The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jj99]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-02 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.796%	18041	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.135%	17540	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	15.819%	11993	Rocketman
4	08.948%	6784	Ma (2019)
5	07.906%	5994	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	05.265%	3992	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.342%	2534	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.328%	1765	Booksmart
9	01.929%	1463	Dark Phoenix [combined]
10	01.576%	1195	Brightburn

Does this indicate stronger Sunday holds?

[Hokkaido MUTO]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

This does put a smile on my face...

[Eric Prime]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Secret Life of Pets 2	200	386	505	450	378	420	1,008
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Dark Phoenix	427	553	684	700	562	701	1,389
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Men in Black		13	479	171	130	86	144
		17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Toy Story 4		2,996	1,744	940	531	406	621
		24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days
Spider-Man FFH	249	331	417	388	249	207	391
	36 days	35 days	34 days	33 days	32 days	31 days	30 days

 

Okay...

 

Pets 2

Day 11-5

75% of Grinch (50.6M)

221% of Hotel 3 (97.6M)

 

Day 18-5

73% of Grinch (49.4M)

208% of Hotel 3 (91.6M)

 

We're finally gonna have more comps to work with tonight, which will hopefully point to us whether this will be like Grinch or Hotel Transylvania

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 11-5

19% of Venom (15M)

34% of John Wick 3 (19.6M)

40% of Godzilla 2 (19.8M)

46% of Shazam (24.5M)

63% of Glass (25.3M 3-Day, 29.2M 4-Day)

 

Day 18-5

35% of Godzilla 2 (17.4M)

58% of Shazam (31.1M)

 

Tonight better impress, because the numbers right now...hoo boy.

 

Men in Black

First 5 Days (minus day 17)

34% of Detective Pikachu (18.8M)

47% of Shazam (25.2M)

40% of Aquaman (26.9M)

 

Day 16-12

17% of Aquaman (9.1M)

48% of Dragon 3 (26.7M)

63% of Dumbo (29.2M)

73% of Shazam (38.9M)

 

The good news is the first set of comps rose. The bad news is it's still not to anything respectable.

 

Toy Story

First 6 Days

221% of Detective Pikachu (120.3M)

266% of Dumbo (122.1M)

288% of Shazam (154.4M)

105% of Incredibles 2 (192.5M)

 

Day 24-19

90% of Captain Marvel (138M)

265% of Incredibles 2 (484.7M)

 

Still going strong. Maybe not 200M strong, but still strong.

 

Far From Home

Day 36-30

23% of Captain Marvel (35M)

 

This shouldn't make people push the panic button just yet, but the film hasn't really picked up in the same way Captain Marvel did at the same point in time. Of course this has a different release strategy, and it's still a month away, but there could be room for concern.

[john2000]

50 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Secret Life of Pets 2	200	386	505	450	378	420	1,008
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Dark Phoenix	427	553	684	700	562	701	1,389
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days
Men in Black		13	479	171	130	86	144
		17 days	16 days	15 days	14 days	13 days	12 days
Toy Story 4		2,996	1,744	940	531	406	621
		24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days	20 days	19 days
Spider-Man FFH	249	331	417	388	249	207	391
	36 days	35 days	34 days	33 days	32 days	31 days	30 days

 

Okay...

 

Pets 2

Day 11-5

75% of Grinch (50.6M)

221% of Hotel 3 (97.6M)

 

Day 18-5

73% of Grinch (49.4M)

208% of Hotel 3 (91.6M)

 

We're finally gonna have more comps to work with tonight, which will hopefully point to us whether this will be like Grinch or Hotel Transylvania

 

Dark Phoenix

Day 11-5

19% of Venom (15M)

34% of John Wick 3 (19.6M)

40% of Godzilla 2 (19.8M)

46% of Shazam (24.5M)

63% of Glass (25.3M 3-Day, 29.2M 4-Day)

 

Day 18-5

35% of Godzilla 2 (17.4M)

58% of Shazam (31.1M)

 

Tonight better impress, because the numbers right now...hoo boy.

 

Men in Black

First 5 Days (minus day 17)

34% of Detective Pikachu (18.8M)

47% of Shazam (25.2M)

40% of Aquaman (26.9M)

 

Day 16-12

17% of Aquaman (9.1M)

48% of Dragon 3 (26.7M)

63% of Dumbo (29.2M)

73% of Shazam (38.9M)

 

The good news is the first set of comps rose. The bad news is it's still not to anything respectable.

 

Toy Story

First 6 Days

221% of Detective Pikachu (120.3M)

266% of Dumbo (122.1M)

288% of Shazam (154.4M)

105% of Incredibles 2 (192.5M)

 

Day 24-19

90% of Captain Marvel (138M)

265% of Incredibles 2 (484.7M)

 

Still going strong. Maybe not 200M strong, but still strong.

 

Far From Home

Day 36-30

23% of Captain Marvel (35M)

 

This shouldn't make people push the panic button just yet, but the film hasn't really picked up in the same way Captain Marvel did at the same point in time. Of course this has a different release strategy, and it's still a month away, but there could be room for concern.

first, i wouldnt expect the pre sales for toy story 4 to point to a 200 ow, maybe it wont hit 200, but we cant know as even incredibles 2 pre sales didnt indicate a 180 ow, as for spiderman its not a normal 3 day weeekend, we are talking about a 6 day weekend, so while good , i would say that a comparison with a 3day opener is useless, plus the marketing hasnt really begin, and at the same time whit captain marvel pre sales, it was the first big blockbuster of 2019, while there are still a lot of movies to open before spiderman, so really the attention is not that big for spiderman, while for captain marvel it was bc it was the first big blockbuster of this year

 

 

PS good breakdown though, and one more thing every movie has a room for concern when it comes to pre sales

Edited June 3, 2019 by john2000

[Tinalera]

Silvercity london june 6

 

Dark Phoenix 

IMAX fan event
615 48/323
10pm 10/323

 

Westmount 

VIP
615 17/63  
1000 3/63

Secret life of pets 2

 

Silvercity london 
Recliner 3d
715 14/111
930 7/111

Westmount

615 17/59
930 0/59

[Eric Prime]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

first, i wouldnt expect the pre sales for toy story 4 to point to a 200 ow, maybe it wont hit 200, but we cant know as even incredibles 2 pre sales didnt indicate a 180 ow, as for spiderman its not a normal 3 day weeekend, we are talking about a 6 day weekend, so while good , i would say that a comparison with a 3day opener is useless, plus the marketing hasnt really begin, and at the same time whit captain marvel pre sales, it was the first big blockbuster of 2019, while there are still a lot of movies to open before spiderman, so really the attention is not that big for spiderman, while for captain marvel it was bc it was the first big blockbuster of this year

 

 

PS could breakdown though, and one more thing every movie has a room for concern when it comes to pre sales

[Menor the Destroyer]

So akvalley's report page is updated for this week but instead of adding Dark Phoenix and Pets 2 it added TS4 and Men in Black...huh. TS4 looks like it will pull an I2 and be quite preview-heavy for animation.

[john2000]

24 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

did i say something wrong ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

44 minutes ago, john2000 said:

first, i wouldnt expect the pre sales for toy story 4 to point to a 200 ow, maybe it wont hit 200, but we cant know as even incredibles 2 pre sales didnt indicate a 180 ow, as for spiderman its not a normal 3 day weeekend, we are talking about a 6 day weekend, so while good , i would say that a comparison with a 3day opener is useless, plus the marketing hasnt really begin, and at the same time whit captain marvel pre sales, it was the first big blockbuster of 2019, while there are still a lot of movies to open before spiderman, so really the attention is not that big for spiderman, while for captain marvel it was bc it was the first big blockbuster of this year

 

 

PS good breakdown though, and one more thing every movie has a room for concern when it comes to pre sales

I don't get why there's been so little marketing for Spider-man. At this point in release was when a lot of TV spots started getting released for CM, starting with the Super Bowl spot which kicked off a big bump in presales. I haven't seen the same for FFH.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Sony will ramp up Spidey marketing after MIB releases.

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't get why there's been so little marketing for Spider-man. At this point in release was when a lot of TV spots started getting released for CM, starting with the Super Bowl spot which kicked off a big bump in presales. I haven't seen the same for FFH.

Partially could be release schedule as Sony is busy with MIB and Disney with TS4.

 

But probably the biggest thing is that this is not released by Disney. Sony is doing the marketing for this which would explain why the run-up is different.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Stewart said:

Partially could be release schedule as Sony is busy with MIB and Disney with TS4.

 

But probably the biggest thing is that this is not released by Disney. Sony is doing the marketing for this which would explain why the run-up is different.

Keep forgetting about MIB oops. That would explain Sony's behavior

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, Menor said:

So akvalley's report page is updated for this week but instead of adding Dark Phoenix and Pets 2 it added TS4 and Men in Black...huh. TS4 looks like it will pull an I2 and be quite preview-heavy for animation.

Idk about TS4, yes the fanbase is there and does have a heavy share of adults but I2 played more like a CBM than animation and will likely slew older as TS4 is rated G. My guess is around what Aladdin did (12x-13x) previews to OW.

[Cap]

I'm not concerned Spidey's behind Carol.

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

So akvalley's report page is updated for this week but instead of adding Dark Phoenix and Pets 2 it added TS4 and Men in Black...huh. TS4 looks like it will pull an I2 and be quite preview-heavy for animation.

if you are talking based on below, its too early to make a call. Families dont book weeks before release. If the PS remain thursday heavy on the monday of the week of the release I would be concerned. For now its no where similar to Zilla.

 

That said I am glad we are able to see daily break down of PS so early in the release.

 

 

2321	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story 4
1810	2019-06-21	FRI	Toy Story 4
1622	2019-06-22	SAT	Toy Story 4
797	2019-06-23	SUN	Toy Story 4
90	2019-06-24	MON	Toy Story 4
542	2019-06-25	TUE	Toy Story 4
33	2019-06-26	WED	Toy Story 4
14	2019-06-27	THU	Toy Story 4
17	2019-06-28	FRI	Toy Story 4
16	2019-06-29	SAT	Toy Story 4
16	2019-06-30	SUN	Toy Story 4
3	2019-07-01	MON	Toy Story 4
3	2019-07-02	TUE	Toy Story 4
8	2019-07-04	THU	Toy Story 4
2	2019-07-06	SAT	Toy Story 4
247	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event
18	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story Marathon

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if you are talking based on below, its too early to make a call. Families dont book weeks before release. If the PS remain thursday heavy on the monday of the week of the release I would be concerned. For now its no where similar to Zilla.

 

That said I am glad we are able to see daily break down of PS so early in the release.

 

 

2321	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story 4
1810	2019-06-21	FRI	Toy Story 4
1622	2019-06-22	SAT	Toy Story 4
797	2019-06-23	SUN	Toy Story 4
90	2019-06-24	MON	Toy Story 4
542	2019-06-25	TUE	Toy Story 4
33	2019-06-26	WED	Toy Story 4
14	2019-06-27	THU	Toy Story 4
17	2019-06-28	FRI	Toy Story 4
16	2019-06-29	SAT	Toy Story 4
16	2019-06-30	SUN	Toy Story 4
3	2019-07-01	MON	Toy Story 4
3	2019-07-02	TUE	Toy Story 4
8	2019-07-04	THU	Toy Story 4
2	2019-07-06	SAT	Toy Story 4
247	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story 4 Opening Night Fan Event
18	2019-06-20	THU	Toy Story Marathon

It is cool to see the breakdown two weeks out...that said I would rather see the breakdown for Dark Phoenix. Wonder why that isn't on here.

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

It is cool to see the breakdown two weeks out...that said I would rather see the breakdown for Dark Phoenix. Wonder why that isn't on here.

I am sure we will see DP soon(if we want to see ugly numbers). But we have not see this breakup until week of the release when daily page gives fine grained breakdown on the sales.

TS4 is so much ahead of all the movies we have seen recently except the MCU monsters. Looking at hourlies it seems to have gone up from yesterday. Its definitely building a momentum towards a big OW.

[TMP]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Men in Black

First 5 Days (minus day 17)

34% of Detective Pikachu (18.8M)

47% of Shazam (25.2M)

40% of Aquaman (26.9M)

 

Day 16-12

17% of Aquaman (9.1M)

48% of Dragon 3 (26.7M)

 63% of Dumbo (29.2M)

73% of Shazam (38.9M)

 

The good news is the first set of comps rose. The bad news is it's still not to anything respectable

In classic Hemsbomb fashion

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, jj99 said:

Does this indicate stronger Sunday holds?

You asked this after I went to bed, but I think this is a good answer:

 

13 hours ago, Menor said:

Pulse for holdovers is jerky and not super predictive of daily drops. For example movies can see 30% drop in Pulse between a Wednesday and Thursday despite only dropping 5% in actuals

===

 

The point of the Pulse chart IMO, especially the 24 hour one, is relative strength than anything else.  And even there it can be a little fuzzy.

[tonytr87]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

I don't get why there's been so little marketing for Spider-man. At this point in release was when a lot of TV spots started getting released for CM, starting with the Super Bowl spot which kicked off a big bump in presales. I haven't seen the same for FFH.

 

Spider-man is everywhere and it's not out till July. They had a big push right around Endgame's release and I'm seeing food/soda tie-ins everywhere.