The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I don’t see how it’d get anywhere near a $200M OW.

Gimme 160/425/1.1B WW

Edited June 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[UserHN]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The Secret Life Of Pets 2 (2 before previews, 3 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

6:00 - 22/149

8:15 - 7/149

10:30 - 0/149

 

Running:

33% of Aladdin at the same time ($30.5M OW)

64% of Coco at the same time ($32.7M OW)

83% of Christopher Robin at the same time ($20.4M OW)

83% of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation at the same time ($36.6M OW)

121% of A Wrinkle In Time at the same time ($40.1M OW)

 

Ouch. Just ouch. This is very bad as Pets 2 final showtimes only has three showings. Thinking $45M-$55M OW. 

 

 

Dark Phoenix (2 before previews, 3 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/6/19

 

7:00 - 40/119

7:30 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 11/119 

10:30 - 0/119 - UltraScreen 

 

Running:

24% of Spider-Man: Homecoming at the same time ($28.3M OW)

34% of Ant Man and The Wasp at the same time ($26.1M OW)

41% of Venom at the same time ($33M OW)

62% of Godzilla: King Of The Monsters at the same time ($29.6M OW)

70% of Mission Impossible: Fallout ($42.8M OW)

 

Good jump but it wasn’t enough. This is very bad. Thinking $35M-$45M OW.

 

Men In Black: International (9 before previews, 10 before release)

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

6/13/19

 

4:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

7:00 - 3/301 - UltraScreen 

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

 

This is a very bad start. Starting to doubt over $35M OW.

What's happening to Pets 2? Didn't the first one open with $100M+? Now, there's a possibility that the sequel opens with 50% decrease?

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/29/2019 at 12:22 AM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local set - and b/c of the tightness, I'm not expecting anything to greatly surprise to the upside, including Aladdin's weekend hold (sorry, movie fans, but it also takes a hit on showings here)...here's the set...

 

NEW

KOTM (2 - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d) - biggest theater size and above average size

Ma (1 - 5 showings) - average size

Rocketman (1 - 5 showings) - above average size - this set just hurts for this film - it's gotta be the tightness, but it is what it is...

 

RETURNING

Aladdin (2 - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d) - lost 4 showings/full screen AND dropped from biggest screen - this is rough...KOTM only had 1 screen in presales (and not the biggest one), so they obviously dropped that biggest one to KOTM - we'll see if it pays off...seems Dumbo's 2nd weekend might be a factor here, b/c both theaters have now set like they expect the non-family movie drop

Booksmart (1 - 5 showings) - I can't imagine it will not get a showing scratched if the other movies, like Rocketman are flying, but it keeps it for now

Brightburn (1 - 6 showings) - see above:)

JW3 - (1 - 6 showings) - as expected, lost the 1/2 screen

Pikachu (1 - 5 showings) 

Endgame (1 - 4 showings)

A Dog's Journey (.75 - 3 showings) / The Hustle (.25 - 1 showing) - both barely hang on for their obvious last week

 

GONE

The Intruder, The Sun Is Also a Star

 

Next week, The Hustle, Dog's Journey, Brightburn, and Booksmart will likely be gone to make way for Pets and Dark Phoenix (that will give 3 screens)...if they need more than that, it's either Aladdin or KOTM kicking their 2nd screens over...or something big getting split or dropped...should be interesting...

So, 2nd local set (Regal) and it's again, not great news for the openers (especially DP), but pretty great news for all the performing holdovers, except Aladdin.  Here's the set...

 

NEW

Dark Phoenix (2 - 9 showings - 1 3d, 8 2d - above average and average screens) - this is an Atom theater with the $4 deal and a huge supers-going theater...and this set sucks for this movie...can't really sugarcoat it...

SLOP 2 (2 - 11 showings - 2 3d, 9 2d - biggest and above average) - not great, but sufficient to give it a decent opening...

Rifftrax (.2 - 1 showing on Pika's screen Friday and held open Sat/Sun)

 

RETURNING

Godzilla (1.5 - 7 showings - above average and average) - lost .5 screen, but not as savage a drop as other local

Ma (1 - 5 showings) 

Rocketman (1 - 5 showings)

Aladdin (1 - 5 showings) - ouch - it lost a whole screen here, probably to SLOP 2, which only had 1 screen in the presales period

JW3 (1 - 5 showings) 

Endgame (1 - 4 showings) - it's gonna be here and my other local on Father's Day - book it

Pika (.6 - 3 showings) - this seems like it might be the loser on Father's Day - it will be dropped with the movie below, and DP and Godzilla will give away extra screens

Booksmart (.2 - 1 late night showing on Pika's screen) - it somehow avoided the "killer B" curse for 1 extra week, but this showing is as likely to get scratched as to go:)...

 

GONE

Brightburn (aka - the other killer B - it didn't get saved for a single show), A Dog's Journey, The Hustle

 

So, next week, my locals have prebooked 2 screens and 3 screens for Shaft and MIB (crazily this local has 2 preselling for MIB)...I'd look for the 3 screens here from DP (1), Godzilla (.5), Pika/Booksmart (1 total), and SLOP 2 (.5 screens, keeping it at 1.5)...

 

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What's happening to Pets 2? Didn't the first one open with $100M+? Now, there's a possibility that the sequel opens with 50% decrease?

Yes, I think it's due to Aladdin being bigger than thought as well as lack of novelty. On the bright side, my theater is expecting it to be stronger on the weekend as it has 15 showings in at least 3 screens.

[Joyous Legion]

On 6/3/2019 at 6:18 PM, Porthos said:

In case Thanos Legion is busy right now:

 

6/3/19 (End of Mon):

2019-06-04 00:49:28.406531 UTC
1	29.9%	Aladdin
2	17.5%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	14.6%	Rocketman
4	8.5%	Ma
5	6.1%	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum

17 PT 6/4/19 (End of Tues)  

1	30.8%	Aladdin
2	15.2%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	13.1%	Rocketman
4	10.1%	Ma
5	7.9%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum 

[Porthos]

Been pretty busy today, but @Thanos Legion just reminded me to check:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-03 20:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.388%	16055	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	16.367%	13024	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	12.448%	8927	Rocketman
4	08.894%	6378	Ma (2019)
5	07.601%	5451	Dark Phoenix [combined]

 

SLOP2 is currently in seventh, about 1550 sets behind Wick 3.

Edited June 5, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

That seems bad. Like very bad

[YM!]

https://www.thewrap.com/secret-life-of-pets-2-dark-phoenix-box-office-preview/amp/

 

Pets 2: $60M

DPhoenix: $55M

[XXR & Friends]

29 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

https://www.thewrap.com/secret-life-of-pets-2-dark-phoenix-box-office-preview/amp/

 

Pets 2: $60M

DPhoenix: $55M

 

Right around where I expected Pets 2 but I think they’re overshooting Phoenix by at least $10m

[Menor the Destroyer]

31 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

https://www.thewrap.com/secret-life-of-pets-2-dark-phoenix-box-office-preview/amp/

 

Pets 2: $60M

DPhoenix: $55M

The only way that could happen is if the Atom deal is skewing the comps to a massive extent or it gets a massive surge (not likely unless it gets glowing reviews or something)

[Tinalera]

47 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

https://www.thewrap.com/secret-life-of-pets-2-dark-phoenix-box-office-preview/amp/

 

Pets 2: $60M

DPhoenix: $55M

Ooof. This weekend is going to hurt i think.

[Yandereprime101189]

Pets 2 should be making more than that but for some reason they're sorta shitting with the marketing compared to the first.

 

 

[Minnale101]

Releasing close to toy story 4 doesn’t help

[Eric the Minion]

I mentioned this in the Toy Story thread, but I feel like the first Pets movie has lost any sort of cultural relevance with the general public. Even just a few months after the movie came out, I've never seen anyone talk about it, watch it, buy merch of it, or anything. It feels like other movies like Moana and Trolls, which grossed way less, are way more popular nowadays. Like once 2017 rolled around, everybody stopped thinking about that movie.

 

By comparison, although admittedly I did grow up with sisters who were in the prime target demo for the movies, it felt like there was way more discussion about Despicable Me with people between 1 and 2.

 

I'll eat crow if this surprises, but it just seems like a franchise people just don't care about anymore.

Edited June 5, 2019 by CoolEric258

[filmlover]

Pets 2 feels like it's going to play like a comedy sequel, which usually crater.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I mentioned this in the Toy Story thread, but I feel like the first Pets movie has lost any sort of cultural relevance with the general public. Even just a few months after the movie came out, I've never seen anyone talk about it, watch it, buy merch of it, or anything. It feels like other movies like Moana and Trolls, which grossed way less, are way more popular nowadays. Like once 2017 rolled around, everybody stopped thinking about that movie.

 

By comparison, although admittedly I did grow up with sisters who were in the prime target demo for the movies, it felt like there was way more discussion about Despicable Me with people between 1 and 2.

 

I'll eat crow if this surprises, but it just seems like a franchise people just don't care about anymore.

No, I think you're onto something.  I put it more as "the first was pleasing enough, but left folks memories almost as soon as it entered."  That is, the GA clearly liked it, but it doesn't seem to have made any sort of impression on folks.

 

But betting against Illumination might be something of a suckers bet so I really am trying to withhold judgement until the last second.

[YM!]

If Pets 2 falls off, I’d say both Sing 2 and Minions 2 are in danger.

[filmlover]

Minions 2 is gonna die. Definitely a franchise whose best days are behind it.

[Eric the Minion]

41 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Releasing close to toy story 4 doesn’t help

That's another big issue too. Most people, especially parents, don't have that much disposable income to spend on entertainment. Parents play a big decision in moviegoing (they're the one who buy the tickets after all), and unless their kid is dying to go, I feel like most parents would rather pay to see Toy Story or Aladdin. Those are brands most adults probably have a stronger connection to for a multitude of reasons, and they want to be entertained too. Helps those are also brands that their kids likely already know and likely love.

 

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No, I think you're onto something.  I put it more as "the first was pleasing enough, but left folks memories almost as soon as it entered."  That is, the GA clearly liked it, but it doesn't seem to have made any sort of impression on folks.

 

But betting against Illumination might be something of a suckers bet so I really am trying to withhold judgement until the last second.

Despicable Me 3 dropped a pretty sizable amount from Minions and DM2. Obviously there were a lot of factors in play there, but the studio's not infallible.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Despicable Me 3 dropped a pretty sizable amount from Minions and DM2. Obviously there were a lot of factors in play there, but the studio's not infallible.

Fair enuf.  Allow me to amend my statement then.  I'll believe a sub-200m* DOM gross for an Illumination movie when I see it.  

 

DM3 dropped a sizable amount, yes.  But it and Grinch still cleared 250m with ease.  DM3 still had a 3.65x multi as well, so....

 

* Was tempted to type sub-250m film, but SLOP2 might just fail to clear that with all the competition coming down the pike.