The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sunny Max]

FFH :- $170 M to $190 M domestic OW

Edited June 13, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Joyous Legion]

The MT tracker is pretty clearly broken right now. Hopefully it’s fixed in 7 hours, but if not I’ll just post something to the effect of “MT is broken end of day, here’s the Fandango 24 hour instead.”

[el sid]

Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

MiBI: 76/15 – yesterday it were 33/15, up 130%; Dark Phoenix had at that time 162/15, Cold Pursuit 30/15, HtTYD3 227/15, Shazam 175/15.
Shaft: 25/15 – yesterday 15/15, up 67%; John Wick 3 had at that time 252/15, again Cold Pursuit 30/15, Hellboy 27/15, What Men Want 87/15.
The Dead Don't Die: 6/15 – Overlord had at that time on Thursday 27/15.

Toy Story 4: 39/15 (I overlooked that number yesterday) – yesterday 26/15.

Child's Play: 1/15 – yesterday 3/15.

And Pulse 10:50-11:04 EST:

MiBI: 115/15 – yesterday 101/15, up only 14%; Dark Phoenix had at that time 235/15, Cold Pursuit 47/15, HtTYD3 325/15, Shazam 322/15. Terrible, just terrible. I'm sorry for the cast members who I like. Maybe the movie will have better walk ups than assumed or a last minute run for tickets but I doubt it.
Shaft: 36/15 – yesterday 18/15, up 100%; John Wick 3 had at that time 477/15, Cold Pursuit 47/15, Hellboy 62/15, What Men Want 117/15, The Upside 130/15. Yes, it jumped but still, in both countings today it looked like an 10M OW could happen. I can't believe that its OW will be this low and think that walk ups will partly compensate it. So maybe 15M?
The Dead Don't Die: 10/15 – Overlord had at that time on Thursday 50/15, would be ca. 2M OW.

Toy Story 4: 41/15 – yesterday 57/15.
Child's Play: 1/15 – yesterday 2/15.

Edited June 14, 2019 by el sid

[Menor the Destroyer]

FFH should beat the 154 million number easily. I still remember "Captain Marvel tracking for 100 million opening", "Avengers Endgame tracking for 200-250 million opening"

[TalismanRing]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Wait, where is the 30 million for MIB coming from. I think it will get about 2 million in previews. Are you all thinking a 15x internal multi are are you estimating a higher preview #?

I thought low 2s looking at my local but Fandango comps to other comedies and even movies like AM&TW and JWFK from this week look more like low 3s though. 

 

Father's Day could mean a near flat Sunday so I wouldn't be surprised with a 12-13x

 

It could open anywhere from low 20s to mid 30s. 

 

Hopefully numbers later today clear things up a bit.

[Joyous Legion]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

FFH should beat the 154 million number easily. I still remember "Captain Marvel tracking for 100 million opening", "Avengers Endgame tracking for 200-250 million opening"

Applying that 50% correction would be a nice 230M. Perfectly plausible tbh.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I thought low 2s looking at my local but Fandango comps to other comedies and even movies like AM&TW and JWFK from this week look more like low 3s though. 

 

Father's Day could mean a near flat Sunday so I wouldn't be surprised with a 12-13x

 

It could open anywhere from low 20s to mid 30s. 

 

Hopefully numbers later today clear things up a bit.

FWIW the Fandango comps I'm looking at align more with your local. AMATW and JW both had very high OW to Pulse sales ratio so I don't think they're the best comps.

[Porthos]

Latest MT.com update:

 

2019-06-13 18:00:24.565258 UTC
1	32.7%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	32.3%	Aladdin
3	16.6%	Rocketman
4	3.7%	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
5	2.8%	Toy Story 4

 

Compare/contrast the current Fandango rolling 24 hour:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-12 13:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.034%	12272	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	14.754%	9512	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3       09.488% 6117    Men in Black International [combined]
4	09.014%	5812	Dark Phoenix
5	08.456%	5452	Rocketman
6	06.851%	4418	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
7	05.332%	3438	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8	04.684%	3020	Toy Story 4 [combined]

Might just be a sample size thing at play, honestly.  With MT.com's presumably shrinking market share occasional blips like this are gonna occur.  It's the Rocketman entry which is the biggest thing sticking out, IMO.  And given how MT.com seems to oversample indie/foreign flicks, maybe Rocketman over-performing over there shouldn't be a surprise.

Edited June 13, 2019 by Porthos
decreasing market share, not size

[FlashMaster659]

We’re in need of a @Deep Wang update

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

The MT tracker is pretty clearly broken right now. Hopefully it’s fixed in 7 hours, but if not I’ll just post something to the effect of “MT is broken end of day, here’s the Fandango 24 hour instead.”

Now that I check, were you referring to akvalley's tracker of the actual movietickets.com/box-office link?  Coz I am seeing a discrepancy as I check the two.

This is what I get at akvalley:

2019-06-13 18:00:24.565258 UTC
1	32.7%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	32.3%	Aladdin
3	16.6%	Rocketman
4	3.7%	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
5	2.8%	Toy Story 4

 

This is what I have manually checking MT.com:

 

Top tickets sold in the last 24 hours on Movietickets.ca

36.4%  The Secret Life of Pets 2
28.4%  Aladdin
19.3%  Rocketman
3.4%    Toy Story 4
2.8%    John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
 

Something weird is going on at any rate.  Maybe the akvalley tracker checked it before the MT.com website actually updated?

[Joyous Legion]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Latest MT.com update:

 

2019-06-13 18:00:24.565258 UTC
1	32.7%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	32.3%	Aladdin
3	16.6%	Rocketman
4	3.7%	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
5	2.8%	Toy Story 4

 

Compare/contrast the current Fandango rolling 24 hour:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-12 13:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	19.034%	12272	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	14.754%	9512	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3       09.488% 6117    Men in Black International [combined]
4	09.014%	5812	Dark Phoenix
5	08.456%	5452	Rocketman
6	06.851%	4418	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
7	05.332%	3438	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
8	04.684%	3020	Toy Story 4 [combined]

Might just be a sample size thing at play, honestly.  With MT.com's presumably shrinking market share occasional blips like this are gonna occur.  It's the Rocketman entry which is the biggest thing sticking out, IMO.  And given how MT.com seems to oversample indie/foreign flicks, maybe Rocketman over-performing over there shouldn't be a surprise.

Based on the MT motion and comparison to Fandango from the past 60 days, I’m 100%* confident there’s some kind of error or bug going on today. 18 hours ago XDP was 90% Rocketman, and now it’s less than 10% if you take the 11AM numbers as being accurate? In a window that has 25% overlap? That’s not the sort of thing that can be explained by random variation and a somewhat smaller sample size.

 

*rounded. 99.9999

 

Edit: Saw your quote. Pretty sure ak’s 19:00 update will be the numbers currently displayed. 

Edited June 13, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now that I check, were you referring to akvalley's tracker of the actual movietickets.com/box-office link?  Coz I am seeing a discrepancy as I check the two.

This is what I get at akvalley:

2019-06-13 18:00:24.565258 UTC
1	32.7%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	32.3%	Aladdin
3	16.6%	Rocketman
4	3.7%	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
5	2.8%	Toy Story 4

 

This is what I have manually checking MT.com:

 

Top tickets sold in the last 24 hours on Movietickets.ca

36.4%  The Secret Life of Pets 2
28.4%  Aladdin
19.3%  Rocketman
3.4%    Toy Story 4
2.8%    John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
 

Something weird is going on at any rate.  Maybe the akvalley tracker checked it before the MT.com website actually updated?

That itself is not an issue. The akvalley tracker updates right on the hour while the movietickets.com/boxoffice page updates 15 minutes after. But the numbers have been extremely jerky today with movies surging and crashing. I'm pretty sure there's an error of some kind.

[Joyous Legion]

Usually the N o’clock update hits MT at around N:10, and the ak tracker at around N+1 o’clock.

Edited June 13, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Valonqar]

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

FFH should beat the 154 million number easily. I still remember "Captain Marvel tracking for 100 million opening", "Avengers Endgame tracking for 200-250 million opening"

yeah, this is a typical lowballing. it's gonna go way higher.

[RamblinRed]

Those numbers for MIB and Shaft are just depressing.

 

Looking back at last week of the thread, MIB's pulse numbers are 1/2 of what XDP was at the same time.

Looking at the Fandango MIB's numbers are 1/2 of what XDP's numbers were at the same time Wednesday, not even Thursday.

 

Shaft's numbers are almost Hellboyish. 

[FlashMaster659]

wrong thread

Edited June 13, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Sunny Max]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Those numbers for MIB and Shaft are just depressing.

 

Looking back at last week of the thread, MIB's pulse numbers are 1/2 of what XDP was at the same time.

Looking at the Fandango MIB's numbers are 1/2 of what XDP's numbers were at the same time Wednesday, not even Thursday.

 

Shaft's numbers are almost Hellboyish. 

so another flop incoming ...

[FlashMaster659]

On 6/11/2019 at 5:36 PM, FlashMaster659 said:

Men In Black: International - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

4:30 PM - 2/532

7:30 PM - 0/532

10:30 PM - 2/532

 

2D

 

4:00 PM - 0/331

7:00 PM - 0/331

10:00 PM - 0/331

 

Total

 

4/2589 (0.2%)

 

Men In Black: International - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

4:30 PM - 3/532

7:30 PM - 0/532

10:30 PM - 2/532

 

2D

 

4:00 PM - 2/331

7:00 PM - 4/331

8:00 PM NEW - 0/128

9:30 PM NEW - 0/155

10:00 PM - 0/331

11:00 PM NEW - 0/128

 

Total

 

11(+7)/3000(+411) (0.4%)

 

0.0662x as many seats sold as Dark Phoenix mid-day of previews

0.0225x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters mid-day of previews

[jj99]

Tragic. 

 

is the 30M even possible at this point.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, jj99 said:

Tragic. 

 

is the 30M even possible at this point.

I'm thinking right now it'll go for 2.5 million in previews. That makes 30 million a possibility if it does good Father's Day business.