The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

You could try Hotel Transylvania. I really don’t know at this point tbh cause when you compare it to films like CR or Dumbo, it blows them out the door but then when you compare it to films like I2 or BATB it shrivels up. 

 

 

[YM!]

14x-17x may also be a fair range but this is hard to predict for Pikachu.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again I really think Dragon 3 is a good comparison as it had some of the teen/young adult audiences and let’s not pretend that both Dumbo and Christopher Robin didn’t do good in presales, and it was obvious it had a more adult presence than regular animation.

HTTYD3:   3.0m previews. 55.02 OW (18.340x)

Chris Rob: 1.5m previews. 24.56 OW (16.373x) SUMMER MOVIE

 

===

 

So Pika Pika will either have a 10x, 14x, or 18x multi.  Or something in between.

 

Glad we were able to clear that up. 👍

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Dragon 3 would be good except it had those early previews that skewed numbers. 

I just remove the Fandango previews from the OW total ($3M/$55M (which gives us a 18.33 multiple)). Not sure if it helps but it’s there.

 

Bumblebee can also work.

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

HTTYD3:   3.0m previews. 55.02 OW (18.340x)

Chris Rob: 1.5m previews. 24.56 OW (16.374x) SUMMER MOVIE

 

===

 

So Pika Pika will either have a 10x, 14x, or 18x multi.  Or something in between.

 

Glad we were able to clear that up. 👍

Thanks for settling the debate once and for all 

Edited May 2, 2019 by HouseOfTheSun

[Nova]

I’m sticking with the low teens range simply because if I go any higher with a multiplier, and use my theater as comps with other films (which are all over the place), it’d be doing $100M+ and it’s shown no signs of doing that whereas a low teens multiplier puts it in that $50-70M. 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

HTTYD3:   3.0m previews. 55.02 OW (18.340x)

Chris Rob: 1.5m previews. 24.56 OW (16.374x) SUMMER MOVIE

 

===

 

So Pika Pika will either have a 10x, 14x, or 18x multi.  Or something in between.

 

Glad we were able to clear that up. 👍

Your post has pretty much summarized what it’s been like tracking this movie. 

 

Almost like @RtheEnd decided to throw us a riddle but in movie form. 

[YM!]

Just now, Nova said:

I’m sticking with the low teens range simply because if I go any higher with a multiplier, and use my theater as comps with other films (which are all over the place), it’d be doing $100M+ and it’s shown no signs of doing that whereas a low teens multiplier puts it in that $50-70M. 

When I use my comparisons, I just factor in the Thursday numbers for what each movie has done at my theater and then divide the percentages and use that to factor the OW.

[stfletch]

Factor of Fandango Pulse pre-sale units between AEG and AIW as of end of Monday and end of Tuesday. Factor is coming down because AIW was able to increase a lot more in relative terms from a much lower level. By Thursday night, the factor might give us a reasonable estimate by comparing to AIW 2nd weekend.

 

		2019-04-22	2019-04-23
		MON	TUE
2019-04-26	FRI	3.06	2.30
2019-04-27	SAT	3.08	2.49
2019-04-28	SUN	3.45	2.77

[Nova]

Also excuse my stupidity but summer movies tend to have lower IMs, right cause more kids can go Thursday night or is it other way around? 

[Mulder]

Just now, Nova said:

Also excuse my stupidity but summer movies tend to have lower IMs, right cause more kids can go Thursday night or is it other way around? 

DP's not in the summer season yet so that won't really matter.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I just remove the Fandango previews from the OW total ($3M/$55M (which gives us a 18.33 multiple)). Not sure if it helps but it’s there.

 

Bumblebee can also work.

Ah, yes, that had early access, didn't it.  Poop.  Oh well, don't feel like tying to figure out what the preview 'should' have been (like we were doing for Shazam!)

[Nova]

Just now, Mulder said:

DP's not in the summer season yet so that won't really matter.

Yea but I’m saying when using films that were released in the summer. Just for futures sake lol 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

You could try Hotel Transylvania. I really don’t know at this point tbh cause when you compare it to films like CR or Dumbo, it blows them out the door but then when you compare it to films like I2 or BATB it shrivels up.

The first trailer and it's amount of views would gear it more toward an I2 kind of appeal than CR, Dumbo or Mary Poppins.  It has 60m views on the WB YT channel.  The second one has 25m views.

 

Throw another comp out there - Power Rangers.  Yes it was PG-13 but it's another property from the 90s targeting kids but also the adult who used to watch it as kids.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The first trailer and it's amount of views would gear it more toward an I2 kind of appeal than CR, Dumbo or Mary Poppins.  It has 60m views on the WB YT channel.  The second one has 25m views.

 

Throw another comp out there - Power Rangers.  Yes it was PG-13 but it's another property from the 90s targeting kids but also the adult who used to watch it as kids.

Yes but it’s presales don’t indicate an I2 or BATB kind of appeal. Kinda like how Fallen Kingdom had a lot of trailer views but its presales didn’t indicate that either. 

 

And if you flip it, MPR had less trailers views but still did really well in presales if I remember correctly. 

 

So not sure I wanna go on that either. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Nova

[TwoMisfits]

One thing I'll say on Pikachu...which I said for some other movies recently:)...RELAX:)...

 

It's gonna find its audience and it's gonna do well...but, is it gonna do Endgame well - no...is it gonna do "win the summer well" - no (I picked Spidey in March to do so, and I'm sticking with that:)...but is it gonna pull at least Shazam DOM numbers - yes, I'm almost certain it goes higher (I'll eat crow later:).  I expect a slightly depressed open (vs what I'd have expected in March), and a really good run at least though SLOP 2, b/c I don't think Aladdin will be pulling from the same family or adult audience (I think that Aladdin will be older Disney fan 35+ while Pika will be the 13-35 teen/young adult, and Aladdin will be princess/Disney channel fan kid audience vs Pika which will be gamer and geek kid audience)...and I think Aladdin is aiming to pull less strongly on the kids (their MP2/Dumbo/B&TB marketing) and more on the adults whereas Pika has been focused, like SLOP and Minions, on pulling the kids 1st...

 

PS - My locals are only preselling a single screen, but one has it booked on the largest and the other has it booked on an average screen, so Endgame will finally give some of those up...and my locals are selling well so far, so I expect both to at least have 2 screens for Pika.  I'd have thought 3 minimum before $357M, but I'm reining in that expectation a little b/c it will be so tight that weekend:)...

[YM!]

Lego Batman might be a good comparison as it had decent online buzz but not as much as Pikachu as well as more male skewed.

 

Spider Verse and Lego Movie 2 may also work.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Lego Batman might be a good comparison as it had decent online buzz but not as much as Pikachu as well as more male skewed.

 

Spider Verse and Lego Movie 2 may also work.

Pikachu went ahead of that in Deep Wang’s presales a couple of weeks ago so I can imagine it’s only grown it’s lead. Spider verse maybe good though cause you can factor in the CBM crowd and apply that for any fanboys Pikachu attracts 

 

im honestly not trying to nitpick but all the comps I have is either it being way too high (imo) or way too low (imo) 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The first trailer and it's amount of views would gear it more toward an I2 kind of appeal than CR, Dumbo or Mary Poppins.  It has 60m views on the WB YT channel.  The second one has 25m views.

 

Throw another comp out there - Power Rangers.  Yes it was PG-13 but it's another property from the 90s targeting kids but also the adult who used to watch it as kids.

I2 has the problem of being right at the beginning of summer.

 

But, sure, let's do I2 and Power Rangers:

 

Inc 2:  18.5m previews. 182.69m OW (9.875x) SUMMER MOVIE

Power:  3.6m previews.   40.30m OW (11.194x)

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Pikachu went ahead of that in Deep Wang’s presales a couple of weeks ago.

 

im honestly not trying to nitpick but all the comps I have is either it being way too high (imo) or way too low (imo) 

For my comps it is the opposite apparent from DM3, Pikachu for now is consistently around high 50s to low 60s, my problem is I don’t know if the comparisons are good enough as I2 is animated with more of a fan rush and Venom is way less child friendly.