The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

The NBA playoff ads campaign for the Equalizer was a good one imo, probably not cheap but you are directly reaching a good portion of the older male target audience for this.

Edited June 29, 2018 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Jurassic World:

 

10:00: 15/78

10:30 3D: 0/78

11:30: 20/124

12:30: 5/78

1:30 3D: 1/78

2:30: 11/124

3:30: 0/78

4:30 3D: 0/78

5:30: 2/124

6:30: 18/78

7:30 3D: 6/78

8:30: 19/124

9:30: 0/78

 

Incredibles 2:

 

10:00: 16/113

11:00: 21/78

12:00 3D: 0/60

1:00: 9/113

2:00: 5/78

3:00 3D: 0/60

4:00: 3/113

5:00: 4/78

6:00 3D: 0/60

7:00: 30/113

8:00: 0/78

9:45: 0/78

 

Sicario:

 

10:05: 26/78

12:55: 2/78

3:45: 6/78

6:40:  6/78

9:35: 0/78

 

Uncle Drew:

 

11:15: 11/78

12:40: 0/69

1:50: 1/78

4:25: 22/78 (group buyout is present here)

7:05: 0/78

8:55: 2/69

10:00: 0/113

 

Jurassic World: 97/1,198 (90 2D/7 3D)

Incredibles 2: 88/1,022 (all 2D)

Sicario: 40/390

Uncle Drew: 36/563 (16 without group buyout)

I don't feel like tracking the rest right now lol

 

Sicario is basically on the level of The Commuter, Death Wish, and Hostiles. The morning frontloadedness indicates this is going to be very older skewing here at least.

Uncle Drew is at 115% of Tag when the group buyout is removed (17.1M). Given Tag had a Fathers Day boost, that comp would be closer to 15-15.5M

Edited June 29, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Final preview sales (I'm calling them a few minutes early; walkups this late aren't going to happen):

 

Uncle Drew:

7:00: 33/78

9:50: 3/78

Total: 36/156

 

Sicario:

7:00: 22/60

9:55: 9/60

Total: 31/120

 

Uncle Drew did 95% of Tag (14.2M).

Sicario comps:

 

100% of 12 Strong (15.8M)

110% of Hostiles (11.1M)

120% of The Commuter (16.4M)

125% of Death Wish (16.3M)

[dxmatrixdt]

seemed like Uncle Drew was averaging about 40/showing ~7pm and Sicario about 80/showing ~7pm.  West Coast Northern Cal.  will try to find the 10pm second showing and make comparison w/ analysis.

[Rebeccas]

Sicario 2 was really full tonight, probably around 95%. Was pretty surprising. 

[filmlover]

I could see Mamma Mia opening to $40M and The Equalizer opening to $30M for a big combined weekend.

[Eric Prime]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

 

Get that money, Denzel.

That Mamma Mia range doesn't bode well for my club.

[Rebeccas]

Mamma Mia 2 has done fan screenings already and I heard it was a bit mixed. Not that it really matters.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Mamma Mia 2 has done fan screenings already and I heard it was a bit mixed. Not that it really matters.

The mixed reactions depend on whether they're coming from fans of the first. Obviously it won't be a critical darling  

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, mathemetrics said:

seemed like Uncle Drew was averaging about 40/showing ~7pm and Sicario about 80/showing ~7pm.  West Coast Northern Cal.  will try to find the 10pm second showing and make comparison w/ analysis.

 

sorry, never got back to the second round.  w/ round guesses, id say 1m Uncle Drew, 2m Sicario

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

Mamma Mia 2 has done fan screenings already and I heard it was a bit mixed. Not that it really matters.

I cant wait for James Bond to sing again

That was brutal.

Pierce Brosnan, Russel Crowe and Ryan Groslin.  That would be some acapella show

[DAJK]

Nicely surprised by that tracking number for Equalizer. Was really thinking it would stall int he low 20's, so a 30 weekend would be awesome for it. Denzel is so consistent at the box office it's scary. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Equalizer could go either way.  Denzel should push it to 20m OW which likely gives cushion to raise the OW to match Equalizer 1.

[WrathOfHan]

I’m glad I decided to have The Equalizer in my pre-season and pushed Sicario out  

[el sid]

MT update:

#1 JW2 35.3%
#2 TI2 33.6%
#3 Sicario2 8.5%
#4 Uncle Drew 5.2%
#5 O8 3.4%

[dxmatrixdt]

not looking good for another 10m weekend for Oceans 8

[dxmatrixdt]

I made this interesting chart that shows the theater counts and theater losses for the films on the chart all the way down to Adrift and how it might go with The First Purge opening Wednesday and Ant-Man 2 on Friday.

 

(-363) Adrift 508 - Fri - Tues        (-135) Gotti 331    (-1,063) Superfly 1,157

(-100) Adrift 408 - Wed - Thurs   (----)  Gotti 331       (-200) Superfly  957

(-200) Adrift 208 - Fri - Thurs      (-131) Gotti 200       (-457) Superfly  500

 

(-90) Rampage 201 - Fri - Tues            (-167) Book Club 505    (-578) Hereditary 1,424

(----) Rampage 201 - Wed - Thurs       (-50)   Book Club 455    (-300) Hereditary 1,124

(-90) Rampage 111 - Fri - Thurs           (-200) Book Club 255    (-400) Hereditary   724 

 

(-566) Infinity War 890 - Fri - Tues        (-184) Solo 1,654           (-326) Deadpool 2,094

  (-90) Infinity War 800 - Wed - Thurs   (-100) Solo 1,554           (-100) Deadpool 1,994

(-300) Infinity War 500 - Fri - Thurs       (-700) Solo 954             (-600) Deadpool 1,394

 

(-206) Tag 3,176 - Fri - Tues                  (-230) Ocean's 8 3,426  (-----) Incredibles 4,410

(-150) Tag 3026 - Wed - Thurs              (-100) Ocean's 8 3,326  (-----) Incredibles 4,410

(-800) Tag 2,226 - Fri - Thurs                 (-500) Ocean's 8 2,826  (-----) Incredibles 4,010

 

(+306) Neighbor 654 - Fri - Tues         (+10) Jurassic World 4,485

(-----) Neighbor 654 - Wed - Thurs     (-----) Jurassic World 4,485

(-----) Neighbor 654 - Fri - Thurs        (-200) Jurassic World 4,285

 

 

this makes (-1,190) on Wednesday and Purge opening with 3,200.

 

this also makes (-4,978) more on Friday and Ant-Man opening with 4,300.

 

the data looks basic as far as what can one expect with 1 opening Wednesday and another one Friday.  

 

going with dailies for the next 7-10 days and basic theater count losses is likely to get you more accurate totals when mixing with the results.  

[dxmatrixdt]

does anyone know how many days the Thursday numbers open to?

[Krissykins]

Pro box office updated their long range and put:

 

Happytime Murders at $18m

Slenderman at $19m

 

They have $77m for Ant-Man and reduced Skyscraper to $36.5m. 

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Pro box office updated their long range and put:

 

Happytime Murders at $18m

Slenderman at $19m

 

They have $77m for Ant-Man and reduced Skyscraper to $36.5m. 

Will Slenderman even open in August?