The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BudStarr]

56 minutes ago, Nova said:

@BudStarr so would you consider the Fandango Pulse counter at this point useless until they figure out what’s going on with it? I feel like it’s breaking far too often now and hitting the cap what feels like all the time. Ever since End Game fucked it up the week of its release it’s bugged out. 

 

Like I know End Game is having a huge Sunday but like I’ve mentioned before we’ve had movies open in the range that End Game’s doing for its second weekend. I understand hitting the cap but to completely stop working so often in the last couple weeks leads me to believe that there are other issues going on with it at the moment. 

The last 2 weeks have been exceptional circumstances (I mean, 357m OW!) and I actually think the week ahead should be back to relatively normal/comparable levels. However, we have more massive films coming up this year and I don’t know what will happen then.

 

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One thing to consider is that it was probably hitting the cap a lot, especially in weekends, and we just didn't notice.  It doesn't appear to take that much to cap, since it was capping throughout this past week.

 

The only unknown thing is, really, how quickly it takes to cap in each 15 minute period.  Wouldn't be surprised one whit to see many caps pre page 937 (yes, we've gone through over 200 pages in the last month plus) if we looked at what was posted and then extrapolated the remainders.

 

Hitting that cap quickly might explain, for instance, why Captain Marvel was doing such a close percentage of Black Panther on our Pulse trackers the week of release despite being 4.5m less on previews.

 

Thanks @Porthos for saying something I’ve been meaning to post all week. I think it probably hits this cap every day, even in the most mundane weeks. As long as it’s hitting the cap in roughly the same window of time then that’s fine. The issue is whether it hits it after 3 minutes or, say, 12 minutes - that’s what skews comparisons.

 

I watched Pulse do its full cycle of 1000 each day this week at the same time (2pm EST) and monitored how long it took to hit the cap (from the time in the top left). On Monday it took 3 mins, Tuesday 4 mins, Wednesday 5 mins. Weirdly it was taking 4 mins when it ‘broke’ so not even the fastest rate that I observed. This is a pretty boring job but it might be the way to work out the percentage by which the numbers are being suppressed compared to normal levels? E.g. If 8 minutes is ‘normal’ but it’s only taking 4 minutes then we should double all the numbers.

 

By the way, it has gone off at exactly the same time these past two days (after the first 11am cycle) so I wondered whether Fandango actually switched it off themselves for some reason? Maybe pre-emptively before it broke? If it comes back at 22:00 again then it could be.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

One thing to consider is that it was probably hitting the cap a lot, especially in weekends, and we just didn't notice.  It doesn't appear to take that much to cap, since it was capping throughout this past week.

 

The only unknown thing is, really, how quickly it takes to cap in each 15 minute period.  Wouldn't be surprised one whit to see many caps pre page 937 (yes, we've gone through over 200 pages in the last month plus) if we looked at what was posted and then extrapolated the remainders.

 

Hitting that cap quickly might explain, for instance, why Captain Marvel was doing such a close percentage of Black Panther on our Pulse trackers the week of release despite being 4.5m less on previews.

I don't think that was necessarily the issue. I mean in that case you'd expect CM to be uniformly right under BP but instead it actually beat BP on some of the days, quite significantly on the Wednesday (probably due to BP Valentine's day). Most likely it was just that BP had 10 days of great presales before its release week which CM didn't have, so CM's close release week #s to BP were just because it had more good seats available. Captain Marvel's Pulse numbers for release week also had a similar correlation to @Deep Wang  data as Endgame did in the weeks before its release week (when Endgame started going crazy).

[Cooper Legion]

On 5/4/2019 at 9:07 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/4/19 (EO 2nd Sat)

1	79.4%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.4%	UglyDolls
3	4.3%	Long Shot
4	3.3%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel  

 

Nothing interesting today. Curious what day Pikachu shows up. Only need to nudge out CM, which will be doing sub .5M business daily.

17 PT 5/5/19 (EO 2nd Sun)

1	77.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.7%	UglyDolls
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.4%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel

 

Waiting for Pika, by Samuel Beckett

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/5/19 (EO 2nd Sun)

1	77.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.7%	UglyDolls
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.4%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel

 

Waiting for Pika, by Samuel Beckett

Kinda surprised it hasn't shown up considering End Game decreased by almost 2%, Long Shot decreased by .4% with the rest of the top 5 only seeing two movies increase by a combination of .4% 

[Minnale101]

It’s number 2 here. Not sure if this is correct though 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

[dakus]

7 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

It’s number 2 here. Not sure if this is correct though 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Ayyy Pulse is back up. Mostly useless for the day now, but at hopefully it'll be stable for the week

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

It’s number 2 here. Not sure if this is correct though 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

It got fixed. But once again several hours of data is gone. And this time it got fixed before the time it got fixed the last couple nights. 

 

Let us pray this is the last time it breaks. I need to be able to track films this summer and fall 

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/5/19 (EO 2nd Sun)

1	77.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	4.7%	UglyDolls
3	3.9%	Long Shot
4	3.4%	The Intruder
5	1.8%	Captain Marvel

 

Waiting for Pika, by Samuel Beckett

do you happen to know when Us showed up on MT for the first time?

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

do you happen to know when Us showed up on MT for the first time?

I wasn’t doing the Daily MT recaps then, so not off the top of my head. You could try to go digging through the thread, somebody might have posted about it (or might not, unfortunately I can’t say for sure).

Edited May 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Biggestgeekever]

26 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I wasn’t doing the Daily MT recaps then, so not off the top of my head. You could try to go digging through the thread, somebody might have posted about it (or might not, unfortunately I can’t say for sure).

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

 

This goes all the way back to Jan 22, just have to adjust for the timezone they use. Us' first appearance was Monday evening @Menor

 

2019-03-18 19:00:24.327985 UTC
1	49.2%	Captain Marvel
2	9.7%	Wonder Park
3	7.6%	Five Feet Apart
4	7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5	3.7%	Us

[Minnale101]

So detective pikachu still has 15-18 hours before it gets worrying 

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

 

This goes all the way back to Jan 22, just have to adjust for the timezone they use. Us' first appearance was Monday evening @Menor

 

2019-03-18 19:00:24.327985 UTC
1	49.2%	Captain Marvel
2	9.7%	Wonder Park
3	7.6%	Five Feet Apart
4	7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
5	3.7%	Us

Oh my goodness, I was somehow under the impression that that got wiped clean Monday like the pulse tools. Well that’s good to know 👍

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

So detective pikachu still has 15-18 hours before it gets worrying 

It's already at the top five marker over at Fandango:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-04 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	68.272%	26719	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	06.948%	2719	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
3	04.295%	1681	Long Shot
4	03.490%	1366	The Intruder (2019)
5	03.470%	1358	UglyDolls
6	02.747%	1075	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
7	01.771%	693	Captain Marvel (2019)
8	00.984%	385	The Curse of La Llorona
9	00.910%	356	Shazam!
10	00.815%	319	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

I know it's been wonky for missing the critical day time hours, not to mention the difference between Fandango and MT.com, but I'd be fairly surprised if it doesn't appear soon-ish on Monday.  

 

Won't forecast an actual time, but I'd be surprised if it didn't appear at all over there tomorrow.

[Porthos]

Also, don't forget that the rolling 24 hour tracker for Fandango resets over at akvalley in about 45 minutes or so.  So all of Monday the 24 hour tracker for Fandango will be a partial one.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's already at the top five marker over at Fandango:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-04 23:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	68.272%	26719	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	06.948%	2719	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
3	04.295%	1681	Long Shot
4	03.490%	1366	The Intruder (2019)
5	03.470%	1358	UglyDolls
6	02.747%	1075	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
7	01.771%	693	Captain Marvel (2019)
8	00.984%	385	The Curse of La Llorona
9	00.910%	356	Shazam!
10	00.815%	319	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

 

I know it's been wonky for missing the critical day time hours, not to mention the difference between Fandango and MT.com, but I'd be fairly surprised if it doesn't appear soon-ish on Monday.  

 

Won't forecast an actual time, but I'd be surprised if it didn't appear at all over there tomorrow.

Thanks. Sometimes I run out of likes and thanks for the day because I be on this site during detective pikachu 

 

if I could add thanks to all you’re posts I would. You do a fantastic job with updates 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Also, don't forget that the rolling 24 hour tracker for Fandango resets over at akvalley in about 45 minutes or so.  So all of Monday the 24 hour tracker for Fandango will be a partial one.

Let me go take a screen shot of all the movies with their incomplete data 

[Eric Prime]

Well, Puse isn't just alive, but it's kicking for some movies.

 

2019-05-05 22:00:00	1735	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	252	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-05 22:00:00	178	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	161	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	128	The Intruder (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	111	Long Shot
2019-05-05 22:00:00	66	The Curse of La Llorona
2019-05-05 22:00:00	65	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

2019-05-05 22:00:00	33	Aladdin (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	32	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-05-05 22:00:00	24	Fandango Early Access Rocketman
2019-05-05 22:00:00	24	The Hustle (2019)

2019-05-05 21:00:00	1486	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-05 21:00:00	156	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-05-05 21:00:00	152	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-05-05 21:00:00	150	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-05 21:00:00	122	Long Shot
2019-05-05 21:00:00	113	The Intruder (2019)
2019-05-05 21:00:00	63	The Curse of La Llorona
2019-05-05 21:00:00	41	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum

2019-05-05 21:00:00	25	The Hustle (2019)

2019-05-05 21:00:00	19	Aladdin (2019)

 

Is part of the reason for this jump because of it being Sunday night? Yeah. But for Pikachu and Wick, this is the highest hourly sales in a long while. Aladdin's also doing pretty alright too. Hopefully the next couple weeks Fandango gets its shit together. If this happens again, I'm flying to Beverly Hills, going to Fandango HQ, and fist fighting Erik Davis on the street.

Edited May 6, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Rorschach]

Detective Pikachu Thursday Night Previews @ Davenport 53rd and IMAX - Sunday 11:25 P.M. CST

 

3D

4:00 - 7/135

 

2D

6:45 - 53/135

9:30 - 22/135

 

82/405 (20.25% of all seats sold)

Edited May 7, 2019 by Rorschach

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

Detective Pikachu Thursday Night Previews - Sunday 11:25 P.M. CST

 

3D

4:00 - 7/135

 

2D

6:45 - 53/135

9:30 - 22/135

 

82/270 (30.37% of all seats sold)

Hard to know without context. Is this decent ?

[Rorschach]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Hard to know without context. Is this decent ?

I'm guessing more showings will be added either today or tomorrow. It seems to be doing fairly well though. Doing better than Shazam! was doing at my theater around the same timeframe.

Edited May 6, 2019 by Rorschach