The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Morning update. 

 

AQP2 OD sales are at $3.175m between the 2 MTC. So that translates to 6.5-6.7m national. I am not sure if it has enough juice to double this but 12m true friday looks good to me. 

 

Cruella sales are at $1.16m between 2 MTC and so national should be around 2.35m. I think 5m true friday should be the target for Cruella. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Conjuring Friday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

53

1888

2.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

53

255

20.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
264	N/A	8300	3.18%	11	55
$150 PWPs:	1
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	4
Total	7

 

GvK comp: 1.96M

Mortal Kombat comp: 3.57M

 

Wouldn't take too much from these comps atm. Seems like it's doing fine, especially if it's pretty backloaded like A Quiet Place.

The Conjuring Friday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

57

1888

3.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

65

255

25.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
314	50	10204	3.08%	13	62
$150 PWPs:	3
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	5
Total	10

 

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 1904

 

GvK comp: 2.07M

MK comp: 3.74M

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Assuming AQP2 does $12M true friday,how does that look for the 3 days?

[Joyous Legion]

49 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Assuming AQP2 does $12M true friday,how does that look for the 3 days?

45Mish, though we could always get surprised one way or the other by the Sat bump.

[Eric is Quiet]

21 hours ago, Eric De Vil said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	318	3837	8.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	350	3837	9.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

[keysersoze123]

AQP2 OD Final

MTC1 - 275010/1025947 3072234.00 6504 shows(431 Theatres)

MTC2 - 205289/745207 2274307.00 5424 shows(306 Theatres)

 

Cruella OD Final

MTC1 - 111938/608975 1068246.00 4337 shows(417 Theatres)

MTC2 - 101862/475599 1028040.57 3675 shows(306 Theatres)

 

I am give 45% ratio for AQP2 and so around 11.9m True Friday. Cruella around 48% ratio and 4.35m True Friday. I will try to update saturday PS tad later but I am not expecting huge increase for AQP2 and even Cruella wont increase that much. Let us hope for something good to keep 50m over 4 days for AQP2. 

Edited May 29, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Borobudur]

11.9m true friday is only 2.48x of the preview. This is no way close to pre-pandemic level like BB4L (3.7x) . This could really mean the low-teen number is the celling for any movies in near term 

[keysersoze123]

On 5/27/2021 at 7:16 PM, keysersoze123 said:

OD PS

AQP

MTC1 - 102690/997940 1262282.00 6110 shows

MTC2 - 77832/681030 896771.23 4775 shows

 

Cruella

MTC1 - 36323/592931 373364.00 4125 shows

MTC2 - 34444/449557 354858.54 3452 shows

AQP2 D2 PS

MTC1 - 101228/1170588 1050631.00 7257 shows

MTC2 - 76777/781581 868942.24 5653 shows

 

Cruella D2 PS

MTC1 - 45413/708237 357915.00 5019 shows

MTC2 - 39972/513124 396931.29 3956 shows

 

AQP2 PS is down 16% at MTC1($ value) and about 3% down in MTC1. It should catch up and cross Day 1 sales with walk ups. I would say 10-15% increase minus previews for AQP2.

 

Cruella PS is tad less in $ value in MTC1 and about 12% more in MTC2. I expect walk ups to be better and ratio has to fall even more. So let us hope for 30-40% increase tomorrow minus previews. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

I am thinking $12.75M

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

11.9m true friday is only 2.48x of the preview. This is no way close to pre-pandemic level like BB4L (3.7x) . This could really mean the low-teen number is the celling for any movies in near term 

capacity limits going away in June probably everywhere may help box office ?

Edited May 29, 2021 by Ryan Reynolds

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking $12.75M

I hope you are right. That would be much better. I am being conservative after being off yesterday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

11.9m true friday is only 2.48x of the preview. This is no way close to pre-pandemic level like BB4L (3.7x) . This could really mean the low-teen number is the celling for any movies in near term 

I don't remember if those had 5PM previews, but logistically speaking, 5PM onward is prime sessions, so basically THU is like an 60-70% OD now practically. I had fears of not even doubling on Fri, atleast that didn't happen.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I hope you are right. That would be much better. I am being conservative after being off yesterday. 

Yeah that was a lot of over indexing. We don't know how many locs did previews on THU, so probably not many did or not many normally did. Demon Slayer over indexed even more on THU at 72% in MTC 1 and 2, coming down to 58% for FSS.

[charlie Jatinder]

MK PSm increased from 1.9x to 2.4x on SAT in MTCs. 

AQP2 PSm is 2.7x, which is back to what used to be in normal days in MTCs. If SAT PSm growth is normal, we should have 14.5 (from 12.5-12.75 OD) SAT. 

 

45-46M 3 days

55-56M 4 days

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't remember if those had 5PM previews, but logistically speaking, 5PM onward is prime sessions, so basically THU is like an 60-70% OD now practically. I had fears of not even doubling on Fri, atleast that didn't happen.

BB4L had preview started at 4pm. And I am not convinced that AQP2 is more fan driven that BB4L. 

 

13 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

capacity limits going away in June probably everywhere may help box office ?

Maybe but even GvK manage to get 12.6m at its highest point, that is when New York and California and a lot other places still have the capacity limit at 25%. Now, almost all of them got doubled, that alone will free up more headroom for AQP2 to carry over from its Thursday buzz. 

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah that was a lot of over indexing. We don't know how many locs did previews on THU, so probably not many did or not many normally did. Demon Slayer over indexed even more on THU at 72% in MTC 1 and 2, coming down to 58% for FSS.

Unlike DS/MK times, almost all the plexes are open even during weekdays now. I guess this being memorial weekend release plus capacity limits are improving has changed things. I am not expecting dramatically lower ratio. Dont forget about lack of canada. Isn't that 12% of OW. For Cruella its even worse as I expect its BO dominated by markets where MTC has a bigger share. Anyway we will find out tomorrow morning. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

BB4L had preview started at 4pm. And I am not convinced that AQP2 is more fan driven that BB4L. 

 

Maybe but even GvK manage to get 12.6m at its highest point, that is when New York and California and a lot other places still have the capacity limit at 25%. Now, almost all of them got doubled, that alone will free up more headroom for AQP2 to carry over from its Thursday buzz. 

 but now we have 2 high profile openers on same weekend, once restrictions are gone , no excuses

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not expecting dramatically lower ratio. Dont forget about lack of canada. Isn't that 12% of OW.

Weekend is usually 8% while previews can go as low as 5%.

[titanic2187]

I was hoping for at least 13m for true friday. This doesn't put a smile on face. Assuming 46m 3 days for AQP2 and some 16m for Cruella. Overall box office is likely to top 70m or even 75m. Of course this is higher than MK+DS weekend but IMO, it is simply not high enough.

 

2021's MW is likely to be 60% lower than that of in 2019. This is actually far better than 80% that we have seen since beginning of the year. At least the gap is closing.     

[titanic2187]

57 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

11.9m true friday is only 2.48x of the preview. This is no way close to pre-pandemic level like BB4L (3.7x) . This could really mean the low-teen number is the celling for any movies in near term 

I agree. The multiplier is way too off for a movie with good WOM compared to pre-pandemic time. Even EG, a far more fan-driven at that high number managed to get 2.6x but of course that is due to spillover effect too.  TROS did 2.23x too despite mixed reaction, and have their number at much much higher level. The macro factor is really biting the dynamic of carry over effects.