The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

I am going with $48M. Will be offline till evening in my timezone. Good luck y'all.

[DAJK]

Oh shit passing Endgame locally could happen.

 

Even without that comp, I would be very confident in 50+.

[charlie Jatinder]

So last two hours are pretty much where I thought they be. With new Total Seats data, now for sure know that its going around 930-950K.

[charlie Jatinder]

Also will be close but seems safe to call, 2nd biggest previews admit wise. Will be easily beating TFA which had massive 3D intake and no matinee ticketing. Without matinee ticketing we would be looking 8-10% more gross.

[Movies4Life]

Good news from Cineplex: 075cuofxc0681.png (2550×3300) (redd.it).

 

Chanma50 on Reddit summed it up in a basic manner like this: Basically, they can still sell out shows for Spider-Man: No Way Home, because other movies may be playing to near empty theaters, which offsets overall capacity. In some cases, they may have to move people around a bit, just to ensure that each auditorium isn't too packed (not sure how it works for IMAX, since each location only has one IMAX screen), but they say they're honoring all pre-purchased tickets, and nobody will get their tickets canceled or need to rebook.

[ZackM]

Update 3:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	81,256	56,730	58,935	3.9%		3:00-3:59	55,868	35,916	37,343	4.0%
4:00-4:59	62,526	34,110	37,115	8.8%		4:00-4:59	43,779	19,617	22,002	12.2%
5:00-5:59	51,655	28,036	31,946	13.9%		5:00-5:59	35,359	15,892	18,409	15.8%
6:00-6:59	66,507	48,217	51,906	7.7%		6:00-6:59	47,825	32,507	35,226	8.4%
7:00-7:59	79,105	59,410	64,162	8.0%		7:00-7:59	55,024	37,855	41,674	10.1%
8:00-8:59	57,848	39,160	44,442	13.5%		8:00-8:59	41,591	23,805	-	-%
9:00-9:59	57,495	34,614	-	-%		9:00-9:59	36,048	17,254	-	-%
10:00-10:59	65,765	44,260	-	-%		10:00-10:59	46,919	28,109	-	-%
11:00-11:59	27,556	14,329	-	-%		11:00-11:59	18,356	7,825	-	-%
12:00+	20,223	6,878	-	-%		12:00+	16,879	3,983	-	-%
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	13,158	8,994	9,287	3.3%		3:00-3:59	38,753	29,272	29,701	1.5%
4:00-4:59	9,417	4,893	5,279	7.9%		4:00-4:59	30,354	19,051	20,039	5.2%
5:00-5:59	6,995	3,820	4,280	12.0%		5:00-5:59	22,136	13,880	15,064	8.5%
6:00-6:59	10,523	7,691	8,312	8.1%		6:00-6:59	32,777	24,876	-	-%
7:00-7:59	12,391	8,990	-	-%		7:00-7:59	37,442	28,491	-	-%
8:00-8:59	7,292	4,385	-	-%		8:00-8:59	27,183	19,429	-	-%
9:00-9:59	8,236	4,553	-	-%		9:00-9:59	25,478	16,466	-	-%
10:00-10:59	11,560	7,394	-	-%		10:00-10:59	36,104	24,917	-	-%
11:00-11:59	5,611	2,277	-	-%		11:00-11:59	25,797	15,146	-	-%
12:00+	4,053	951	-	-%		12:00+	26,970	9,838	-	-%

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/15/2021 at 4:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex

T-1 days Friday(286 showings): 21811(+1690)/68398(+664) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 50.26M

Black Widow final comp: 61.77M

 

Daily pace comparison:

  Reveal hidden contents

NWH T-2: +1690, +8.40%

1.79x NTTD T-2 (+943, +29.87%)

Black Widow T-2 (+835, +21.31%)

 

T-2 days Saturday(293 showings): 15488(+1846)/67098(+4076) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 43.54M

 

T-3 days Sunday(286 showings): 4044(+656)/69294(+486) in 15 theaters

 

Just to note, Saturday didn't increase by 4K seats from 3 showings. Some of the new showings weren't returning data yesterday so I didn't get that with the seat increase yesterday.

No Way Home Megaplex

T-1 days Friday(313 showings): 26957(+2253)/71291(+2893) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 62.12M

Black Widow final comp: 76.34M

 

T-2 days Saturday(302 showings): 18770(+2654)/68620(+1522) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 52.76M

 

T-3 days Sunday(287 showings): 4774(+730)/69465(+171) in 15 theaters

 

So like I was saying earlier, I added the sellouts to the total numbers, but not to the daily increase. Probably shouldn't pay much attention to the BW comp, you can see how Premier Access hurt it. 

[keysersoze123]

so at 6PM PST its just under 884K. @ZackM you are only looking at shows for that hour right. Thinking another 30-40K at this point. So will say 915-925K finish. 

 

Thinking ~52m just based on this data. 

[ZackM]

Yes, just updating 1 hour chunks.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

so at 6PM PST its just under 884K. @ZackM you are only looking at shows for that hour right. Thinking another 30-40K at this point. So will say 915-925K finish. 

 

Thinking ~52m just based on this data. 

950K looks easy to me. There's still a lot of capacity.

Spoiler

Alpha - SM:NWH
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase	Cume	Presales %	Final %
3:00-3:59	189,035	130,912	135,266	3.33%	135,266	69.25%	71.56%
4:00-4:59	146,076	77,671	84,435	8.71%	219,701	53.17%	57.80%
5:00-5:59	116,145	61,628	69,699	13.10%	289,400	53.06%	60.01%
6:00-6:59	157,632	113,291	122,321	7.97%	411,721	71.87%	77.60%
7:00-7:59	183,962	134,746	146,826	8.96%	558,547	73.25%	79.81%
8:00-8:59	133,914	86,779	102,094	17.65%	660,640	64.80%	76.24%
9:00-9:59	127,257	72,887	89,080	22.22%	749,720	57.28%	70.00%
10:00-10:59	160,348	104,680	120,261	14.88%	869,981	65.28%	75.00%
11:00-11:59	77,320	39,577	50,258	26.99%	920,239	51.19%	65.00%
12:00+	68,125	21,650	37,469	73.07%	957,708	31.78%	55.00%

 

 

Till 6PM its actuals. Till 9PM its partial actuals.

 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

What’s the difference in how the data is interpreted? How come Charlie gets 48m from 930-950 and Keyser 52m from 915-925? Either way, these are bonkers numbers. 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

What’s the difference in how the data is interpreted? How come Charlie gets 48m from 930-950 and Keyser 52m from 915-925? Either way, these are bonkers numbers. 

There is a minor difference in our approaches.

 

Keyser primarily use ratio he think his data give of nationwide numbers.

I also used to do that, but we had some errors in summer, so I have tried to incorporate more data and based on that trying to work out nationwide numbers. Now there are some variables that have changed post CoVID and I am trying to be a bit conservative as there is still a lot of uncertain missing data.

[Danhjpn]

So it seems $50M+/- 2M

Edited December 17, 2021 by Danhjpn

[Torontofan]

Good news about cineplex...they can make some money after two years.

[Movies4Life]

5 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

So it seems $50M+/- 2M

Yep. $50M is where I think it's preview numbers will be too

[ZackM]

Update 4:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	81,256	56,730	58,935	3.9%		3:00-3:59	55,868	35,916	37,343	4.0%
4:00-4:59	62,526	34,110	37,115	8.8%		4:00-4:59	43,779	19,617	22,002	12.2%
5:00-5:59	51,655	28,036	31,946	13.9%		5:00-5:59	35,359	15,892	18,409	15.8%
6:00-6:59	66,507	48,217	51,906	7.7%		6:00-6:59	47,825	32,507	35,226	8.4%
7:00-7:59	79,105	59,410	64,162	8.0%		7:00-7:59	55,024	37,855	41,674	10.1%
8:00-8:59	57,848	39,160	44,442	13.5%		8:00-8:59	41,591	23,805	27,967	17.5%
9:00-9:59	57,495	34,614	42,312	22.2%		9:00-9:59	36,048	17,254	-	-%
10:00-10:59	65,765	44,260	-	-%		10:00-10:59	46,919	28,109	-	-%
11:00-11:59	27,556	14,329	-	-%		11:00-11:59	18,356	7,825	-	-%
12:00+	20,223	6,878	-	-%		12:00+	16,879	3,983	-	-%
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone						Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Total Seats	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	13,158	8,994	9,287	3.3%		3:00-3:59	38,753	29,272	29,701	1.5%
4:00-4:59	9,417	4,893	5,279	7.9%		4:00-4:59	30,354	19,051	20,039	5.2%
5:00-5:59	6,995	3,820	4,280	12.0%		5:00-5:59	22,136	13,880	15,064	8.5%
6:00-6:59	10,523	7,691	8,312	8.1%		6:00-6:59	32,777	24,876	26,250	5.5%
7:00-7:59	12,391	8,990	9,708	8.0%		7:00-7:59	37,442	28,491	-	-%
8:00-8:59	7,292	4,385	-	-%		8:00-8:59	27,183	19,429	-	-%
9:00-9:59	8,236	4,553	-	-%		9:00-9:59	25,478	16,466	-	-%
10:00-10:59	11,560	7,394	-	-%		10:00-10:59	36,104	24,917	-	-%
11:00-11:59	5,611	2,277	-	-%		11:00-11:59	25,797	15,146	-	-%
12:00+	4,053	951	-	-%		12:00+	26,970	9,838	-	-%

[XXR & Friends]

Just got out and this isn’t the thread for but since this thread is my main home I just wanna say…

 

This movie is gonna make mountains of fuckin’ money. The buzz in the theater was electric.

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

If we throw out SC (which I should have done a long time ago with its inflated holiday OW)

What does this have to do with anything? Not like Th or Fri were holidays. Seems like it just underindexed for you, likely random+demographic factors.

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, ZackM said:

First update:

 

Alpha - SM:NWH - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - SM:NWH - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	56,730	58,935	3.9%		3:00-3:59	35,916	37,343	4.0%
4:00-4:59	34,110	37,115	8.8%		4:00-4:59	19,617	22,002	12.2%
5:00-5:59	28,036	31,946	13.9%		5:00-5:59	15,892	18,409	15.8%
6:00-6:59	48,217	51,906	7.7%		6:00-6:59	32,507	-	-%
7:00-7:59	59,410	-	-%		7:00-7:59	37,855	-	-%
8:00-8:59	39,160	-	-%		8:00-8:59	23,805	-	-%
9:00-9:59	34,614	-	-%		9:00-9:59	17,254	-	-%
10:00-10:59	44,260	-	-%		10:00-10:59	28,109	-	-%
11:00-11:59	14,329	-	-%		11:00-11:59	7,825	-	-%
12:00+	6,878	-	-%		12:00+	3,983	-	-%
Alpha - SM:NWH - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - SM:NWH - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase		Showtimes	Presales	Final Sales	% Increase
3:00-3:59	8,994	9,287	3.3%		3:00-3:59	29,272	29,701	1.5%
4:00-4:59	4,893	5,279	7.9%		4:00-4:59	19,051	-	-%
5:00-5:59	3,820	-	-%		5:00-5:59	13,880	-	-%
6:00-6:59	7,691	-	-%		6:00-6:59	24,876	-	-%
7:00-7:59	8,990	-	-%		7:00-7:59	28,491	-	-%
8:00-8:59	4,385	-	-%		8:00-8:59	19,429	-	-%
9:00-9:59	4,553	-	-%		9:00-9:59	16,466	-	-%
10:00-10:59	7,394	-	-%		10:00-10:59	24,917	-	-%
11:00-11:59	2,277	-	-%		11:00-11:59	15,146	-	-%
12:00+	951	-	-%		12:00+	9,838	-	-%

If we don’t make this new format debut for movie doing 2.5x OW record a top 3 popular post of this thread, what are we even doing here.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

What does this have to do with anything? Not like Th or Fri were holidays. Seems like it just underindexed for you, likely random+demographic factors.

You are forgetting certain winds that blew that weekend.