The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jamiem]

33 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

For me the fact that 1/3 of people would prefer to see BW at home, while it's certainly the minority, 1/3 is still a decent chunk. I would have expected like maybe 10-15, 20 pushing it. But 32? Im thinking Studio execs might use (assuming the numbers pan out in reality)that thought of home stream opening as a positive thing to push for in future. To me it doesn't suggest theatres are doomed or anything, but over the next few years if (and that's a big IF) if that ratio of theatre to stream opening starts creeping and getting into 45-50 percent territory or more, I wonder what number where a disney or Universal says "yea, theatre experiences isn't giving us the roi"

 

 

The studios do seem to being pushing their family fare as being a streaming first option as people seem to be responding to it already. 

 

I'm sure this is already impacting their thinking going forward, particularly as they scale, Disney makes the most sense to use a hybrid or short window to digital but it's also in the tricky spot where it made the most box office of any studio, so they have the most to give up by lowering the amount of theatrical or theatrical exclusive product. The other streaming services lack a global footprint for the most part but they can employ the same strategy to scale up which is what HBO Max has done with their data and date.  

 

That being said TV is still the most important driver of streaming right now (and where most of the budget is) so if the studios can still make a decent amount of money theatrically and a short window to streaming, I think it will be the 45 days (or maybe even less at some point) and then straight to Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu, Paramount+ etc. then that would probably be the best course of action. I don't think movies will be as profitable but they possibly don't need to be as they may be a driver to streaming services (we saw what happened when Frozen II hit Disney+ after I think it was 5 months it drove growth and presumably usage although pandemic likely helped there as well) and so a certain amount of the budget can come from the streaming service and a certain amount from the studios and so a big blockbuster film can still be a success even if only at ~70-80% of what it would have made in 2015-2019 times. This is assuming that blockbuster releases will lead to signups and help with price hikes though and may be a tad bit optimistic. 

 

Also merchandise is another big aspect in getting more people to watch a big movie and increasing audience through streaming can do that (again more catered to Disney than the other studios though due to global scale and franchises) buts it's very difficult to know the exact impact of this without being inside one of the companies. 

 

It's all a very tricky situation and as I've said before, how a studio releases it's films in the future will depend on how these future films perform across the coming months and years i.e. premier access vs 45 day window for Disney, day and date vs 45 day window for Warner etc. For the studios it's all about making as much money as possible and while I'm sure none of the studios will completely give up theatrical, there will for sure be less emphasis on it going forward and how much attention its given will depend on performance (we are already seeing a lot more straight to streaming low budget and mid budget films from the studios) 

 

I'm still of the mindset that eventually the major studios will have 6-8 big blockbusters a year and maybe 5 or so prestige smaller films go the theatres and the rest is streaming but with the shorter windows that have come into place over the last couple of months maybe that changes things and we get the same as before the pandemic but with a quicker turnover of product. 

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	177	793	16876	4.70%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 240

Total Seats Sold Today: 92

 

Comp

0.555x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-7 Before Release (5.38M)

0.801x of Mortal Kombat T-7 Before Release (7.28M)

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	188	898	17655	5.09%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 11

Total Seats Added Today: 779

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

0.555x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (5.38M)

0.838x of Mortal Kombat T-6 Before Release (7.62M)

 

Oh hey. The MK comp increased. That's cool I guess.

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	188	10589	1.78%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 528

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	130	336	12205	2.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 1,616

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 148

 

Gotta admit, I did not expect two sellouts in one day for this movie. And while this seems exciting, IIRC, I had experiences where sellouts just disappeared, likely due to some glitch or mistake on the computer's part for a chain over the last few months. But hey, at least for right now, a sellout is a sellout.

 

Oh, and if you take out the sellouts, you would get 24 tickets. So it was just a typical day for the film.

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	73	4426	1.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	79	3837	2.06%

 

Total Shows Removed Today: 3

Total Seats Removed Today: 589

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

So one theater today just dropped their showtimes altogether. It didn't really matter since there were zero tickets sold there, and I'm assuming they're just looking to update it in the next couple days. Not much else to report here.

[Eric S'ennui]

And before anybody asks, yes I am aware In the Heights dropped tickets today. However, I'm not gonna track them at this point in time. I have three movies to track at the moment, and it takes about 2 hours to get through them all as is. Maybe when Memorial Day comes, but even then F9 and Black Widow will drop tickets any time as well. I'm just gonna play this by ear. Sorry if you guys were looking forward to that, but I have limits, especially now that I'm a working man.

[filmlover]

FWIW I've been looking at sales around here and Cruella's numbers are pretty spread out over the weekend, with Saturday looking to be the busiest (overall it's doing the kind of sales one would expect from a $20M+ opener at this point in time). Might want to keep in mind that it probably isn't going to be the type of movie with much upfront demand, especially compared to a spoiler-prone sequel like A Quiet Place 2 and also since reviews are likely going to be what makes or breaks it. 

[Legion Again]

43 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Comp

0.555x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (5.38M)

0.838x of Mortal Kombat T-6 Before Release (7.62M)

🚀🚀🚀🌙

[filmlover]

Also looking around don't know what it looks like for everyone else but around here the PLF formats are being split up next weekend with some showing A Quiet Place and others showing Cruella on their largest screens (and those with two PLF auditoriums giving a full screen to each). Guessing Disney had a contract that it would get all large formats when they originally set the movie for this date and now theaters are splitting up who gets which to please both them and Paramount.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Eric the Jigsaw Killer Please post Thursday alone numbers of AQP2.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also looking around don't know what it looks like for everyone else but around here the PLF formats are being split up next weekend with some showing A Quiet Place and others showing Cruella on their largest screens (and those with two PLF auditoriums giving a full screen to each). Guessing Disney had a contract that it would get all large formats when they originally set the movie for this date and now theaters are splitting up who gets which to please both them and Paramount.

Samesies.

 

Not even consistent by theater brand, either, so I have no idea what the machinations are.  FWIW, AQP II has the vast majority of PLFs locally, with only two theaters giving their sole PLF to Cruella (the two theaters in town with multiple PLFs are both splitting their screens).

[Porthos]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:04 PM, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	85	2631	3553	922	25.95%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	20
Total Seats Sold Today	103

 

T-7 Comp      FAIRLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	43.49		182	2120		15/119	3208/5328	39.79%		4.18m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	5	82	2454	3447	993	28.81%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	3
Total Showings Removed Today	3
Total Seats Removed Today	106
Total Net Seats Sold Today	71

NOTE: A Regal theater which was going to reopen on May 27th yanked all of its showtimes earlier today for both AQP II and Cruella and apparently might be opening on the 28th instead.  This resulted in a loss of 25 seats sold as well as 106 available seats.  If those seats are not deducted, then AQP II sold 96 tickets region wide today.  If these showings are ever re-added with the same number of tickets sold, it will be noted in a future NOTE.

 

 

T-6 Comp      FAIRLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	41.76		258	2378		20/119	2950/5328	44.63%		4.01m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

[Tinalera]

14 hours ago, Jamiem said:

I'm sure this is already impacting their thinking going forward, particularly as they scale, Disney makes the most sense to use a hybrid or short window to digital but it's also in the tricky spot where it made the most box office of any studio, so they have the most to give up by lowering the amount of theatrical or theatrical exclusive product. The other streaming services lack a global footprint for the most part but they can employ the same strategy to scale up which is what HBO Max has done with their data and date.  

 

That being said TV is still the most important driver of streaming right now (and where most of the budget is) so if the studios can still make a decent amount of money theatrically and a short window to streaming, I think it will be the 45 days (or maybe even less at some point) and then straight to Disney+, HBO Max, Hulu, Paramount+ etc. then that would probably be the best course of action. I don't think movies will be as profitable but they possibly don't need to be as they may be a driver to streaming services (we saw what happened when Frozen II hit Disney+ after I think it was 5 months it drove growth and presumably usage although pandemic likely helped there as well) and so a certain amount of the budget can come from the streaming service and a certain amount from the studios and so a big blockbuster film can still be a success even if only at ~70-80% of what it would have made in 2015-2019 times. This is assuming that blockbuster releases will lead to signups and help with price hikes though and may be a tad bit optimistic. 

 

Also merchandise is another big aspect in getting more people to watch a big movie and increasing audience through streaming can do that (again more catered to Disney than the other studios though due to global scale and franchises) buts it's very difficult to know the exact impact of this without being inside one of the companies. 

 

It's all a very tricky situation and as I've said before, how a studio releases it's films in the future will depend on how these future films perform across the coming months and years i.e. premier access vs 45 day window for Disney, day and date vs 45 day window for Warner etc. For the studios it's all about making as much money as possible and while I'm sure none of the studios will completely give up theatrical, there will for sure be less emphasis on it going forward and how much attention its given will depend on performance (we are already seeing a lot more straight to streaming low budget and mid budget films from the studios) 

 

I'm still of the mindset that eventually the major studios will have 6-8 big blockbusters a year and maybe 5 or so prestige smaller films go the theatres and the rest is streaming but with the shorter windows that have come into place over the last couple of months maybe that changes things and we get the same as before the pandemic but with a quicker turnover of product. 

I agree that I don't see them getting rid of theatre experience entirely with blockbusters being "must see" stuff, which would almost take it back to when I was young and theatres had like 1 screen then went to 4-6 screens later, smaller amount of product. I do wonder if we will in turn see theatres basically remodel (esp the huge multi screen ones) and go back to a smaller amount of screens if there is smaller amount of product coming out. 

 

It will be interesting to see when (or if) they bounce back to pre covid sizes. I think the quicker turn around time will certainly divide a bit more people into the "see it theatres vs wait for streaming" crowds. 

 

It really is I think a significant moment in theatre/home viewing history right now and where it goes when all is said and done. 

[Eric S'ennui]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Eric the Jigsaw Killer Please post Thursday alone numbers of AQP2.

374 tickets. Using the usual comps, that's 0.231x of GvK's Wednesday (2.24M) and 0.349x of MK's Friday (3.17M). Don't think it really changes things at the moment, but if that's what you want.

[john2000]

for reference , ( if it even matters to you) the first movie had 4,3 mill previews) and then x11,6 or so after that for a 50 3day , now this movie will release on memorial day weekend

Edited May 22, 2021 by john2000

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

374 tickets. Using the usual comps, that's 0.231x of GvK's Wednesday (2.24M) and 0.349x of MK's Friday (3.17M). Don't think it really changes things at the moment, but if that's what you want.

2-3M Thursday is probably better judge than 7.6M Thu+Fri.

 

2-3M preview probably mean ~10-15M OD. With ramp up in pre-sales, that shall increase.

[Legion Again]

Thinking 3*11 3-day is pretty reasonable at this point. Would likely take the over if pressed. That would be quite fine.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Thinking 3*11 3-day is pretty reasonable at this point. Would likely take the over if pressed. That would be quite fine.

i am personally more intrested at how cruella will do, but yeah that would be great for aqp2 imo

[Eric S'ennui]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2-3M Thursday is probably better judge than 7.6M Thu+Fri.

 

2-3M preview probably mean ~10-15M OD. With ramp up in pre-sales, that shall increase.

Fair enough I suppose. It's just that the trades haven't been reporting preview numbers lately (I think Wrath of Man is the only one this year so far), and while they will probably do it for Quiet Place, better safe than sorry. I'll probably go back to Thursday previews when things fully go back to normal and previews are reported regularly on Friday morning

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Fair enough I suppose. It's just that the trades haven't been reporting preview numbers lately (I think Wrath of Man is the only one this year so far), and while they will probably do it for Quiet Place, better safe than sorry. I'll probably go back to Thursday previews when things fully go back to normal and previews are reported regularly on Friday morning

to be honest i dont remember any  movie doing previews lately to begin with but maybe i am wrong

[Eric S'ennui]

On 5/21/2021 at 11:34 PM, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	188	898	17655	5.09%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 11

Total Seats Added Today: 779

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

0.555x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-6 Before Release (5.38M)

0.838x of Mortal Kombat T-6 Before Release (7.62M)

 

Oh hey. The MK comp increased. That's cool I guess.

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	188	1031	17655	5.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp

0.593x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-5 Before Release (5.76M)

0.863x of Mortal Kombat T-5 Before Release (7.85M)