The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TMP]

I agree with numbers that Aladdin will be over Godzilla, but can’t see $200m for either tbh. Pika Pika could still go over that threashold depending on opening

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

Uglydolls comps:

137% of Show Dogs (8.3M)

29% of Goosebumps 2 (4.6M)

33% of A Dog's Way Home (3.7M)

52% of The Kid Who Would be King (3.7M)

29% of Wonder Park (4.6M)

80% of Missing Link (4.7M)

 

lol

 

But how will it reach 55M with an 8M OW?

 

[dakus]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

But how will it reach 55M with an 8M OW?

 

With its inevitable A+ Cinemascore and phenomenal word of mouth, obviously.

Edited May 2, 2019 by dakus

[Nova]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

But how will it reach 55M with an 8M OW?

 

Double features with End Game. 

[Biggestgeekever]

I really don't know what STX was thinking with this release, especially given their financial woes of late. At least they were smart enough to not put Playmobil, which should have more potential than UglyDolls, in this slot.

[Biggestgeekever]

And we're back!. Aladdin tracking: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-aladdin-tracking-80m-memorial-day-weekend-debut-1206744?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Direct

 

$80M (with some trackers thinking $100M) for the 4-day weekend.

 

Also

Quote

Fox and New Regency's science fiction feature starring Brad Pitt, Ad Astra, is also set for a May 24 bow. But the movie did not appear on tracking, indicating that it will not open on that date.

lol

Edited May 2, 2019 by Biggestgeekever

[Eric Prime]

By comparison, a couple weeks befor release, Solo had projections of $170M for the 4-Day, while Pirates 5 was about $115M for the 4-Day.

 

So yeah, doesn't bode that well for it to stick, but with this being more family-driven, maybe things will be different?

[Cappoedameron]

Strange they're tracking Aladdin but not Detective Pikachu and not even the person that wrote the Pikachu article believes in it's tracking. It's way too low. I find it interesting that if it wasn't for Mendelson's article nobody would have posted anything about Pika's tracking. Guess it really is a headache to track.

[YM!]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

By comparison, a couple weeks befor release, Solo had projections of $170M for the 4-Day, while Pirates 5 was about $115M for the 4-Day.

 

So yeah, doesn't bode that well for it to stick, but with this being more family-driven, maybe things will be different?

That’s what I’m expecting to be honest, an $80M/$115M/$250M-$270M seems right on the money. Though the next two weekends will be rough on account of Pets 2 and the post Memorial Day drop.

[Deep Wang]

No numbers, but MTC is forecasting 165m second weekend for Endgame. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by Deep Wang

[filmlover]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

By comparison, a couple weeks befor release, Solo had projections of $170M for the 4-Day, while Pirates 5 was about $115M for the 4-Day.

 

So yeah, doesn't bode that well for it to stick, but with this being more family-driven, maybe things will be different?

Said this in the movie's actual thread but Beauty and the Beast began with $120M with first tracking and ended up around $175M. So definitely throws things for a bit of a curve.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

No numbers, but MTC is forecasting 165m. 

For Endgame or Aladdin?

[Cooper Legion]

The newest BOP trailer track seem to be missing a write up for Aladdin in the recall section: https://www.boxofficepro.com/trailer-impact-5-2-19/

 

@Shawn   

 

Also I’m very curious how the new FFH trailer with possible Endgame spoilers will place next week.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

For Endgame or Aladdin?

Whoops. Fixed. 

[dakus]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

For Endgame or Aladdin?

Uglydolls, obviously

Edited May 2, 2019 by dakus

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

The Intruder: 35/15 minutes – yesterday 15/15; Escape Room (18.2M OW) had 36/15, Cold Pursuit (11.0M OW) 30/15, The Girl in the Spider's Web (7.8M OW) 32/15, Serenity (4.4M OW) 23/15, Greta (4.5M OW) 14/15, all same day and time of the day.
Long Shot: 26/15 – yesterday 19/15 so no big jump; Isn't It Romantic (14.2M OW) had 25/15 at that time on Tuesday, What Men Want (18.2M OW) 87/15 at that time on Thursday.
UglyDolls: 20/15 – yesterday 8/15; Lego Movie 2 (34.1M OW) had 110/15, Wonder Park (15.9M OW) had 44/15, Missing Link (5.9M OW) 8/15, The Kid Who Would be King (7.2M OW) 16/15, all same day and time of the day.
El Chicano: 1/15

Pika: 16/15 – yesterday 11/15
John Wick 3: 5/15 – yesterday 11/15
Aladdin: 10/15 – yesterday 10/15

And Pulse today 10:50-11:04 EST:

The Intruder: 60/15 minutes – yesterday 35/15; Escape Room had 80/15, Cold Pursuit 47/15, The Girl in the Spider's Web 45/15, Greta 16/15 and Serenity 31/15, all same day and time of the day. Quite ok, maybe the reviews hurt a bit but it should really manage it to stay above 10M OW.
Long Shot: 42/15 – yesterday 23/15; Isn't It Romantic had 63/15 at that time on Tuesday, What Men Want 117/15 at that time on Thursday. I saw that proboxoffice.com predicts a 10M OW and that could fit, hopefully.
UglyDolls: 30/15 – yesterday 20/15; Lego Movie 2 had 160/15, Wonder Park: 59/15, Missing Link 13/15, all same day and time of the day. Stays muted. Without good walk ups these mentioned 8M could come true.
El Chicano: 2/15 – yesterday 2/15.

Pika: 25/15 – yesterday 17/15, same here, it improves.
John Wick 3: 5/15 – yesterday 15/15
Aladdin: 5/15 – yesterday 17/15

Edited May 2, 2019 by el sid

[Cappoedameron]

Wow Pika is starting to increase momentum and fast. I wonder if the embargo lifting is going to skyrocket the sales? I still think this is gonna be very heavy walk up friendly but seems like Pikachu is finally starting to take off.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Pikachu is simply seeing a normal increase (maybe a little below it tbh)

[Biggestgeekever]

Deadline is lower on Aladdin, $70-90M over the long weekend: https://deadline.com/2019/05/aladdin-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-will-smith-1202606259/

[Cappoedameron]

Deadline nor HR reported any tracking for Pikachu last week, and that was really weird. Seems like that movie isn't just giving the people here a headache like Psyduck.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Cappoedameron