The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

For personal experience and some good news, Menominee Falls tends to be a bit more walk up based than North Shore.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

In a completely unforeseeable event, Pulse is broken again. 

 

Getting to the point where I'm going to mention Pulse is still up on weekends as opposed to letting folks here know it's broken again. 

I just don't understand why. Like I understood last weekend and the week leading up to it BUT like this just seems insane now.

[Porthos]

Just now, Nova said:

I just don't understand why. Like I understood last weekend and the week leading up to it BUT like this just seems insane now.

Now thinking it's a flood control to avoid another EG like blink set way too low.  Either that or it's a buggy patch as mentioned by @Stewart.  

 

Whatever it is, it's irritating as all hell.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Now thinking it's a flood control to avoid another EG like blink set way too low.  Either that or it's a buggy patch as mentioned by @Stewart.  

 

Whatever it is, it's irritating as all hell.

I can't even track any of the upcoming openers because of it. I'd be fine using my theater and feeling confident doing so but I don't have reliable comps for any of the upcoming films. It's just me throwing a dart at the wall and hoping the comp I used ends up working. 

[Tinalera]

On 5/3/2019 at 11:27 PM, Jonwo said:

I imagine they’ll do Black Adam first 

Yes i should have clarified. I know theyre supposed doing a BA movie so it would be Shazam then Black Adam then shazam sequel. Plus yes black adam with the rock film then a meetup in shazam 2 would help even more to bring people in.

 

My brain must be on holiday lol.

[Cappoedameron]

2 hours ago, Morieris said:

He's coming....Avengers better watch their back.

 

He's coming for that throne.

 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

He's coming for that throne.

 

This gif looks so wrong. 

 

That's all I've got. 

[Minnale101]

This really sucks. Was really tryna see where detective pikachu was at. Past 3 days completely unknown 

 

hope it’s all fixed by Tomorrow 

[Mulder]

14 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-67 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-126 (+9), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-75, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

So final days worth is Aladdin sold 9 tickets today vs the 11 I counted earlier but I might've miscounted there, Pikachu's starting to pick up as it needed to selling 9 tickets today. John Wick didn't sell any today but seeing how insane it's past two days were it was due to slow down.

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-67, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-136 (+10), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-81 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Holy fuck this Pikachu increase.  Also John Wick continues to show really good signs of breaking out.

[Minnale101]

23 minutes ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-67, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-136 (+10), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular) Final Week

John Wick-81 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Holy fuck this Pikachu increase.  Also John Wick continues to show really good signs of breaking out.

The afternoon check yesterday Detective pikachu did 0 in you’re thearter and did Total 9 at end of day 

 

hope the end total for today is bigger than 10 

[Eric Quinn]

Sigh...well, with Pulse fucking up again, might as well start some of my comps already...

 

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Detective Pikachu	332	551	832	1,094
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
John Wick 3	262	313	420	464
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Rocketman Early	0	0	113	1,045
			17 days	16 days
Aladdin	859	681	545	452
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days
Rocketman	0	0	67	87
			30 days	29 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11	8	21	12
	39 days	38 days	37 days	36 days

 

Pikachu

Day 11-8

19% of Incredibles 2 (34.1M)

148% of Lego Movie 2 (50.4M)

84% of Dragon 3 (46.3M)

109% of Dumbo (50.4M)

73% of Shazam (38.9M)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

18% of Incredibles 2 (32.6M)

138% of Lego Movie 2 (47.1M)

71% of Dragon 3 (38.9M)

74% of Dumbo (34M)

71% of Shazam (38.3M)

 

Day 30-8 (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

32% of Incredibles 2 (59.1M)

111% of Dragon 3 (61.2M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

26% of Incredibles 2 (47.3M)

311% of Lego Movie 2 (106.3M)

106% of Dragon 3 (58.2M)

168% of Dumbo (77.5M)

114% of Shazam (61.1M)

 

The range is about 35M-75M at the moment, depending on what you're looking at. But generally speaking, somewhere around 45-60M is a more specific, and more preferred, ballpark, so let's use that.

 

John Wick

Day 18-15

11% of Captain Marvel (17.4M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21, 20, 19)

10% of Captain Marvel (15.5M)

 

Day 32-15 (minus days 21, 20, 19)

18% of Captain Marvel (28.4M)

 

It may seem bad, but the issue is that I don't have any good comps outside of Captain Marvel at the moment. Glass could work, but we can't use it until Monday, so...

 

Aladdin

First 4 Days

46% of Incredibles 2 (83.5M)

110% of Dumbo (50.9M)

131% of Shazam (70M)

 

Day 25-22

115% of Incredibles 2 (210.7M)

306% of Dragon 3 (168.2M)

40% of Captain Marvel (60.9M)

 

 

I don't think the 25-22 stuff should be taken super seriously, due to first couple days inflation, but looking at the "first 4 days" section, it's...fine? I'm just hoping it leans more into Incredibles than Dumbo at the moment.

 

Rocketman Early

First 2 Days

10% of Dragon 3's Early shows ($25K)

1231% of Lego 2's Early shows ($7.4M)

7% of Shazam's Early shows ($22K)

 

Well...I thought I had an okay database to work with, but I guess not. Ah well.

 

I don't have any comps for Rocketman at all (but if someone could go into the akvalley archives and look up BoRhap or ASIB, then hey...), and Pets is still too early to do anything definitive with yet.

[Porthos]

So I was working on nice long post trying to figure out how to adjust for a lack of PLF for Pikachu while also adjusting for matinee pricing, using my figures for JW2 as a comp (since I'm comping it to Pika Pika already).

 

And then I lost it all to a computer crash. 

 

(and, no, the board's automatic save feature didn't capture it, either)

 

Not gonna go through all my rationales again, but I figured out that locally JW2 did about 8% more in ticket sales when PLF was converted to non-PLF tickets (484 more tickets of sales power for an increase of around 7.77%).

 

Also, currently, about 11% of Pikachu's sales for Thursday are at matinee pricing. It loses about 25 tickets worth of standard sales when adjusted (I'm applying a 20% discount for matinee showings, which is more or less the standard in the region).

 

I might, MIGHT, try to run a comp with both of these adjusted numbers (484 more tickets for JW2 and X number of tickets less for Pika Pika to account for matinee pricing) at final report.  

 

Complicating this is the very real fact that more kids tickets will probably be bought here and the difference in time at stop of tracking.  But I also know that not accounting for PLF at all is silly in the extreme.

 

Probably just make it a side note and see how it does as comp.

 

===

 

Mostly my Pikachu report will be for future kid-friendly flicks, especially ones with matinees, and I'm not that concerned about it's predictive value for Pika Pika.  If it even comes close at all (+/- 1m), I'll consider it a success.  As well as extremely lucky.

Edited May 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

The Saturday 11AM for Pikachu at my theater has officially sold out. Knowing my theater, they won't add another showtime for it around that time. 

[cax16]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

The Saturday 11AM for Pikachu at my theater has officially sold out. Knowing my theater, they won't add another showtime for it around that time. 

That seems very good that a show is already sold out? How many seats is that theatre? At my local theatre no showing has sold more then 40 seats for Saturday yet. 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

That seems very good that a show is already sold out? How many seats is that theatre? At my local theatre no showing has sold more then 40 seats for Saturday yet. 

142. The Saturday (and Sunday) matinees at my theater are doing really really well. But I honestly think it has more to do with how spaced out the showings are at this theater. There’s showings at 11, 4:30 and 10:00 PM. With 3D showings at 1:45 and 7:30PM. So unless you wanna watch a 2D showing at 10:00 at night, you’re stuck with the 11AM or 4:30PM and I’d imagine most parents wouldn’t wanna take their kid to a 10PM or spend money on the 3D tickets (cause the 1:45PM 3D for example has sold 4 tickets only whereas the 4:30PM 2D is filling up) 

Edited May 5, 2019 by Nova

[Nova]

But my theater has a habit of either giving weird ass showtimes or just not adding showtimes at appropriate times when demand is there. Never forget End Game being sold out on Thursday night for weeks and no new showtimes being added until a couple days before release 

[Minnale101]

That’s why I tryna see what day 7 and 6 were

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Sigh...well, with Pulse fucking up again, might as well start some of my comps already...

 

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Detective Pikachu	332	551	832	1,094
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
John Wick 3	262	313	420	464
	18 days	17 days	16 days	15 days
Rocketman Early	0	0	113	1,045
			17 days	16 days
Aladdin	859	681	545	452
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days
Rocketman	0	0	67	87
			30 days	29 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11	8	21	12
	39 days	38 days	37 days	36 days

 

Pikachu

Day 11-8

19% of Incredibles 2 (34.1M)

148% of Lego Movie 2 (50.4M)

84% of Dragon 3 (46.3M)

109% of Dumbo (50.4M)

73% of Shazam (38.9M)

 

Day 18-8 (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

18% of Incredibles 2 (32.6M)

138% of Lego Movie 2 (47.1M)

71% of Dragon 3 (38.9M)

74% of Dumbo (34M)

71% of Shazam (38.3M)

 

Day 30-8 (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

32% of Incredibles 2 (59.1M)

111% of Dragon 3 (61.2M)

 

Cumulative (minus days 14, 13 and 12)

26% of Incredibles 2 (47.3M)

311% of Lego Movie 2 (106.3M)

106% of Dragon 3 (58.2M)

168% of Dumbo (77.5M)

114% of Shazam (61.1M)

 

The range is about 35M-75M at the moment, depending on what you're looking at. But generally speaking, somewhere around 45-60M is a more specific, and more preferred, ballpark, so let's use that.

 

John Wick

Day 18-15

11% of Captain Marvel (17.4M)

 

Day 25-15 (minus days 21, 20, 19)

10% of Captain Marvel (15.5M)

 

Day 32-15 (minus days 21, 20, 19)

18% of Captain Marvel (28.4M)

 

It may seem bad, but the issue is that I don't have any good comps outside of Captain Marvel at the moment. Glass could work, but we can't use it until Monday, so...

 

Aladdin

First 4 Days

46% of Incredibles 2 (83.5M)

110% of Dumbo (50.9M)

131% of Shazam (70M)

 

Day 25-22

115% of Incredibles 2 (210.7M)

306% of Dragon 3 (168.2M)

40% of Captain Marvel (60.9M)

 

 

I don't think the 25-22 stuff should be taken super seriously, due to first couple days inflation, but looking at the "first 4 days" section, it's...fine? I'm just hoping it leans more into Incredibles than Dumbo at the moment.

 

Rocketman Early

First 2 Days

10% of Dragon 3's Early shows ($25K)

1231% of Lego 2's Early shows ($7.4M)

7% of Shazam's Early shows ($22K)

 

Well...I thought I had an okay database to work with, but I guess not. Ah well.

 

I don't have any comps for Rocketman at all (but if someone could go into the akvalley archives and look up BoRhap or ASIB, then hey...), and Pets is still too early to do anything definitive with yet.

That’s why I was tryna see what day 7 and 6 were 

 

Detective pikachu had seen a big pickup after the sonic trailer released which was the middle of day 10 

 

day 11 movies 

 

dumbo - 577

 

shazam - 859

 

legos 2 - 424

 

How to train you’re dragon 3 - 873

 

incredibles 3 - 3118 

 

detective pikachu - 332

 

 

Day 8 

 

dumbo - 564 

 

shazam - 1124

 

Legos 2 - 669

 

How to train your dragon 3 - 704 

 

incredibles 2 - 3677

 

detective pikachu - 1093

 

Day 7 and 6 movie had momentum to make a bigger distance with every movie but incredibles 2

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by Minnale101

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

So I was working on nice long post trying to figure out how to adjust for a lack of PLF for Pikachu while also adjusting for matinee pricing, using my figures for JW2 as a comp (since I'm comping it to Pika Pika already).

 

And then I lost it all to a computer crash. 

 

(and, no, the board's automatic save feature didn't capture it, either)

 

Not gonna go through all my rationales again, but I figured out that locally JW2 did about 8% more in ticket sales when PLF was converted to non-PLF tickets (484 more tickets of sales power for an increase of around 7.77%).

 

Also, currently, about 11% of Pikachu's sales for Thursday are at matinee pricing. It loses about 25 tickets worth of standard sales when adjusted (I'm applying a 20% discount for matinee showings, which is more or less the standard in the region).

 

I might, MIGHT, try to run a comp with both of these adjusted numbers (484 more tickets for JW2 and X number of tickets less for Pika Pika to account for matinee pricing) at final report.  

 

Complicating this is the very real fact that more kids tickets will probably be bought here and the difference in time at stop of tracking.  But I also know that not accounting for PLF at all is silly in the extreme.

 

Probably just make it a side note and see how it does as comp.

 

===

 

Mostly my Pikachu report will be for future kid-friendly flicks, especially ones with matinees, and I'm not that concerned about it's predictive value for Pika Pika.  If it even comes close at all (+/- 1m), I'll consider it a success.  As well as extremely lucky.

Pika is splitting Dolby with Endgame in my area, so it's getting SOME PLF, although less that one might expect for the release...

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Pika is splitting Dolby with Endgame in my area, so it's getting SOME PLF, although less that one might expect for the release...

I see that even in NY. Its have all day time shows at PLF while Endgame has evening(7PM) and late night shows. That should help Endgame's hold next weekend.

[Minnale101]

I think the 3D shows of Detective pikachu will help offset some of it 

 

a lot of booking i seen. The 3D shows seem more popular than 2D