The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	86	2823	3573	750	20.99%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	444
Total Seats Sold Today	79

 

T-9 Comp      FAIRLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	45.07		249	1664		11/101	2538/4202	39.60%		4.33m

NOTE: Tickets have been on sale for five days longer for AQP Part II than GvK had been on sale locally this far from their respective premieres. 

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

9

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

At T-10, AQP II - Take One sold 93 tickets locally, so still slightly off that pace with the vast majority of them being for the Wed Double Feature.  But more or less, kinda-sorta in the same ballpark.

NOTE:  The extra theater I have seat data for sold zero tickets tonight, so that's not affecting the comparison.

 

Even when adjusting for that theater I have seat data for, AQP II - Take Two has now sold more tickets than it had the last go around when things shut down (2021: 737 [T-9, adj] | 2020: 707 [T-8 final]), and that's not counting a single PWP.

 

Only one market, of course.  Other markets might not be nearly as rosy. 

 

For shits and giggles, the T-9 comp against It 2 (adj) is 737/1304 | 56.39% = 5.9m.  It 2 sold 102 tickets locally at T-9, hence the jump in comp.

 

But, don't forget, no Canada.  And other theaters may be permanently shut down.  So take that It 2 comp with a massive grain of salt, especially since we still have caps here to deal with.

 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Scoob! is quietly opening everywhere this weekend a year after its theatrical release was called off.

 

Scoob! at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

Scoob Movie Tickets and Showtimes Near Me | Regal (regmovies.com)

Scoob! Movie Tickets & Showtimes | Cinemark

[Tinalera]

On 5/18/2021 at 4:06 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

GvK is missing Canada and probably few regions of US, so that make sense.

 

I think $4M Thursday will be a good result, will probably point toward $35M plus weekend.

Re Canada (or I can only speak for Ontario), noises being made right now about "re-opening plans" and what they might entail. Our Premier also talking about camps being open in July (now maybe he was presuming, I don't know). Numbers are dropping here right now as more are vaccinated each day. Not saying they'll be open this week or even end of month or even June, but it DOES sound like we might be in the home stretch here in Ontario as far as when theatres will open again) 

[titanic2187]

 

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Re Canada (or I can only speak for Ontario), noises being made right now about "re-opening plans" and what they might entail. Our Premier also talking about camps being open in July (now maybe he was presuming, I don't know). Numbers are dropping here right now as more are vaccinated each day. Not saying they'll be open this week or even end of month or even June, but it DOES sound like we might be in the home stretch here in Ontario as far as when theatres will open again) 

Will there be any PVOD for AQP2? If not, canada may provide some small bump in the later run. 

[poweranimals]

I don't get why the box office recovery seems to have come to a halt. More people are getting vaccinated while more and more theaters are reopening. Yet, the box office just doesn't seem to recovering. GvK was a bit of an anomaly it seems but nothing else seems to be able to break out of this rut.

Edited May 19, 2021 by poweranimals

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I don't get why the box office recovery seems to have come to a halt. More people are getting vaccinated while more and more theaters are reopening. Yet, the box office just doesn't seem to recovering. GvK was a bit of an anomaly it seems but nothing else seems to be able to break out of this rut.

It's more a product issue than a marketplace/vaccination issue. When the movies aren't appealing, people don't show up no matter the conditions.

[Legion Again]

Tbh I feel like GvK, DS, MK, WoM, Spiral, AQP2, and Cruella will all do pretty close (say, 60%+ — in some cases maybe 90%+) to normalcy. But... 2020 didn’t have the most blockbustery slate to begin with, and the only big hitters to end up in 1H 2021 were GvK and F9. I do hope for some more surprises to the upside in June, but we’ll just have to have a little patience and see what we see — 2H 2021 is pretty jam packed even if it doesn’t have any surefire behemoths until Dec.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

2H 2021 is pretty jam packed 

That has its own problems though if they start to cannibalize each other.  That is, if there's no time for movies to breathe/get legs as well as the public to reset its checkbook.  Wouldn't be the first time we've seen lots of underperformance simply due to glut.  

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Even if it's waiting for the right product, I feel like if there was strong demand and excitement to go back to the movies, numbers would be better, especially for Quiet Place and Cruella. Both are from reliable genres/brands, have major stars, flashy trailers, solid buzz online, positive notices. Yet both are doing lukewarm ticket sales. Maybe both are walk-up driven and will improve by the final days. But even if you assume they would have underperformed in 2020, the barren marketplace and a supposed excitement and yearning to go back to the movies would have resulted in these movies doing better than they would have, no?

 

I know people don't like the gloomy forecasts, but I really still think there's cause for concern here that people just aren't interested in going to the movies anymore, at least in America.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

92

1594

5.77%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

58

1415

4.10%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
341	28	12133	2.81%	14	68
$150 PWPs:	4
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	7

 

Showings removed: 2

Seats removed: 695

 

GvK comp: 2.78M

A Quiet Place 2 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

93

1594

5.83%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

58

1415

4.10%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
361	20	12894	2.80%	14	73
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 761

 

GvK comp: 2.48M

[Maggie]

9 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

 

 

I know people don't like the gloomy forecasts, but I really still think there's cause for concern here that people just aren't interested in going to the movies anymore, at least in America.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Even if it's waiting for the right product, I feel like if there was strong demand and excitement to go back to the movies, numbers would be better, especially for Quiet Place and Cruella. Both are from reliable genres/brands, have major stars, flashy trailers, solid buzz online, positive notices. Yet both are doing lukewarm ticket sales. Maybe both are walk-up driven and will improve by the final days. But even if you assume they would have underperformed in 2020, the barren marketplace and a supposed excitement and yearning to go back to the movies would have resulted in these movies doing better than they would have, no?

 

I know people don't like the gloomy forecasts, but I really still think there's cause for concern here that people just aren't interested in going to the movies anymore, at least in America.

I disagree on Cruella as I think that was always DOA, no matter when it was released.  That had a giant whiff of "Whhhhhhhy" around it from what I've seen.  

 

Now it's been getting good buzz from what I can tell, so maybe in normal times it would have gotten decent legs.  On the other hand, has a lot of skepticism around it.  Not quite a Solo situation, but perhaps not that far off from it, either.

 

As for AQP II?  Well, my locals are probably coloring my feelings, but it seems... fine?  That comp against It 2 is kinda eye-opening to me, as it reminds that horror/suspense can take a while to show up.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

13

654

1.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

38

749

5.07%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
97	9	4843	2.00%	12	36
$150 PWPs:	4
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	1
Total	7

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

15

654

2.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

41

664

6.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
112	15	5759	1.94%	14	42
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 916

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That has its own problems though if they start to cannibalize each other. 

On the one hand, yes.  
 

On the other hand, I’m sure exhibition would be overjoyed at this problem — more of an issue for studios/producers hoping to get their money back from each individual title living up to potential than for locations that just want to sell a lot of total popcorn each weekend.

Edited May 19, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I disagree on Cruella as I think that was always DOA, no matter when it was released.  That had a giant whiff of "Whhhhhhhy" around it from what I've seen.  

 

 

eh...I agree it wouldn't have lit the BO on fire, but it would have done better last year in normal circumstances, than the UNDER 20M it's about to do now.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Cruella Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

15

654

2.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

41

664

6.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
112	15	5759	1.94%	14	42
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	2
Total	9

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 916

 

BTW, in case people care, Cruella ain't exactly doing well, either. On a lark, I did a check last night (so, T-9) and 169/2026 (8.34% sold).  That's +102 tickets since last Fri night, or about 25 a day. 

 

Now family films are notorious for being walkup driven, so I won't even bother comping it against GvK.  Even so, it's got its work cut out for it.

[DAJK]

Advance sales could simply be lacking because people have almost been trained over the past year to not know what to expect in 2-3 weeks time because a lot can change in the world between now and then. And they don't want to plan that far ahead to do something like go see a movie.

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Eric the Jigsaw Killer said:

Even if it's waiting for the right product, I feel like if there was strong demand and excitement to go back to the movies, numbers would be better, especially for Quiet Place and Cruella. Both are from reliable genres/brands, have major stars, flashy trailers, solid buzz online, positive notices. Yet both are doing lukewarm ticket sales. Maybe both are walk-up driven and will improve by the final days. But even if you assume they would have underperformed in 2020, the barren marketplace and a supposed excitement and yearning to go back to the movies would have resulted in these movies doing better than they would have, no?

 

I know people don't like the gloomy forecasts, but I really still think there's cause for concern here that people just aren't interested in going to the movies anymore, at least in America.

This is happening in most of Europe, including here. The interest simply isn't there anymore.

[Tinalera]

7 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Will there be any PVOD for AQP2? If not, canada may provide some small bump in the later run. 

Thats a very good question. AQP2 is on 45 days before streaming i believe, I think it will all depend on where the theatres are on the "opening" schedule of things. If they open in the 45 days there might be a bit of time for AQP2 to grab a little bit, as you say late in the run.  Also I don't know the contractual side of it, wouldn't surprise me if Cineplex has a "can't stream in Canada until 45 days from its theatre opening here" type of provision, in which case there would definitely be a boost. I'll keep an eye out as we get closer to that time (right now our lockdown "ends" on June 2, assuming it doesn't get extended or some variant).

[Tinalera]

43 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This is happening in most of Europe, including here. The interest simply isn't there anymore.

And I think is the fear that that Cinemas had-that people got VERY used to home opening/streaming and (rightly or wrongly) saying "hey its cheaper to pay 20 bucks for a premiere streaming opening and have friends over and chip in a few bucks (which is what one of my friends did for Mortal Kombat). 

 

I do think we have to see after theatres open if people will go see a blockbuster like a black widow to see if people will at least go out for that.