avg for  A Quiet Place of 34.6 (2:30pm) and 38.3 (3pm) or a 36.45 per minute  and a 9 avg for Blockers.

 

The automated chart gives a per minute avg for AQP of 18.86 (1066/ 56.52) and Blockers as 5 (286/56.52)

 

[That One Girl]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

313% of Happy Death Day ($81.6M)

 

This will happen.

[That One Girl]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A tip for all you guys going to see Quiet Place this weekend:

 

See it at an unpopular time. Pay for premium. This film needs to be seen with a well behaved audience.

 

My audience was silent, thank god. But I can imagine loud mouth people ruining it. 

 

already made plans for tomorrow night hahaha WHOOPS

[WrathOfHan]

A weeknight is probably the best time for me to see AQP. If only I had someone to go with me  

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A weeknight is probably the best time for me to see AQP. If only I had someone to go with me  

 

[DAJK]

22 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A tip for all you guys going to see Quiet Place this weekend:

 

See it at an unpopular time. Pay for premium. This film needs to be seen with a well behaved audience.

 

My audience was silent, thank god. But I can imagine loud mouth people ruining it. 

Gotta be on my game as usher, ain't gonna let no dumb teenagers ruin the movie for others

 

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A weeknight is probably the best time for me to see AQP. If only I had someone to go with me  

Get your ass over to British Columbia this weekend then