The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

In a preliminary run, a really shit day at Harkins CA for Free Guy. Neither the show increased and except 3 shows, all of them sold nothing. WED is usually when these small films start catching up pace and here nothing of that sorts.

 

Weirdly Phoenix theaters are doing okay for Free Guy, though even there Cine1 shortage is a big loss. The 2 theaters are usually less than half of CA, here they are more. If things don't improve, Harkins won't be a good indicator for FG. Improve as in Cine 1 shows and increase in show count to normal levels.

Edited August 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hopefully @keysersoze123 will report MTC1 today.  Assuming MTC2 don't over index, may be 7K by end of today in MTC 2 and then 3.25x PSm on THU for 23K final. Using normal ratios, that would be $1.8M previews. 

honestly I am bored tracking plus my day is hectic working across time zones. Best case scenario it does like 2m previews and mid teens OW which hardly screams a breakout. Let us wait for something exciting. Hope Marvel pulls a rabbit despite tough situation with Shang Chi. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

THURSDAY:

 

Free Guy

Cinemark: (13)

6pm (7), 630 XD (4), 835 3D (1), 9pm (1), 930 Xd (0)

AMC: (61)

6PM 3D (7), 7pm (7), 725 DOLBY (47) 8pm (0)

 

Bleak. This was always intended to be more walkup heavy but fact it immediately slumped after a sudden PS bump and lacks a draw like The Rock, I wouldn't count on big numbers. Beginning to believe under 20 for this one

 

No point in tracking Respect here. AMC has a dozen seats if that. Don't Breathe, don't worry about it

[keysersoze123]

Anyway I hate to disappoint @charlie Jatinder as this was a quick one. 

 

Free Guy Previews (T-1)

MTC1 - 19813/228019 314978.81

 

Since MTC2 number is low. I am thinking about 2m previews if it doubles this number by end of previews. 

[Eric the IF]

23 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	180	3497	5.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

0.119x of Conjuring 3 2 Days Before Release (1.17M)

1.956x of Forever Purge T-2 (2.6M)

1.241x of Escape Room 2 T-2 (1.49M)

0.947x of Old T-2 (1.42M)

Don't Breathe 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	297	3497	8.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 117

 

Comp

0.196x of Conjuring 3 1 Day Before Release (1.93M)

1.993x of Forever Purge T-1 (2.65M)

1.160x of Escape Room 2 T-1 (1.39M)

1.129x of Old T-1 (1.69M)

[Eric the IF]

23 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	223	9187	2.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp

1.098x of Snake Eyes T-2 (1.54M)

0.937x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (2.53M)

 

Well despite my meltdowns and everybody else seeing a decline, my comps for Free Guy inexplicably went up. Gotta love it 🙈

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	304	9187	3.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

1.169x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.64M)

0.971x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (2.62M)

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @keysersoze123. So WED will probably end around 20-21K may be. Say it has 1.7x PSm, that would be 35K ish final. That would be pretty good, equivalent of $2-2.2M with normal ratios.

[Eric the IF]

23 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	182	3910	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

0.324x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-2 (1.21M)

0.336x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-2 (2.59M)

0.111x of Space Jam 2 2 Days Before Release (1.45M)

Respect Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	256	3910	4.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 74

 

Comp

0.329x of Spiral Thu+Fri T-1 (1.23M)

0.321x of Cruella Thu+Fri T-1 (2.47M)

0.097x of Space Jam 2 1 Day Before Release (1.27M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Will update in the morning.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Looking at Ryan Reynolds openings post Deadpool:

April 2016: Criminal- 5.7m (albeit 2500 theater release)

March 2017: Life- 12.5m

August 2017: Hitman's Bodyguard- 21.3m

June 2021: Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard- 11.3m (3day)/16.7m (5 day)

 

Not counting Deadpool 2 or Pikachu. Free Guy is within this range. He doesn't move the box office needle. And of course it's an original property.

 

The highest opening for an original film this year is Old with 16.8m, so at least it can top that? (Barely. And costing over 80m more)

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You expect over 10m for Jungle Cruise? A 65% drop would have Suicide Squad at like 9.2m which I feel should be enough. Jungle Cruise would need a drop better than 45%. 40% would put it around 9.5 so it could be neck and neck if TSS really plunges

Thinking 9M ish. TSS probably 8.7-9.1.

[ThomasNicole]

With $2M this still can make +20M i think.

 

Hoping for $ 2.2M and great wom across the weekend.

[Rorschach]

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX -- Wednesday Night Outlook

Don’t Breathe 2

Thursday:

7:00 P.M.: 10/85

7:55 P.M.: 0/85

9:40 P.M.: 4/85

10:35 P.M.: 0/85

Total Sold: 14/340 (4.12% sold)

 

Comp:

1.27x Old: $1.91 mil

 

Friday:

11:30 A.M.: 2/94

12:50 P.M.: 0/85

2:10 P.M.: 2/94

3:30 P.M.: 1/85

4:50 P.M.: 0/94

6:10 P.M.: 0/85

7:30 P.M.: 20/94

8:50 P.M.: 0/85

10:10 P.M.: 2/94

Total Sold: 27/810 (3.33% sold)

 

Comp:

1.04x Old: $5.61 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 41/1,150 (3.57% sold)

 

Comp:

1.11x Old: $7.66 mil

...........................................................................

Free Guy

Thursday: 

IMAX showings: 2/774

7:00 P.M.: 2/387

9:55 P.M.: 0/387

2D showings: 36/508

6:00 P.M.: 21/135

8:15 P.M.: 9/238

8:55 P.M.: 6/135

Total Sold: 38/1,282 (2.96% sold)

 

Comps:

1.03x Snake Eyes: $1.44 mil

0.63x Jungle Cruise: $1.71 mil

 

Friday:

IMAX showings: 8/744

12:05 P.M.: 2/387

6:05 P.M.: 6/387

 

3D showings: 0/238 (lol)

8:05 P.M.: 0/238

 

2D showings: 55/1,389

10:05 A.M.: 9/135

11:05 A.M.: 2/238

1:05 P.M.: 5/135

2:05 P.M.: 3/238

4:05 P.M.: 4/135

5:05 P.M.: 4/238

7:05 P.M.: 25/135

10:05 P.M.: 3/135

Total Sold: 63/2,371 (2.66% sold)

 

Comps:

2.17x Snake Eyes: $8.9 mil

0.47x Jungle Cruise: $5.08 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 101/3,653 (2.76% sold)

 

Comps:

1.53x Snake Eyes: $8.4 mil

0.52x Jungle Cruise: $7 mil

...................................................................................

Respect

Thursday:

6:00 P.M. (Fathom Live Stream Q&A Event): 0/141

7:00 P.M.: 3/94

9:55 P.M.: 0/141

10:30 P.M.: 0/94

Total Sold: 3/470 (0.64% sold)

 

Comp:

N/A

 

Friday:

11:55 A.M.: 4/141

3:20 P.M.: 7/141

6:45 P.M.: 16/141

10:10 P.M.: 0/141

Total Sold: 27/564 (4.79% sold)

 

Comp:

0.93x Stillwater: $1.46 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 30/1,034 (2.9% sold)

 

Comp:

0.12x Space Jam 2: $1.62 mil

1.03x Stillwater: $1.92 mil

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by Rorschach

[Legion Again]

Th looks about where I have been targeting for a long time, Friday not so happy with. Maybe WOM walkups blah blah, but IM could be more like 9 vs 12ish I was looking at a week ago.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Cruella did 1.4m Thursday for a 21m weekend. (Boss Baby 2 did 1.3m for 16m). I’d say 1.5 would be necessary for Free Guy to hit 20? 2m would cement it pending an unexpectedly frontloaded weekend 

 

1.5m brought Old to 16.8m and 1.4 brought Snake Eyes to 13.3. Naturally these films can’t be comparable to Free Guy but 15m feels like floor if it hit 1.5

Edited August 12, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Th looks about where I have been targeting for a long time, Friday not so happy with. Maybe WOM walkups blah blah, but IM could be more like 9 vs 12ish I was looking at a week ago.

Just like China, only OD PS really matters. After that things go as the reports go.

 

And in USA, THU is almost an OD.

Edited August 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just like China, only OD PS really matters. After that things go as the reports go.

 

And in USA, THU is almost an OD.

Hmmmm, I don’t think I agree with that. Hasn’t Th:Fri PS ration been fairly indicative of Th:TFri gross ratio, and therefore of IM, for most of the summer and pre-pandemic as well (adjusting for genre)? I think Sat and beyond PS largely doesn’t matter but Fri PS DOM are perhaps even more important than Th, just like Fri are way more important than Th in China.     
 

Depends on the movie though, sometimes Th does act almost like a full OD and sometimes closer to a China Th.

Edited August 12, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Inceptionzq]

Free Guy Megaplex

 

T-1 day Thursday: 433 tickets sold in 13 theaters

 

T-2 days Friday: 790 tickets sold in 14 theaters

 

Thursday would need to go almost 4x from now to match Jungle Cruise. Didn't track it for Friday

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/11/2021 at 11:53 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Free Guy Harkins California T-2 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	11	3,069	53	1.73%	$680	$12.83
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
Total	11	3,069	53	1.73%	$680	$12.83

 

Comp

43% of Jungle Cruise Normal Shows - $1.03M

35% of The Suicide Squad Normal Shows - $1.45M

 

As a broken record, it need Cine1 showing but even without them sales are quite low in normal ones. May be Jungle Cruise overperformed in these but TSS comp isn't great either. Need big bumps.

 

Estrella Falls and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	39	6.18%	$468	$12.00
Cine 1	0	0	0	#DIV/0!	$0	#DIV/0!
IMAX	2	890	4	0.45%	$60	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	43	2.83%	$528	$12.28

 

Normal screenings in these two are actually not that bad. They are slightly better than TSS but TSS had IMAX and Cine 1 doing much better. 

 

Harkins numbers are par or worse than MTC2 ones. MTC1 would need to do heavy lifting.

Free Guy Harkins California T-1 Day

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80
Total	13	3,286	81	2.47%	$1,037	$12.80

 

So its confirmed that it won't release on Cine1 on THU with TSS holding all of the shows. That makes it incompatible with any other comp I had. Even using the normal screenings only, it is 30% of TSS and 33% of Jungle Cruise. 

 

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	4	631	80	12.68%	$960	$12.00
IMAX	2	890	18	2.02%	$270	$15.00
Total	11	1,521	98	6.44%	$1,230	$12.55

 

Completely opposite, in these two normal screenings are beating TSS by 38% though IMAX is well behind at 14%. Overall without Cine1, these two theaters are 47% of TSS.

 

Since release size is small I may track more theaters to get idea of whole chain as CA seems outlier.

 

Edit:

Arvada 14, CO - 21 (3 shows) 13.2% of BW

Arrowhead Fountains, PNX - 31 (4 shows) 11.9% of BW

 

The above two are actually quite solid considering BW had a very low multi, so 12-13% of BW T-1 day is equivalent of 18-20% final of BW.

 

No idea why CA is being so low. Just 7% of BW in normal screening, and just 3.8% when Cine1 are added.

Edited August 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Don't Breathe 2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	34	10	2.84%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,056	15	2	1.42%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,317	38	23	2.89%
	Don't Breathe 2 Total		19	31	3,572	87	35	2.44%
	Free Guy	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	135	19	3.11%
		Phoenix	7	17	2,735	134	22	4.90%
		Raleigh	7	18	2,055	135	12	6.57%
	Free Guy Total		20	62	9,137	404	53	4.42%
	Respect	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	27	9	1.75%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,310	24	11	1.83%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,673	54	14	3.23%
	Respect Total		19	32	4,527	105	34	2.32%
T-8	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	0	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	2	0	0.23%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	7	4	0.56%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	12	4	0.41%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	4	1	0.41%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	2	0	0.15%
		Raleigh	6	11	1,328	8	0	0.60%
	The Protégé Total		17	28	3,668	14	1	0.38%
T-9	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	10	1,080	10	0	0.93%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,487	29	3	1.17%
		Raleigh	2	8	676	45	5	6.66%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		11	33	4,243	84	8	1.98%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	3	0	0.11%
		Phoenix	6	22	2,931	2	2	0.07%
		Raleigh	6	24	3,285	0	0	0.00%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		17	64	8,862	5	2	0.06%

 

Free Guy is now at .87x where Jungle Cruise was at this point.   While it isn't following JC's sales pattern, I don't really have a better comp.  Today's number was pretty far below any of the action comps; it could be more of a comedy pattern, but there haven't been any since I've started tracking.  The chart below shows a how Free Guy is selling compared to other action movies.  T-9 was the first day for Free Guy so that data point is total sales up to that point.

 

 

Don't Breathe 2 is maintaining distance behind Escape Room 2 (150) and Forever Purge (135).  I'm not sure if Friday being the 13th will depress Thursday sales, but they sure aren't impressive so far.  

 

Respect is staying right with Roadrunner (107) for the second day in a row. The weekend sales look much better though.

 

For the questions about how there are conflicting projections for preview numbers - the trackers are looking at pretty small sample sizes and comparing them to how other movies were selling at the same point in time.  Movies don't all have the same sales patterns, so we try to compare to movies that we think will preform the same way using genre, target audience, rating, etc.   There's no perfect formula to predicting a preview number, especially with the majority of sales coming on the night the shows start. As we get closer to Thursday night, predictions usually start to converge around the same number which tends to be pretty close. All that being said, I think the people on here are probably the best you'll find at predicting preview numbers.

 

*Note - I reordered my table to sort by release date

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Don't Breathe 2	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	61	27	5.09%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,056	54	39	5.11%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,317	56	18	4.25%
	Don't Breathe 2 Total		19	31	3,572	171	84	4.79%
	Free Guy	Jacksonville	6	28	4,412	181	46	4.10%
		Phoenix	7	20	3,138	219	85	6.98%
		Raleigh	7	19	2,097	173	38	8.25%
	Free Guy Total		20	67	9,647	573	169	5.94%
	Respect	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	33	6	2.14%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,310	35	11	2.67%
		Raleigh	7	13	1,673	82	28	4.90%
	Respect Total		19	32	4,527	150	45	3.31%
T-7	The Night House	Jacksonville	5	8	811	3	0	0.37%
		Phoenix	5	8	878	2	0	0.23%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,246	7	0	0.56%
	The Night House Total		16	28	2,935	12	0	0.41%
	The Protégé	Jacksonville	5	8	970	7	3	0.72%
		Phoenix	6	9	1,370	6	4	0.44%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,423	7	-1	0.49%
	The Protégé Total		18	29	3,763	20	6	0.53%
T-8	Paw Patrol (Friday)	Jacksonville	3	15	1,751	15	5	0.86%
		Phoenix	6	17	2,698	40	11	1.48%
		Raleigh	3	11	1,111	52	7	4.68%
	Paw Patrol (Friday) Total		12	43	5,560	107	23	1.92%
	Reminiscence (Friday)	Jacksonville	5	18	2,646	5	2	0.19%
		Phoenix	6	21	2,824	6	4	0.21%
		Raleigh	7	27	3,637	0	0	0.00%
	Reminiscence (Friday) Total		18	66	9,107	11	6	0.12%

 

Free Guy had an okay day; not great by any means.  Fell off a little more from Jungle Cruise but increased the lead on Snake Eyes.  Those two comps are at 2.27m and 1.94m respectively. 

 

 

Don't Breathe 2 did well to improve against the horror comps, jumping from 733k to 880k on average (Forever Purge, Escape Room 2 & Old)

 

Respect has pulled a little ahead of Roadrunner, 150-138.  With the conflicting reports for Roadrunner's preview number, I'm not really sure where to put this one.  My gut says it'll have pretty good walkups and get to 500k.