The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

Just now, Firepower said:

How is John Wick 3 doing?

For the kind of movie it is, it seems to be doing fine? It's an R-Rated action movie so I imagine it would be more walk-up heavy ((Like practically every May release will be which makes tracking presales a bit difficult to gauge considering this part))

[Cappoedameron]

25 minutes ago, Stewart said:

I've got to admit, it's a real shame you don't have any comparisons. Because selling 20% of its tickets available 10 days out for a family movie sounds absolutely amazing. 

Is it good? Everybody around is telling me how DP is flopping or doing extremely poor and I'm just confused. 

 

BOP measures there box office tracking not on pre-ordering but other methods so I love that they still have a lot of faith in this. I think they're right on the money with this as well around 85/90 million like they first predicted.

[dakus]

27 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Funnily enough, one of the better presellers for Pikachu near my area is the 21+ only theater.

  

My thoughts as well, though I'm also wondering about Long Shot. Reviews are good, but political comedies are a tough sell to begin with and the Avengers albatross doesn't help.

It honestly makes sense. The movie will obviously have a large millennial audience, and that same audience doesn't want the experience of being stuck in the theatre with loud children if they can help it.

[TwoMisfits]

On 4/22/2019 at 8:45 PM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local - Cinemark with a VERY early final set for Endgame weekend...here we go - LOTS of movies split-screened:)...

 

NEW

Avengers Endgame (5.5 - 23 showings) - I'm surprised this did NOT go higher than presets

 

RETURNING

Curse of LL (1 - 5 showings)

Shazam (1 - 5 showings)

Capt Marvel (1 - 5 showings)

Dumbo/Us (1 - Dumbo gets 3 showings/Us gets 2) - surprised Dumbo stayed, but maybe that was the deal to do the set below on Penguins

Penguins/Foreign Film (1 - each get 3 showings) - Penguins lost a 1/2 screen and WAS NOT fully protected

2nd Foreign Film (1 - 4 showings) - Surprised this stayed

 

GONE

Everything else - Hellboy, Little (surprised this was dropped), Missing Link, Pet Semetary

 

There are still a few open showings possible, so maybe Endgame grabs those later...unless it goes to a newly booked foreign film for a show or two...

 

 

 

So, my 1st local - Cinemark - is set...and if you weren't a super or LL, you weren't around anymore...and if you're a new opener, you're looking to be gone in 2 weeks if the theater allocation is any indication - here's the set...

 

NEW

Longshot (1 - 5 showings - smallest theater)

The Intruder (1 - 5 showings - smallest theater)

UglyDolls (1 - 6 showings - smallest theater)

 

RETURNING

Endgame (5 screens - 20 showings - 3 3d, 17 2d) - it eventually had 24 showings last weekend (+1 from initial set), so this is the loss of 1 screen (1/2 for no early opening and a 1/2 in lost shows ) - not too bad considering:)

LL (1 screen - 6 showings)

Shazam (1 - 5 showings)

Capt Marvel (1 - 5 showings)

1 foreign film (.5 - 3 showings)

 

There is a 1/2 screen left, for evening showings on the foreign screen, that I think they will allocate the night of...

 

GONE

Dumbo, Us, Penguins, 2nd foreign film

 

It's gonna be really tight on May 10th...I figure May 17 will open back up a little with all this week's openers getting dropped, but we'll see if UglyDolls can stay in longer than Missing Link...

 

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Ledmonkey96]

The theater I work at has more showings for Endgame this weekend than last weekend.....

[Perfundle]

1 hour ago, Stewart said:

I've got to admit, it's a real shame you don't have any comparisons. Because selling 20% of its tickets available 10 days out for a family movie sounds absolutely amazing. 

Well, these are major theaters in the LA suburbs, so they're going to be some of the most frequented theaters in the country. That they're selling so well already is actually a problem, because the best seats in the best showtimes have all been taken, so there's not as much room to increase sales. Looking at akvalley's tracker, I see that Shazam sold 859 tickets 10 days out and 17154 tickets on its last day. But I don't think my theaters will be selling 6000 tickets on Detective Pikachu's last day...

[Cappoedameron]

1 hour ago, Perfundle said:

Well, these are major theaters in the LA suburbs, so they're going to be some of the most frequented theaters in the country. That they're selling so well already is actually a problem, because the best seats in the best showtimes have all been taken, so there's not as much room to increase sales. Looking at akvalley's tracker, I see that Shazam sold 859 tickets 10 days out and 17154 tickets on its last day. But I don't think my theaters will be selling 6000 tickets on Detective Pikachu's last day...

Shazam was not targeted at being a family film, given it's rating of PG-13 even though it is a family film 100%

[Eric is Quiet]

1 hour ago, Perfundle said:

Well, these are major theaters in the LA suburbs, so they're going to be some of the most frequented theaters in the country. That they're selling so well already is actually a problem, because the best seats in the best showtimes have all been taken, so there's not as much room to increase sales. Looking at akvalley's tracker, I see that Shazam sold 859 tickets 10 days out and 17154 tickets on its last day. But I don't think my theaters will be selling 6000 tickets on Detective Pikachu's last day...

So in that case, what does that mean since Aladdin has only sold 5% of tickets?

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

Is it good? Everybody around is telling me how DP is flopping or doing extremely poor and I'm just confused. 

Wick 1 (10/14): 14.4 OW/43 DOM (875k previews) [viral hit post-release]

Wick 2   (2/17): 30.4 OW/92 DOM (2.2m previews) [break out]

 

Wick 3 is not expected to have massive previews.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

Detective Pikachu is probably gonna be the biggest surprise for me at the BO (behind End Game of course). After the reactions it’s trailers got, how big the brand is and how well it’s been marketed (imo) I’m kinda surprised as to where it’s probably headed at the domestic box office. 

 

Now before anyone tells me I let my own hype get in the way, which maybe true, the way I looked at it was if unknown family films could make a killing at the box office (think SLOP, Despicable Me etc) then why couldn’t a live action movie based on Pokémon do really well too especially since the movie looked good (and not really bad) and the brand is still super popular. 

 

I dont know but it’s def been a movie that’s had me scratching my head. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Detective Pikachu is probably gonna be the biggest surprise for me at the BO

 

That a strange statement, would it be a surprise if you know it will be a surprise ?

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

That a strange statement, would it be a surprise if you know it will be a surprise ?

Yes. Because a week ago I was expecting big things for it at the BO and just before it’s about to release I don’t. 

[Cappoedameron]

14 minutes ago, Nova said:

Detective Pikachu is probably gonna be the biggest surprise for me at the BO (behind End Game of course). After the reactions it’s trailers got, how big the brand is and how well it’s been marketed (imo) I’m kinda surprised as to where it’s probably headed at the domestic box office. 

 

Who knows it may continue to surprise you hopefully in a good way instead of a bad way. Seems to me this movie is going to be massively walk up friendly.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Cappoedameron]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wick 1 (10/14): 14.4 OW/43 DOM (875k previews) [viral hit post-release]

Wick 2   (2/17): 30.4 OW/92 DOM (2.2m previews) [break out]

 

Wick 3 is not expected to have massive previews.

Can I ask you, what do you think DP in your own words. Do you agree with people saying it's flopping or that it's gonna bomb because over the past week that's all I've seen and I don't understand why. 

 

And BOP still has Pikachu having a very big opening weekend. And they don't do their tracking on pre-sales, maybe they also predict massive walk up friendly as well.

 

Edited April 30, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Nova]

Poor @Porthos who knew that a talking Pikachu with a detective hat would cause so many questions to come his way 

[Minnale101]

Capp does this in the detective pikachu thread too. 

 

He needs relax and chill. 

 

Dont try to find a narrative to fit you’re over the top prediction for movie. 

 

Use the information infront front of you and wait for the release of movie 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Can I ask you, what do you think DP in your own words. Do you agree with people saying it's flopping or that it's gonna bomb because over the past week that's all I've seen and I don't understand why. 

 

I think the lack of ramp up of pre-sales is worrying.  Not a sign of flopping.  Not a sign that it's gonna bomb.  Just 'worrying'.

 

Even for a walkup family type movie, I would expect to see the signs of it increasing.

 

That being said, as I said last night, I am seeing the signs of a pulse. If it continues that, then its prospects improve.  

 

Also we are getting anecdotal reports of relatively stronger sales for Sat.  That would bode well for a family-friendly internal multiplier.

 

I'm not going to sugarcoat this for you, Cappoedameron, there is no sign that PIka PIka is gonna break out.  Yet.

 

The "yet" isn't a sugarcoat or attempting to have it both ways.  Just that it hasn't done it yet.

 

Will it? Can't say. The interest is obv out there from social media engagement.  Just have to see when or if it actually translates to butts in the seats.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think the lack of ramp up of pre-sales is worrying.  Not a sign of flopping.  Not a sign that it's gonna bomb.  Just 'worrying'.

 

Even for a walkup family type movie, I would expect to see the signs of it increasing.

 

That being said, as I said last night, I am seeing the signs of a pulse. If it continues that, then its prospects improve.  

 

Also we are getting anecdotal reports of relatively stronger sales for Sat.  That would bode well for a family-friendly internal multiplier.

 

I'm not going to sugarcoat this for you, Cappoedameron, there is no sign that PIka PIka is gonna break out.  Yet.

 

The "yet" isn't a sugarcoat or attempting to have it both ways.  Just that it hasn't done it yet.

 

Will it? Can't say. The interest is obv out there from social media engagement.  Just have to see when or if it actually translates to butts in the seats.

One of the reasons I am being cautious here is, as @TalismanRing would point out, the refrain "it'll be walk up based" is trotted out a lot in this thread. Including by Yours Truly on one particular bomb last year.  Ahem.  

 

Now the reason it is trotted out a lot is that it is true.  It just isn't always true.  And Detective Pikachu has enough unknowns to put its 'walkup based' credentials in doubt.  It's one of the biggest wild cards to show up on the silver screen in a while and some of us, including me, just don't really know what to expect on its pre-sales. Especially with the 800 pound gorilla throwing  suitcases all across the room.

 

That more than anything is a reason for some of the equivocation, IMO.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

Porthos sensei how's John Wick and Aladdin looking so far in your opinion?

[Nova]

Just now, Porthos said:

One of the reasons I am being cautious here is, as @TalismanRing would point out, the refrain "it'll be walk up based" is trotted out a lot in this thread. Including by Yours Truly on one particular bomb last year.  Ahem.  

 

Now the reason it is trotted out a lot is that it is true.  It just isn't always true.  And Detective Pikachu has enough unknowns to put its 'walkup based' credentials in doubt.  It's one of the biggest wild cards to show up on the silver screen in a while and some of us, including me, just don't really know what to expect.

 

That more than anything is a reason for some of the equivocation, IMO.

You’re talking about the Nutcracker right?