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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Probably would've been a bigger deal had Emily Blunt returned.

It only would have been a big deal if the great Villeneuve would have stuck around.  If this isn't worth the Supreme Leader's time, it's not worth mine!

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EarlyDeadlinePredictions Box Office Gold

EarlyDeadlinePredictions

Posted
Posted
On 6/26/2018 at 12:30 PM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

12:30 PM ET - MT Update

 

48.3% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

35.1% The Incredibles 2

3.3% Ocean's 8

2.3% Tag

1.3% Deadpool 2

 

12:55 PM ET - MT Update

 

43.6% Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

34.2% The Incredibles 2

4.1% Ocean's 8

3.4% Tag

1.8% Deadpool 2

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted

I don’t see how Sicario being at 2% on MT and replacing a movie (DP2) that’s making under $1M in its dallies suddenly means the $12M tracking is that far off. It’ll probably make closer to $15M than $12M but it’s not like the film is looking at some huge breakout lol And if it hits say $14M that’s where box office pro has it at anyways lol 

 

The movie always seemed like it would be a low to mid teens opener. 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed
       
A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665
Blockers  504 1106 2931
Rampage 705 1508 4109
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133
Super Troopers 2825 3447 6881
I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423
Avengers: Infinity War 49836 54892 68826
Overboard 84 409 1044
Breaking In 727 1204 2899
Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010
Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212
Show Dogs 6 128 369
Book Club 836 1599 3283
SW: Solo 15855 15855 28533
Action Point  17 48 197
Upgrade  9 119 522
Adrift 63 308 1268
Oceans 8 3009 4372 11114
Hereditary (R) 659 1178 3181
Hotel Artemis  26 166 520
Incredibles 2 20872 23430 39337
Tag 314 660 1448
Jurassic World 2 9310 12761 23,266
Sicario 2 788 1282  
Uncle Drew 274 473  
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed
       
A Quiet Place 2177 4003 10665
Blockers  504 1106 2931
Rampage 705 1508 4109
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2133
Super Troopers 2825 3447 6881
I Feel Pretty 871 1610 4423
Avengers: Infinity War 49836 54892 68826
Overboard 84 409 1044
Breaking In 727 1204 2899
Life Of The Party 587 1310 3010
Deadpool 2 23134 28896 41212
Show Dogs 6 128 369
Book Club 836 1599 3283
SW: Solo 15855 15855 28533
Action Point  17 48 197
Upgrade  9 119 522
Adrift 63 308 1268
Oceans 8 3009 4372 11114
Hereditary (R) 659 1178 3181
Hotel Artemis  26 166 520
Incredibles 2 20872 23430 39337
Tag 314 660 1448
Jurassic World 2 9310 12761 23,266
Sicario 2 788 1282  
Uncle Drew 274 473  

Those seem like some strong ass numbers for Sicario. Seems to me like it could do $15M+ then probably high teens. $12M tracking my ass @WrathOfHan :sparta:

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Just now, Barnack said:

Is there a good comparable for Sicario 2 on that list ?

Not really - the closest may be Hotel Artemis but that was such an under performer niche movie with a much smaller  marketing campaign.   The other adult skewing movies are horror or comedy which tend to be even more walk up heavy.  But of those maybe Hereditary.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

BOP: https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-incredibles-2-look-repeat-sicario-day-soldado-uncle-drew-open/

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Universal $62,000,000 $267,900,000 -58%
Incredibles 2 Disney / Pixar $47,100,000 $441,400,000 -41%
Uncle Drew Lionsgate / Summit $16,000,000 $16,000,000 NEW
Sicario: Day of the Soldado Sony / Columbia $14,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW
Ocean’s 8 Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $114,400,000 -31%
Tag Warner Bros. $5,400,000 $40,500,000 -35%
Deadpool 2 Fox $3,300,000 $310,100,000 -37%
Solo: A Star Wars Story Disney / Lucasfilm $2,600,000 $207,500,000 -42%
Hereditary A24 $2,300,000 $39,500,000 -37%
Avengers: Infinity War Disney / Marvel $1,700,000 $672,800,000 -34%
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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

I don't really follow tracking for older skewing dramas, but what's the pattern for those types of movies and when they show up on Pulse/MT?

Can't help you in general but of course the earlier they show up the better ;). I remember Sully appearing on MT on Wednesday noon (EST) with 5-6% and having 12% in the evening which led to an OW of 35M. That film is often my benchmark.

MT update:

#1 JW2 39.6%
#2 TI2 35.7%
#3 Sicario 4.4%

#4 O8 3.2%

#5 Tag 2.1%

I guess for early Thursday that's a good number for Sicario 2. The first movie didn't appear as early as Wednesday. According to my "records" (I do that from time to time for later comparisons) Sicario had 5% on Friday evening; of course now it's a sequel and three years later but still.

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Rebeccas Box Office Gold

Rebeccas

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, el sid said:

Can't help you in general but of course the earlier they show up the better ;). I remember Sully appearing on MT on Wednesday noon (EST) with 5-6% and having 12% in the evening which led to an OW of 35M. That film is often my benchmark.

MT update:

#1 JW2 39.6%
#2 TI2 35.7%
#3 Sicario 4.4%

#4 O8 3.2%

#5 Tag 2.1%

I guess for early Thursday that's a good number for Sicario 2. The first movie didn't appear as early as Wednesday. According to my "records" (I do that from time to time for later comparisons) Sicario had 5% on Friday evening; of course now it's a sequel and three years later but still.

Yeah, although I guess Sully opened in a pretty dead week without much holdover competition and there's just not many older skewing dramas that open in the middle of summer while giants like JW2 and Incredibles are kicking. Also there's not many older skewing dramas with sequels lol.

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