The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

This is happening in most of Europe, including here. The interest simply isn't there anymore.

Dude, Europe has barely opened lol. Tenet's performance in Europe also says otherwise (it performed along the lines of an average Nolan original film there).

[ThomasNicole]

The theaters still didn't really come back, not a single movie did what it could reach and honestly it's hard to tell why.

 

After months without social contact people can be more interested right now on more personal type of programs than go to see a movie.

 

Maybe the fact that most of the movies that will come out this year will be available at the same time or pretty soon on some platform are diluting the interest in some cases.

 

Could be due to economic reasons, we're not exactly on a great time, lots of people maybe don't have the same money now that they have in 2019 to spend seeing lots of movies.

 

The instability of the pandemic maybe teached people that is better not making plans way before so the presales loose strength.

 

And sadly, there's the possibility that people just lost their interest in going to a theater unless it's a truly big movie, like GvK. Yes, this movie breakout compared to the others, but it's also the first big movie available wide in months, which could helped it, and the buzz are so massive, in normal times it could have a $ 350M gross but right now it's fighting for only $ 100M. Maybe Hollywood will need to rebuild the "moviegoing culture" with the audiences, we have to wait and see.

 

The answer for the low numbers in general maybe is a mix of all these possibilities, but we're still only in May tho, it's kinda unfair to expect things to be close to normal so soon, globally especially which honestly, things won't be normal before 2022.

[charlie Jatinder]

Its not COVID. 2020 slate was shit. Remember I had club of 2020 being worst year in last 4 decades. Well, it turned out even worse for COVID but slate still exist.

 

Dare I say films are doing may be same as they would have done due to low competition extending legs. Ofc digitally being out is hurdle for the films that took it.

 

 

 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Lots more discussion of AQP2 in my social circles than any movie since the pandemic started. Anecdotal obviously but Confidence is rising especially with case counts dropping down and down. 

[lorddemaxus]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

Now family films are notorious for being walkup driven, so I won't even bother comping it against GvK.  Even so, it's got its work cut out for it.

I honestly am not sure whether it would even play out similarly to a family film. It's obviously not going for the same crowd as GvK, but it's probably going for an older crowd than the typical Disney remake. I really don't see families finding much appeal in a PG-13 2 hr long movie about a person who wants to skin dogs. It's probably leaning more towards teenage/YA female demo and I think that would make the movie a lot less walk-up driven than other family films.

 

[filmlover]

I highly doubt Disney ever expected Cruella to compete with their biggest remakes/re-imaginings considering the concept - the origin story of a dog-hating fashion designer from London - just never called for the kind of budget or spectacle that, say, Maleficent did. Unless Stone's salary really ballooned the budget, it seems unlikely they spent even close to $100M+ making it.

 

They chose this date originally cause they were likely aiming for female-driven, non-CGI summer counterprogramming against the splashy tentpoles (that is, the ones now delayed like Matrix and Jurassic World). Tomorrowland still pulled a $40M+ 4-day opening despite mediocre reviews, an overly vague marketing campaign, and an unclear target audience, so I'm guessing in normal times just the concept alone (Emma Stone as an iconic Disney villain) would've resulted in a $50M+ 4-day opening vs. whatever it makes now + the added boost it'll get from being on D+ at the same time.

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	172	638	16636	3.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 10

Total Seats Added Today: 1,507

Total Seats Sold Today: 65

 

Comp

0.521x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-9 Before Release (5.06M)

0.898x of Mortal Kombat T-9 Before Release (8.17M)

 

Yep. Another bad day in an endless line of bad days. You would think the reviews dropping would give it...a boost, but nah. Really sad honestly. Gonna lead to a bad weekend, that'll soon lead to a bad summer. Who knows? The rest of the year will probably be bad too. Oh well.

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	172	701	16636	4.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

0.540x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-8 Before Release (5.24M)

0.866x of Mortal Kombat T-8 Before Release (7.88M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	108	128	9853	1.30%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 22

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,999

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Horrific stuff. Shaping up to be yet another misfire. Oh well.

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	162	10061	1.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Sold Today: 208

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

[Eric Loves Rey]

23 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	55	4426	1.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Yep. Gonna be a loooooooooooooooooooong summer. Oh well.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	62	4426	1.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

[titanic2187]

What the hell are all these shit? 

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

What the hell are all these shit? 

Assuming you meant "why" heh.

 

I think what many here are overlooking more than anything else is this: the aftermath of COVID is going to linger for a while. Even with things starting to return to normal, a good portion of the country being unemployed for an extended period of time for the past year means that a lot of people simply just don't have the funds for anything that falls under the "entertainment" column right now. If the Summer Movie Season 2021 (such as it is) ends up coming well below the current in-check expectations we can easily attribute it to that.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 hours ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	172	701	16636	4.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

0.540x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-8 Before Release (5.24M)

0.866x of Mortal Kombat T-8 Before Release (7.88M)

is thurs preview show count not of normal size yet?

 

I see 69 shows on Fandago for Thurs in Philly and 136 for Fri.  Interested in how Thursday alone is selling because Friday, is well esentially a day later. If Thurs alone is selling $2-3M in Philly comp of GVK, I think that would be pretty good.

 

@Eric the Jigsaw Killer mentioning. Please mention Thurs sales separately for tomorrow update if you can.

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	86	2823	3573	750	20.99%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	444
Total Seats Sold Today	79

 

T-9 Comp      FAIRLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	45.07		249	1664		11/101	2538/4202	39.60%		4.33m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	86	2754	3573	819	22.92%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	69

 

T-8 Comp      FAIRLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	42.26		274	1938		14/115	2846/4784	40.51%		4.06m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

[titanic2187]

IndieWire prediction 

AQP2: 40m 4 days

Cruella: 20m-30m 4 days

 

[el sid]

I ran out of likes before noon and could not even finish this thread (will continue later). I see I have to renew my copper account .

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 46 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 6 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 93 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for June 4: 181.
Up 46%. Not bad but still needs to more than double this number within the next 5 days to track AQP II. Strange, a significant jump in LA but nothing in San Francisco (maybe people see that more than enough seats are still available and decide later).

AQP II, previews on Thursday, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 109 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 42 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 105 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 219 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters till today for May 27: 495.

So AQP II is now at 25% of the number that It 2 had 6 days before it was released. Not a big jump till today, 23%. OTOH 495 sold tickets are already 143% of the sales (345 tickets) that The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) had on the Monday of its release week. Maybe It 2 is just an unfriendly comparison.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, el sid said:

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters till today for May 27: 495.

So AQP II is now at 25% of the number that It 2 had 6 days before it was released.

There's one/two more day to go depending on how you counting 6 days. Should be around 30% at same time, which will translate to $3M. That's quite solid considering how IT2 would have much more pre-sales as it was near $100M opener.

 

I don't get the gloom around numbers. $3.5-4M Thursday will be pretty solid start.

[titanic2187]

On 5/18/2021 at 4:14 AM, xiazhi said:

AQP2 may fail to open with 50m under normal circumstances. You picked the wrong movie.

Do you all have amentia or something? All media outlets peg the opening at 50m-70m (most of them had it at 60m) and the presale confirm this range is possible. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Do you all have amentia or something? All media outlets peg the opening at 50m-70m (most of them had it at 60m) and the presale confirm this range is possible. 

Just because media outlets peg a range does not mean that’s what it would really have opened at.   
 

Anyway AQP1 had an 11.7 IM, not really sure what to expect for AQP2 3-day. Sequels usually have more preview loading, but also have covid and Sun holding well thanks to Mon holiday. Maybe 3*11 or something for the 3-day? 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Just because media outlets peg a range does not mean that’s what it would really have opened at.   
 

Anyway AQP1 had an 11.7 IM, not really sure what to expect for AQP2 3-day. Sequels usually have more preview loading, but also have covid and Sun holding well thanks to Mon holiday. Maybe 3*11 or something for the 3-day? 

It is not about if AQP2 in 2020 could open at that range if nothing goes wrong. It is about how close AQP2 can do against pre-covid forecast. If AQP2 managed, somehow, to open above 45m-50m 3 days, that is sign of normalcy is possible because even AQP2 may failed to hit forecast range before covid.

 

   

[titanic2187]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

Assuming you meant "why" heh.

 

I think what many here are overlooking more than anything else is this: the aftermath of COVID is going to linger for a while. Even with things starting to return to normal, a good portion of the country being unemployed for an extended period of time for the past year means that a lot of people simply just don't have the funds for anything that falls under the "entertainment" column right now. If the Summer Movie Season 2021 (such as it is) ends up coming well below the current in-check expectations we can easily attribute it to that.

Actually the number of cases and death in USA is still not low enough, especially compared to other nation with high vaccination rate like UK and Israel. The numbers are just lower. Low and lower are two different concept. That is why there are still people worried.