The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

Victoria update: these are just for the 7PM shows (PST), as well as 4 PM in the case of Godzilla. I'll do another update once late-night shows start in case one or both of these movies over/underperform relative to comps. 

 

King of the Monsters:

IMAX 4:00 - 37/431

IMAX 7:00 - 122/431

Regular 4:00 - 22/110

Regular 7:00 - 59/110

 

IMAX Comps:

76% Aladdin (5.3M) --> 99% Aladdin if you just throw in the extra 37 tickets for the 4:00 show (6.9M)

130% Shazam (7.66M)

33.5% Captain Marvel (6.7M)

123% Glass (4.6M)

52% Aquaman (4.6M)

63% Fantastic Beasts (5.75M)

 

Regular Comps:

95% John Wick (5.6M)

29% Captain Marvel (5.95M)

104% Glass (3.85M)

91% Fantastic Beasts (8.3M)

 

 

Rocketman:

7:00 - 88/158

 

Comps:

68.75% Bohemian Rhapsody (2.68M and subsequently 35-36M weekend)

52% Detective Pikachu (2.95M)

113% Glass (4.17M)

163% First Man (can't remember what this did in previews... BOM doesn't list it but I'm guessing this would lead to something close to 2M)

 

 

Anyways just some thoughts on these. Obviously Godzilla is doing better in IMAX than regular showtimes. IMAX I would say seems to average out so like 6M, whereas the regular's seem a slightly lower average, so I'll go with 5.75M previews for now.

For Rocketman, I trust the Bohemian Rhapsody comp more than anything. So I'll just stick with 2.5-2.7M previews.

[cdsacken]

Great predictions and solid info. Hoping for 6 for zilla, 2.5+ for Rocketman

[Cap]

Godzilla - Rocketman

Final Report

 

May 30, 2019 - Thursday Previews - Final Sales
Movie	Sold	Total	%
Lincoln Square 13
Godzilla	1102	2124	51.88
Rocketman	470	1276	36.83
Cinemagic Chain
Godzilla	201	1316	15.27
Rocketman	57	1160	4.91

 

 

Preview Estimates
Theater	Pike Pika	EST	JW3	EST	Aladdin	EST	Average EST
Godzilla
LS13	179%	10.2	163%	9.62	132%	9.24	9.69
SMCM	127%	7.24	108%	6.3	166%	11.92	8.49
Rocketman
LS13	77%	4.39	70%	4.13	56%	3.92	4.14
SMCM	36%	2.05	31%	1.8	47%	3.29	2.38

 

• I think Aladdin is the best Comp for Godzilla due to both having IMAX screens.  I think John Wick 3 is the best Comp for Rocketman due to their ratings.  Pika Pika is included because, one, I'm OCD, and two, like Godzilla it started at 4PM.
   
• Using just Aladdin, I think 10.5 for Godzilla.
   
• Rocketman previews sold terribly at SMCM.  I would trust LS13 more, and say 4.15M for Rocketman
   
• Ma did not have previews at EITHER theater.  Shady.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

 Just as I said earlier. Very strong in Lincoln Square and Metreon 16 iMax.

 

1030PM iMax show in Metreon is 60% sold. I am thinking it will be around 90% by show time.

 

AMC Mercado in Bay area. Dolby at 1030PM is like 90% sold.

 

Strong showing in premium formats in big cities. Alamo Drafthouse shows are super busy as well.

Edited May 31, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Cap]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

 Just as I said earlier. Very strong in Lincoln Square and Metreon 16 iMax.

There's no doubt the that IMAX screen's carrying Godzilla on its back.  1023 tickets of 1102 sold were for IMAX.  

[Cookson]

6 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

There's no doubt the that IMAX screen's carrying Godzilla on its back.  1023 tickets of 1102 sold were for IMAX.  

Some good stuff! Like it’s been said before, desperately need positive WOM to come out of these screenings to help push the weekend.

[Porthos]

-board freaked out on me while attempting to edit something-

-nothing to see here-

-move along, move along now-

Edited May 31, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Some good stuff! Like it’s been said before, desperately need positive WOM to come out of these screenings to help push the weekend.

 

Current RT Audience Score:

 

Positive 89% |  4.42/10  | 742 ratings so far

 

====

 

It's the most positive of the fanbase, presumably, but it might be the start of good WOM.  Just have to see how it all turns out.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Porthos

[Cookson]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Some good stuff. Some of that is definitely fans, but hey they deserve to vote too! 

[Cookson]

I know there’s a high chance of the Monsterverse ending after Godzilla vs Kong, but I’m a fan that thinks about the future of the franchise. We need this film and GvsKong to come out as strong as possible so that Toho AND future Hollywood studios aren’t afraid to make these movies in the future. I think Toho has something brewing regardless though.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-29 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	31.064%	19958	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	17.220%	11063	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	10.389%	6675	Rocketman
4	09.263%	5951	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
5	06.129%	3938	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
6	03.787%	2433	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
7	03.603%	2315	Booksmart
8	03.426%	2201	Ma (2019)
9	02.920%	1876	Toy Story 4 [combined]
10	02.662%	1710	Brightburn
11	01.086%	698	Dark Phoenix [combined]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-30 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	28.667%	20381	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2	21.601%	15358	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	16.295%	11585	Rocketman
4	08.730%	6207	Ma (2019)
5	05.947%	4228	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	04.315%	3068	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	02.751%	1956	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.470%	1756	Booksmart
9	01.485%	1056	Brightburn
10	01.384%	984	Toy Story 4 [combined]
11	01.015%	722	Dark Phoenix [combined]

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	11186	12201	8.32%

 

Number of Showings Added Today:     2

Number of Seats Added Today:        630

Total Seats Sold Today:                    118

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be family friendly films such as Aladdin and Detective Pikachu .  I will also be using Fallen Kingdom and KotM as comps due to the walkup friendly nature of their genres.  I may drop them if I feel they are not working as comps.

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.1598x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after three days of pre-sales. 

2.3387x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after three days of pre-sales.

2.7285x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after three days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

Also, some theaters sold tickets for a couple of days for KotM before being officially announced for sale.

 

Day 3:

Pika         33 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |     7765/8009 seats left    |  3.05% sold]

Aladdin    30 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     8969/9403 seats left    |  4.62% sold]

KotM        38 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/57 showings   |     7582/7954 seats left    |  4.68% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.1274x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after three days of pre-sales.       

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 3:

JW2               96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |  9242/10113 seats left  |  8.61% sold]

TS4 (JW)      116 tickets sold [0 sellouts/89 showings |  9554/10536 seats left   |  9.32% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-32 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	2057	2339*	12.06%

*NOTE:  One theater adjusted the seats available for one of their showings downward by three.

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sun:                11

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Sun 6/2

Edited June 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

For the third straight day locally, TS4 outsold JW:FK by around the same percentage.  Akshually, a little better percentage wise.

 

                        Best imagined in Walter White voice, naturally

 

=====

 

The way it's following JW:FK through the first three days is actually kinda uncanny.  Really interested to see when/if it breaks from the pattern and how the slow period of it will play out.  That there is only 21 days left before opening night is gonna help compact things, I think.  Much like a recent film, come to think of it.  If on a much smaller scale.

[Eric the Minion]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

For the third straight day locally, TS4 outsold JW:FK by around the same percentage.  Akshually, a little better percentage wise.

 

=====

 

The way it's following JW:FK through the first three days is actually kinda uncanny.  Really interested to see when/if it breaks from the pattern and how the slow period of it will play out.  That there is only 21 days left before opening night is gonna help compact things, I think.  Much like a recent film, come to think of it.  If on a much smaller scale.

Using the current FK comp you got, that would translate to...17.2M in previews. Using Incredibles 2's IM, that would roughly translate to about 170M. #NotARecord

[Litio]

I did some comps and I seeing ~$6m for Godzilla, ~$2m for Rocketman and ~$1.5m for Ma of previews based on fandango sales for thursday. My table is getting completely messed up when I try to paste here.

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using the current FK comp you got, that would translate to...17.2M in previews. Using Incredibles 2's IM, that would roughly translate to about 170M. #NotARecord

And 500+ DOM. Rough life for TS4

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Litio said:

I did some comps and I seeing ~$6m for Godzilla, ~$2m for Rocketman and ~$1.5m for Ma of previews based on fandango sales for thursday. My table is getting completely messed up when I try to paste here.

Same, but I am adjusting up to 6.5 due to its strength in IMAX

[TwoMisfits]

So, it will be interesting watching the rottentomatoes audience reviews and seeing if they are any less worthless than before for fan base movies.  Before, you had trolls unfairly downvoting movies...but now, you may have the fans (who are motivated enough to buy the tickets and actually do the work to put in a score) skying the movie reviews.

 

I mean, it's not that I don't believe them, but I am struggling to think that 2 large fan base movies are now both 90% for audience thoughts in 2 weeks...although since audience allows a "fresh" for anything 3.5 stars and above...so you can't really see if the fans are uber-happy or just thankful their movie got made...

 

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Alli]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, it will be interesting watching the rottentomatoes audience reviews and seeing if they are any less worthless than before for fan base movies.  Before, you had trolls unfairly downvoting movies...but now, you may have the fans (who are motivated enough to buy the tickets and actually do the work to put in a score) skying the movie reviews.

 

I mean, it's not that I don't believe them, but I am struggling to think that 2 large fan base movies are now both 90% for audience thoughts in 2 weeks...although since audience allows a "fresh" for anything 3.5 stars and above...so you can't really see if the fans are uber-happy or just thankful their movie got made...

 

 

RT is fast becoming a fanboys club. its ratings from audience are irrelevant...like the Cinemascore