The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

BOP has it at 67 for the OW rn and the three day tracking has it at 60-70. This would be way below Solo with what'll imo be way worse legs then Solo had.

Maybe I can't say for sure WW will worse. Solo was gawd awful WW

 

It literally lost money. I wonder just how much. Had to be quite bad.

Edited May 12, 2019 by cdsacken

[Mulder]

Just now, cax16 said:

Lol, I just thought it was funny my theatre didn’t have the 4pm Pikachu show, it also didn’t have one for Shazam, but does for this. 

Is it a big movie chain that's name starts with A and ends with C.  Because it seems like internal tracking for KOTM is very good at that chain.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Maybe I can't say for sure WW will worse. Solo was gawd awful WW

Oh WW Aladdin'll be way better then Solo. Thinking WW 400-520 for Aladdin. 

[cax16]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Is it a big movie chain that's name starts with A and ends with C.  Because it seems like internal tracking for KOTM is very good at that chain.

I’m Canadian, I only track Cineplex theatres. 

 

But thats why I did mention that this might be tracking higher cause even for John Wick and Aladdin they only have two showtimes each like Pikachu, Shazam and all the other movies we’re expecting to open to 50-60m 3 day. 

Edited May 12, 2019 by cax16

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, cax16 said:

I’m Canadian, I only track Cineplex theatres. 

*looks at your location*

 

Oops lmao. Huh wonder if it's tracking well for them there as well then.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

70 is decent (within tracking).

Tracking for that would be, what, 7m in previews maybe?  7.5 if it's frontloaded?

 

I suppose this might get as 'low' as an 8x, but this is still Memorial Day Weekend with an inflated Sunday.

 

That might be my personal over/under line I look at then it comes to previews,  Anything that points to under 7m is a bad sign for it.

[cdsacken]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Oh WW Aladdin'll be way better then Solo. Thinking WW 400-520 for Aladdin. 

Perfect prediction. I will be disappointed with anything less than 550 and expect to be disappointed 

[Mulder]

The one big thing with Aladdin is even with Memorial Day Weekend being only two weeks away, there's still an empty showing at my theater and two with only one ticket sold. Not even Pikachu had empty theaters at this stage in the game.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Porthos said:

Tracking for that would be, what, 7m in previews maybe?  7.5 if it's frontloaded?

 

I suppose this might get as 'low' as an 8x, but this is still Memorial Day Weekend with an inflated Sunday.

 

That might be my personal over/under line I look at then it comes to previews,  Anything that points to under 7m is a bad sign for it.

Oh God I have no idea on previews I guess I hope for good walkups. I was referring to industry tracking of 70-90. Frankly I think it's a very good chance it goes under tracking

 

[Mulder]

Not to rag on Aladdin too much because boy does this forum have too much stuff that approaches concern trolling but the other thing is, the lack of reactions and the embargo being so late means to me a lot of people on the fence won't get things to convince them and if the RT score is as bad as a lot of people are fearing that'll be erm...not good.

Edited May 12, 2019 by Mulder

[cax16]

So far at my theatre for preview night for the following movies,

 

John wick 

 

7:00pm - 18/225

10:15pm - 6/225

 

Aladdin

 

7:30 - 42/390

10:30 - 0/390

 

KOTM

 

4:40pm - 0/336

7:40pm - 3/336

10:40pm - 0/336

 

 

I’ll update more as each movie approaches.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not to rag on Aladdin too much because boy does this forum have too much stuff that approaches concern trolling but the other thing is, the lack of reactions and the embargo being so late means to me a lot of people on the fence won't get things to convince them and if the RT score is as bad as a lot of people are fearing that'll be erm...not good.

Agreed. I'm not soooooo not confident about the RT score but I will see this like I did Dumbo which flat out sucked. I pray this is good

 

[Galactic Specter]

14 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not to rag on Aladdin too much because boy does this forum have too much stuff that approaches concern trolling but the other thing is, the lack of reactions and the embargo being so late means to me a lot of people on the fence won't get things to convince them and if the RT score is as bad as a lot of people are fearing that'll be erm...not good.

It's a Disney remake, it'll probably get okay to good reviews if it's repeats all the same jokes and beats as the original like Beauty and the Beast. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Galactic Specter said:

It's a Disney remake, it'll probably get okay to good reviews if it's repeats all the same jokes and beats as the original like Beauty and the Beast. 

I meeeean-

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dumbo_2019

[Hokkaido MUTO]

Not to hate but hopefully Aladdin doesn't do to good so that uh...........

THE KING OF ALL MONSTERS CAN BE NUMBER 1 AT THE BO!

[Mulder]

Just now, Hokkaido MUTO said:

Not to hate but hopefully Aladdin doesn't do to good so that uh...........

THE KING OF ALL MONSTERS CAN BE NUMBER 1 AT THE BO!

Oh no you'll summon Alli. 

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I meeeean-

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dumbo_2019

 

Yes, that was a Disney remake that didn’t repeat the same beats as the original

[Mulder]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Yes, that was a Disney remake that didn’t repeat the same beats as the original

It did the main ones, it just fleshed out the story. Even then BATB barely eeked by and that had a way better embargo date. I don't see Aladdin above the 50s on RT judging by the early reactions already being kind of mixed and the embargo date.

[Yandereprime101189]

30 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not to rag on Aladdin too much because boy does this forum have too much stuff that approaches concern trolling but the other thing is, the lack of reactions and the embargo being so late means to me a lot of people on the fence won't get things to convince them and if the RT score is as bad as a lot of people are fearing that'll be erm...not good.

 

Or you know, the lack of reviews and reactions won't matter and people go see it anyway because they grew up with the original and want to see how it is live action/take their children to go see it.  Aladdin will at least do better than Dumbo. I'm sorta convinced it will have a big Memorial Day weekend. Maybe not no 150 million, but it won't be 40-60 million. It's likely going to be like Pirates 5.

 

It's at least not another Solo where they had to scramble to reshoot an almost entire second movie.

 

Aladdin (and Godzilla) is not a movie that screams preorders, it screams walk ups. They'll end up doing both fine, and then Toy Story 4 will come and then Spider-man and then Lion King and then we all calm down until Frozen 2 and Star Wars.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

Or you know, the lack of reviews and reactions won't matter and people go see it anyway because they grew up with the original and want to see how it is live action/take their children to go see it.  Aladdin will at least do better than Dumbo. I'm sorta convinced it will have a big Memorial Day weekend. Maybe not no 150 million, but somewhere it won't be no 40-60 million. It's likely going to be like Pirates 5.

  

It's at least not another Solo where they had to scramble to reshoot an almost entire second movie.

 

Aladdin (and Godzilla) is not a movie that screams preorders, it screams walk ups. They'll end up doing both fine, and then Toy Story 4 will come and then Spider-man and then Lion King and then we all calm down until Frozen 2 and Star Wars.

 

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

It's funny you mention that.  I was thinking earlier today that we might want to implement a moratorium on the phrase "walkup based" in this thread for ANY movie that hadn't clearly already established it yet in a franchise/genre.

 

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Aladdin's pre-sales are very worrying because the Disney remake movies are absolutely massively pre-sale based. Look at BATB, Dumbo, Mary Poppins Returns etc etc. Not to mention like @Minnale101 said, this is going to be more female and teen/older audiences based on nostalgia. This should absolutely be on BATB's level pre-sales wise if this was going to be huge.

For that bit. As for the nostalgia bit as I've said to you in the past in the Aladdin thread, that doesn't seem to be overcoming the bad buzz Aladdin's getting. Yes the Genie stuff settled down but it still left an impact. Also Dumbo's OW went below tracking after getting bad reviews and WoM. The Disney remakes can't coast by on nostalgia alone anymore it seems. The pre-sales we're seeing now and the tracking numbers just do not suggest good things.