The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oh, bothernation.   Regal is still social distancing while Cinemark isn't.

Yeah, I was just going through my theaters and was gonna ask about this. Only Cinemark seems to have no restrictions, every other theater still does in the Denver area.

[el sid]

In the Heights, counted yesterday at 3pm EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 56 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 56 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (1 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 91 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 175 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters for June 11: 380 (and 55 sold tickets in LA for the Thursday previews, the only theater of my 7 theaters were Thursday showtimes are listed at the moment). That's a quite good number I think?
Not easy for me to find good comps: AQP II had 1 day later (means on Tuesday, 9 days before its previews) 402 sold tickets, so ITH is almost on par (but of course AQP II had a good last week and no HBO Max competition).
Blinded by the Light (4.3M OW) had 102 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so here 380 tickets minus NY = 324) 1 day before its Friday release and Cats (6.6M OW) counted also 1 day before its previews on Thursday had 225 sold tickets in 6 theaters (so again 380 tickets minus NY = 324) for Friday.
I wish I would have bigger movies for comparisons but still, with 10 (previews) or 11 (Fridays) days left In the Heights leaded already yesterday.

I will count In the Heights later in the week again.

 

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 181 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 51 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 51 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 12 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 31 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 64 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 407 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for Friday/June 4: 797.
Up 24% since yesterday. That's ok (AQP II had a jump of 21% but from now on very good daily jumps).
AQP II had last Tuesday 903 sold tickets for its Thursday previews.
As often some Tuesday comps are missing and I have to use the Wednesday instead: The Invisible Man (28.2M) had on Wednesday 628 sold tickets, Scary Stories (20.9M) had also on Wednesday 377 sold tickets.
Crawl (12.0M) had on Tuesday in 6 theaters 121 sold tickets (so for The Conjuring it's 641 tickets without NY = 616).
So far it looks good for The Conjuring 3.

[Legion Again]

So Cinemark is going bold huh? Good for them.   
 

Not so good for trackers though 😅

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Yeah, I was just going through my theaters and was gonna ask about this. Only Cinemark seems to have no restrictions, every other theater still does in the Denver area.

Do you still have caps in Colorado? Haven't kept track, I'm afraid. 

 

Either way, what I'm probably going to do is treat Cinemark locations as 100% uncapped, but keep some sort of cap formula for everyone else.  Or just not report sellouts for social distanced locations.  Dunno.  Still chewing it over.

 

Presuming they don't flip a switch mid-way through this track, which isn't a safe bet at all, of course. 

 

This is the main reason I wasn't looking forward to the FF9 Redux track  — the rules changing during it causing all sorts of headaches.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

So Cinemark is going bold huh? Good for them.   
 

Not so good for trackers though 😅

Well the thing is, if I purchase a ticket through Fandango, I'll still get that "social distance" warning/infobox pop up on some of the Cinemark locations.  But near as I can tell, no local Cinemark location is actually socially distancing seats when purchased for FF9.  Certainly aren't on the corp site.

 

No idea how wide-spead this is chain-wide though, nor what date Cinemark is planning on flipping the no social distance seats switch locally.  Presumably June 15th.

Edited June 1, 2021 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Do you still have caps in Colorado? Haven't kept track, I'm afraid.

There were social distancing requirements for indoor events with more than 100 people. But that was just revoked today, so we’ll see if theaters update accordingly soon.

[Old Spice]

The Cinemark Theater that I track in Salt Lake City has a virtually sold-out prime evening slot for In the Heights opening day, but 1/4 of those seats were gobbled up by the theater's mandate for 'safe seating.' Curious to see if they will open them back up for sale. They did away with the mask mandate late last week for folks who are fully vaccinated.

[WrathOfHan]

Presales update: Full weekend showtimes are up. The Conjuring only has 3 screens (with IMAX) while A Quiet Place is keeping Dolby and has 5 screens. 

 

Thursday:

 

Spirit Untamed:

5:00: 2/67 (-)

7:40: 1/67 (-)

Total: 3/134 (-)

 

Friday:

 

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It:

2:15: 0/107 (New)

3:00: 0/77 (New)

4:00 IMAX: 9/372 (+5)

5:20: 0/107 (New)

6:00: 7/77 (+2)

7:00 IMAX: 18/372 (+7)

8:15: 0/107 (New)

8:45: 0/40 (New)

9:00: 18/77 (+9)

10:00 IMAX: 0/372 (New)

Total: 52/1,524 (+23/+626) (79% increase in sales since Sunday)

 

Spirit Untamed:

3:40: 6/67 (-)

6:20: 0/67 (-)

9:05: 0/67 (New)

Total: 6/201 (-/+67)

 

Conjuring comps:

 

49% of AQP2 previews two days out (2.4M)

30% of AQP's Friday the day before (5.8M)

62% of Spiral's Friday day of (2.3M)

173% of Spiral's previews the day before (1.3M)

 

I wouldn't say these are too encouraging, especially now that screen counts are out with AQP and Cruella still having more screens than Conjuring. Anything over 15M would need strong walkups.

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

On 5/25/2021 at 8:51 PM, WrathOfHan said:

 

Finding You, Here Today, Profile, Separation, and The Water Man are gone.

 

A Quiet Place Part II: 18 (IMAX, Dolby, Largest x2, and Average)

Cruella: 15 (Largest x2, Above Average x2, and Average)

 

Private Rentals: 5 (Below Average x2)

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train: 4 (2 Sub/2 Dub; Smallest)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 4 (Average)

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 4 (Average)

Those Who Wish Me Dead: 4 (Smallest)

Dream Horse: 3 (Smallest x0.75)

Godzilla vs Kong: 3 (Smallest x0.75)

Mortal Kombat: 3 (Smallest)

Wrath of Man: 3 (Smallest)

Final Account: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

Scoob!: 1 (Smallest x0.25)

Dream Horse, Godzilla vs Kong, Mortal Kombat, Scoob!, and Those Who Wish me Dead are gone.

 

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It: 12 (IMAX, Largest, Above Average, and Smallest x0.25)

Spirit Untamed: 5 (Average x1.33)

Raiders of the Lost Ark: 1 (Smallest x0.33)

 

A Quiet Place: Part II: 17 (Dolby, Largest x2, Average, and Smallest)

Cruella: 14 (Largest, Average x1.67, Below Average, and Smallest)

Private Rentals: 4 (Average and Below Average)

Spiral: From the Book of Saw: 4 (Smallest)

Raya and the Last Dragon: 3 (Smallest x0.75)

Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train: 2 (1 Sub/1 Dub; Smallest x0.67)

Wrath of Man: 2 (Smallest x0.67)

Final Account: 1 (Smallest x0.33)

 

Weekend hours are 12-10 in line with last week, but weekday hours have been reduced quite a bit to 4-8.

[Inceptionzq]

Fast 9 Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

17

848

2.00%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

12

1665

0.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST SEVERAL HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
107	107	12764	0.84%	15	61
$150 PWPs:	0
$200 PWPs:	0
$250 PWPs:	0
$300 PWPs:	0
Total	0

 

Not too crazy, hasn't been on sale for long and there was only a clip alongside presales drop instead of a full trailer. Nothing to really take away from this, it's just mostly setup for the rest of tracking.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Conjuring Friday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

116

1888

6.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

83

255

32.55%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
600	116	10346	5.80%	13	63
$150 PWPs:	4
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	5
Total	11

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 142

 

GvK comp: 2.58M

MK comp: 4.4M

 

Continues to trend upward. It's doing pretty good

The Conjuring Friday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

183

1888

9.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

85

255

33.33%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
875	275	11844	7.39%	13	74
$150 PWPs:	5
$200 PWPs:	1
$250 PWPs:	1
$300 PWPs:	6
Total	13

 

Showings added: 11

Seats added: 1498

 

GvK comp: 3.16M

MK comp: 5.07M

 

Wow, an amazing day. Don't know why Highlands Ranch hasn't added more showings, they are holding themselves back. Probably would've broke 300 tickets sold today if they added more already.

[Borobudur]

@Tinalera Do we really have to wait until July for rest of the Canada to resume their business? 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

@Tinalera Do we really have to wait until July for rest of the Canada to resume their business? 

Not Tinalera (nor @Jason for that matter), but something that you might not be aware of:

 

% of Canadians with at least 1 dose of a vaccine: 58%

% of Canadians who are fully vaccinated:             5.5%

 

That is NOT a typo.  Now not being Canadian I don't know the exact ins and outs, but I presume they are more or less following a longer span between doses strategy (which very likely was at least partially driven by supply considerations).  That means the number of folks with partial immunity can rise pretty quickly, as seen in this graph (scroll down to Figure 2).

 

It also means, though, that "full vaccination" might take quite a while longer, but once it does it should come in pretty quickly.  Especially since the Canadian government is recommending "mixing and matching" various vaccines in "certain situations".

 

Anywho, a long time between doses might even be a good thing, if some studies about antibody production are accurate.  Either way though, until more Canadians are fully vaccinated, I wouldn't expect them to copy the CDC's "run free and be merry.... as long as you're vaccinated" guidance.  Which means that "July" sounds pretty likely to me as a target date.  Jason, if he decides to pick up the phone sees anything worth commenting on after being tagged, might have more insightful commentary, including that target date. 

 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Porthos

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 5/31/2021 at 11:27 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Spirit Untamed Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	53	180	4345	4.14%

 

Comp

1.429x of Raya T-3 Before Release (3.72M)

0.356x of Cruella T-3 Before Release (2.74M)

 

Yeah this isn't very good. We'll see if it picks up or not.

Spirit Untamed Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	97	207	6844	3.02%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 44

Total Seats Added Today: 2,499

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp

0.637x of Raya T-2 Before Release (1.66M)

0.382x of Cruella T-2 Before Release (2.94M)

 

😬 

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 5/31/2021 at 11:35 PM, Eric is Full of Pride said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	49	704	4840	14.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 173

 

Comp

0.326x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-4 Before Release (3.16M)

0.465x of Mortal Kombat T-4 Before Release (4.23M)

0.416x of A Quiet Place Part II Monday Before Release (8.02M)

 

Was kind of hoping the movie sold a little bit more, but beggars can't be choosers. And this is comping very well with AQP2 at this point in time.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	104	1007	9976	10.09%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 55

Total Seats Added Today: 5,136

Total Seats Sold Today: 303

 

Comp

0.385x of Godzilla vs. Kong T-3 Before Release (3.74M)

0.547x of Mortal Kombat T-3 Before Release (4.97M)

0.392x of A Quiet Place Part II Tuesday Before Release (7.60M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

F9 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	280	5090	5.50%

 

So my plan at the moment is to be rid of Friday for movies with Thursday previews, as it takes too much time to record and has been hurting my own sleep schedule and health. I'm unsure if something like Spirit will, so if we do get separate Thursday numbers, that'll be the big test that will just make me focus on Thursday from now on. For F9, I feel 99% confident we will get separate Thursday numbers revealed, so we're good there.

 

Anyways, I don't have anything too far back just yet in terms of comps, but this seems solid, if unspectacular so far.

[Porthos]

F9 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	12755	13148	393	2.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

393

 

===

 

Due to a variety of factors, including deciding to finally start tracking the (meager amount of) DBOX seats in the region, I'm more or less restarting my comps from scratch.  Don't have anything good for F9 anyway, as anything that's a decent comp before the pandemic era has too much adjusting to be that worthwhile, and the nearest decent comp of GvK isn't that great due to Regal being down at the time. Plus GvK starting late in Sacramento.  Might throw in a GvK comp on an adjusted basis in a few days thou.

 

As for seat caps and social distancing, I said "eff it" and am now using the total number of seats, caps be damned.  Cinemark is obviously acting as if the June 15th transition date is full speed ahead, and while literally everyone else in town is still implementing social distancing, I'll cross the bridge of what to do if they sell out a showing thanks to running out of seats when/if I get to it.  Probably just make a special note of "Social Distance Sellout" without adjusting any sort of seat total.

 

As for how F9 did locally?  I mean, I guess al'ight.  Didn't set the world on fire, and I ain't comfortable with running with any pre-2020 comps, as I said.  Will say it's about at 81% of F9's original total of presales before the world shut down.  But F9 was still literally months away from opening, so pretty useless comp.  As for GvK, it's at about the same level of sales after 2.5 days worth of sales here (GvK Day 2 of sales: 328 seats sold | GvK Day 3 of sales: 462 seats sold | F9 Adj: 377 seats sold).  But, leery of that as well due to GvK having sustained strength and I really don't got a sense of F9 yet.  

 

tl;dr:  Situation hazy; ask again later.
 

Edited June 2, 2021 by Porthos

[Jason]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Not Tinalera (nor @Jason for that matter), but something that you might not be aware of:

 

% of Canadians with at least 1 dose of a vaccine: 58%

% of Canadians who are fully vaccinated:             5.5%

 

That is NOT a typo.  Now not being Canadian I don't know the exact ins and outs, but I presume they are more or less following a longer span between doses strategy (which very likely was at least partially driven by supply considerations).  That means the number of folks with partial immunity can rise pretty quickly, as seen in this graph (scroll down to Figure 2).

 

It also means, though, that "full vaccination" might take quite a while longer, but once it does it should come in pretty quickly.  Especially since the Canadian government is recommending "mixing and matching" various vaccines in "certain situations".

 

Anywho, a long time between doses might even be a good thing, if some studies about antibody production are accurate.  Either way though, until more Canadians are fully vaccinated, I wouldn't expect them to copy the CDC's "run free and be merry.... as long as you're vaccinated" guidance.  Which means that "July" sounds pretty likely to me as a target date.  Jason, if he decides to pick up the phone sees anything worth commenting on after being tagged, might have more insightful commentary, including that target date. 

 

Yes, the longer span between doses was mostly driven by supply considerations.

 

Decisions on theatre reopenings are made at the provincial level. Quebec, which has actually had generally stricter restrictions than Ontario, actually already has theatres open since early March but at reduced capacity. Alberta and BC have theatres being re-opened at reduced capacity in "stage 2", estimated to happen in mid-June. Ontario (almost half of Canadian market) has theatres re-opening in "stage 3" which means we will be waiting until at least mid-July (6 weeks from today) for partial re-opening of theatres.
 

Spoiler

We actually have lower COVID rates (7 cases/100k/day) than Alberta right now, and the COVID Science Table here hasn't said theatres are especially risky, but...Ford is in way over his head so at least this isn't as bad as when parks were closed in April, right after the head of the Science Table told everyone to be outdoors. Or as bad as the fact that the Science Table advised that schools could be opened if we kept other things closed, and we did and will again be doing the exact opposite. 

A guideline for metrics to be used for full re-opening (i.e. without capacity restrictions) hasn't been given yet, but if I had to guess, probably mid-August, maybe even as late as early September.

[el sid]

The Conjuring 3, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 280 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 99 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 69 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 60 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 91 + 1 Sell Out, not sure if true (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 454 + 1 Sell Out, probably true this time because the evening shows are already pretty crowded (10 showtimes).

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters till today for Friday: 1.074+.
Up 35% since yesterday (AQP II had a jump of 34%).
AQP II had last Wednesday 1.209 sold tickets for its Thursday previews.
It 2 had on Wednesday of its release week 3.272 sold tickets for Friday, The Invisible Man (28.2M) 628, Scary Stories (20.9M) 377 and Crawl (12.0M) 170.
This is encouraging! Especially how consistent the jumps are in the different regions of the country (only San Francisco still looks a bit weak).

[Eric Loves Rey]

https://deadline.com/2021/06/a-quiet-place-part-ii-tuesday-box-office-record-the-conjuring-the-devil-made-me-do-it-1234768031/

 

Quote

The current running total of A Quiet Place Part II is $61.3M. This weekend, it’s expected to ease 50%-55% for a possible No. 1 win between $21M-$23.7M. New Line/HBO Max’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It looks to do between $15M-$20M at 3,100+ locations, including Imax, PLF, Dolby, Drive-ins, 4DX and private watch parties.

 

Also opening wide is Universal’s release of DreamWorks Animation’s long-awaited sequel Spirit Untamed which should do around $5M this coming weekend.