The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

30 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

🥰🥰

 

-

 

On Mobile so can’t format everything properly. 😒

 

Me: Says I trust LS13 more for comps than the local

Hours latter: local nails the Rocketman comp

Me, in Hulk Voice: I consider this a win!

 

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by captainwondyful

[keysersoze123]

Its after 1PM EST and daily PS breakdown for openers. Super impressive for Rocketman.

 

25998	2019-05-30	THU	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
21679	2019-05-31	FRI	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
11640	2019-06-01	SAT	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
4733	2019-06-02	SUN	Godzilla: King of the Monsters

6904	2019-05-30	THU	Rocketman
14256	2019-05-31	FRI	Rocketman
8022	2019-06-01	SAT	Rocketman
3283	2019-06-02	SUN	Rocketman

 

4907	2019-05-30	THU	Ma
5992	2019-05-31	FRI	Ma
1734	2019-06-01	SAT	Ma
565	2019-06-02	SUN	Ma

[McClintonforThree]

So considering this will almost certainly have better WOM and a better multiplier than Godzilla 2014, can we assume 63 million is the absolute floor for KOTM?

[xiazhi]

2 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

So considering this will almost certainly have better WOM and a better multiplier than Godzilla 2014, can we assume 63 million is the absolute floor for KOTM?

Weren't previews much smaller back in 2014?

[FlashMaster659]

Missed it but what was TS4's day 3 Fandango number?

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

So considering this will almost certainly have better WOM and a better multiplier than Godzilla 2014, can we assume 63 million is the absolute floor for KOTM?

NO. this opened at 4PM vs 8PM for zilla 14. Cannot compare. It will have worse PS to OW multi than Zilla 14. the current Pulse sales are reflecting that as well. Just see my other post in this page.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

10 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Weren't previews much smaller back in 2014?

Yes, but higher than KSI. G14 had 9.3 while KSI had 3.7. Anyhow, he’s talking about in the long term since he’s saying about the WOM

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

imperssive still doesnt change much i would say, however i hope it does make 2 billion, anyway want far from home to hit 1+ billion first

Indeed. 2b would be amazing. That's near absolute best case scenario.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Missed it but what was TS4's day 3 Fandango number?

Not sure. Current 24 hour rollover is 860 ( including 31 fan screening sales). I would say it should have been 900-1000. yesterday evening it was around 1000.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

16 minutes ago, McClintonforThree said:

So considering this will almost certainly have better WOM and a better multiplier than Godzilla 2014, can we assume 63 million is the absolute floor for KOTM?

63 million as the floor? Nah. In fact I think it’s probable it will land there. 

Edited May 31, 2019 by Hokkaido MUTO

[DAJK]

Not going to post comps until later tonight when shows have already started, but a quick look at Victoria shows Rocketman playing strong throughout the day, with matinee and evening shows relatively busy so far.

Godzilla looks empty for matinees, but its early and late evenings seem stronger. But walk-ups for the morning shows were big for both movies, so hopefully the actual numbers go up from whatever deadline gives us in a few hours. 

[Eric is Quiet]

I've got a couple hours to kill before a meeting later today, so...

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Secret Life of Pets 2	200	386	505	450
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Dark Phoenix	427	553	684	700
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Men in Black		13	479	171
		17 days	16 days	15 days
Toy Story 4		2,996	1,744	940
		24 days	23 days	22 days
Spider-Man FFH	249	331	417	388
	36 days	35 days	34 days	33 days

 

Pets 2

Past 7 Days (14-8)

75% of Grinch (50.9M)

233% of Hotel 3 (103M)

 

Day 25-8

74% of Grinch (50.3M)

236% of Hotel 3 (104.2M)

 

Dark Phoenix

Past 7 Days (14-8)

27% of Venom (21.7M)

73% of Glass (29.4M using 3-Day, 33.9M using 4-Day)

64% of Shazam (34.4M)

 

Day 23-9

75% of Shazam (40.4M)

 

With these weak presales and a low TC estimate, we could be in for something ugly.

 

Men in Black
First two days of presales (ignoring the 13 tickets sold on Tuesday)

31% of Detective Pikachu (16.9M)

43% of Shazam! (22.9M)

37% of Aquaman (25.3M)

 

Day 16-15

27% of Aquaman (18.1M)

78% of Dumbo (35.9M)

72% of Dragon 3 (39.4M)

126% of Shazam (67.4M)

217% of Detective Pikachu (118.2M) (Endgame deflation occurred at that time)

 

The second set would be...okay I guess? But the first one...oh dear.

 

Toy Story

First 3 Days

231% of Detective Pikachu (125.4M)

298% of Dumbo (137.2M)

316% of Shazam (169.2M)

272% of Aladdin (249.3M 3-Day, 318.2M 4-Day)

145% of Incredibles 2 (264.2M)

 

Day 24-22

135% of Captain Marvel (206.6M)

338% of Aladdin (309.7M 3-Day, 395.4M 4-Day)

363% of Incredibles 2 (663.9M)

 

@FlashMaster659 You wanted Toy Story 4 Fandango #s, you get #s.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

298% of Dumbo (137.2M)

316% of Shazam (169.2M)

 

Somewhere in between these 2 is where I believe TS4 will end up. 

[keysersoze123]

Awesome stuff @CoolEric258 Any comparisons for Spidey. I think Cap Marvel would be ideal.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Somewhere in between these 2 is where I believe TS4 will end up. 

I dont think either movies are good comparison. Its still I2. But your numbers is good range. Though at this point Dory is the floor for me.

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome stuff @CoolEric258 Any comparisons for Spidey. I think Cap Marvel would be ideal.

I have done Far From Home in the past, but I'm doing it like Porthos and only giving it an occasional look. It's still pretty far away, and it's Tuesday opening complicates things by a lot. I'll probably have FFH up on Sunday

[keysersoze123]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

I have done Far From Home in the past, but I'm doing it like Porthos and only giving it an occasional look. It's still pretty far away, and it's Tuesday opening complicates things by a lot. I'll probably have FFH up on Sunday

I agree. Rather than looking at day sale, may be just look at consolidated number like T-30 or something like that. Once every other week should be suffice. Thanks again for tracking this.

[cdsacken]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Somewhere in between these 2 is where I believe TS4 will end up. 

I think 169 is a good guess. 130 is way too low imo

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Prescient yet again. Actual is $6.3m 🔥

 

3 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

 

 

 

 

Congrats to all and anyone else who came close.

 

3 hours ago, Moose said:

Amazing predictions from those doing the comps.

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome job everyone acing it.

 

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Seriously this thread is full of people right on target. Frickin awesome.

To all my fellow trackers who nailed it once again:

 

 

(Our Canadian posters might actually recognize that gif )

Edited May 31, 2019 by Porthos

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

With these weak presales and a low TC estimate, we could be in for something ugly.

Where was the low TC estimate? Everywhere I'm seeing points to 4,400 which would be fantastic