The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Pretty safe to say that Deadline's "pessimistic" $19M projection might actually be an optimistic one. I won't be surprised if it ends up opening to numbers inbetween Old and Snake Eyes. I'm going with $15M myself, followed by another delaypocalypse and yet another hollow fall season for exhibitors.

[ThomasNicole]

I just wonder if Disney will see FG results and delay SC or if they will suddenly put on PA.

 

At least things should start to get better again by October and smaller movies doesn't need to move.

 

I'm very curious how the government will deal with this, at this point it's more than obvious that having so many people refusing the vaccine is unsustainable. If they don't solve this everyone can wait new waves consistenly, the virus won't disappear. Actually, let people spread Delta will only increase the chances of another worse variant surge.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I just wonder if Disney will see FG results and delay SC or if they will suddenly put on PA.

The current ticket sale kickoff being right after Free Guy's opening weekend is no coincidence.

[john2000]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I just wonder if Disney will see FG results and delay SC or if they will suddenly put on PA.

 

At least things should start to get better again by October and smaller movies doesn't need to move.

 

I'm very curious how the government will deal with this, at this point it's more than obvious that having so many people refusing the vaccine is unsustainable. If they don't solve this everyone can wait new waves consistenly, the virus won't disappear. Actually, let people spread Delta will only increase the chances of another worse variant surge.

That would be stupid from their part free guy could have very well underperform pre covid.

[titanic2187]

Can covid peak in 2-3 weeks and suddenly turn back like in UK? I doubt so, first USA vaccine coverage is so much lower than in UK, and even in UK, the case stop dropping in less than 2 weeks, so we can expect delta surge to linger for some weeks or even months in USA if American insists to retain their loser title. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

That would be stupid from their part free guy could have very well underperform pre covid.

I think any delay at this point is stupid to be honest. We're been dealing with this pandemic for 18 months now and things are still a big mess, it's time to everyone accept we still have many months ahead dealing with this, including studios which can't keep delaying things expecting for a miracle, they can put everything in 2022 and still face a new wave.

 

But despite my personal thoughts i can see they getting desperate and delaying SC / putting on PA. I only hope things really start to get better again by October to avoid any bigger freakout from studios.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think any delay at this point is stupid to be honest. We're been dealing with this pandemic for 18 months now and things are still a big mess, it's time to everyone accept we still have many months ahead dealing with this, including studios which can't keep delaying things expecting for a miracle, they can put everything in 2022 and still face a new wave.

 

But despite my personal thoughts i can see they getting desperate and delaying SC / putting on PA. I only hope things really start to get better again by October to avoid any bigger freakout from studios.

at this point i think that as long as lockdowns (nationwide) dont happen   in the major box office markets , we are not gonna see any more delays....

Edited August 10, 2021 by john2000

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think the real issue is that none of these current films are “must sees” that are “immune” to Delta headlines. It’s more worthwhile to risk for an actual event like GVK, F9 or Black Widow (opening weekend at least). Are people really going to leave the house, possibly with families, to see an original Ryan Reynolds movie about video games? They’re now more selective than ever, so doubtful. And that’s a problem because, genuinely, how many films are “must sees” this year? We’ll find out if Shang-Chi is 

[john2000]

in some more cheerfull news if the projections and covid trends hold then from mid-late aug we should start see a decrease in cases.....

 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think the real issue is that none of these current films are “must sees” that are “immune” to Delta headlines. It’s more worthwhile to risk for an actual event like GVK, F9 or Black Widow (opening weekend at least). Are people really going to leave the house, possibly with families, to see an original Ryan Reynolds movie about video games? They’re now more selective than ever, so doubtful. And that’s a problem because, genuinely, how many films are “must sees” this year? We’ll find out if Shang-Chi is 

This is also a good point. We're been talking about how only big movies will make people excited to go in a theater soon, but there are signals that the pandemic maybe made this happen faster.

 

It's sad thinking in smaller and original movies only finding audience on streaming, but right now sometimes it seems inevitable.

[john2000]

also so far the mon drops are very very normal so....... i want to remind everyone that when covid first hit the dailie figures were also impacted.... so far the dailes %wise are very very normal today too

Edited August 10, 2021 by john2000

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I imagine most people will simply wait out the 45 days. It's a new IP, so it doesn't have the FOMO factor for a franchise film.

 

I feel really disappointed right now. And right after Idris Elba was cast as Knuckles, too.

[Cmasterclay]

People were predicting like 15m for Free Guy a couple of weeks ago lol

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

People were predicting like 15m for Free Guy a couple of weeks ago lol

exatly 20-30 mill for free guy was never certain , people shouldnt blame solely covid bc of false expectations.......

[lorddemaxus]

I don't think this doing worse than this forum's weirdly high expectations has a lot to do with covid. I'll wait a couple more days until Thurs previews day tho (espescially want to see how good walkups are).

Edited August 10, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Cmasterclay]

Nothing's getting delayed till Shang Chi. They are pot committed on that one. If Shang Chi fails, alright, then we see some movement. But I saw a little bit of evidence today from my trusty epidemiologist friends that the wave may be cresting the tiniest bit....still too early to tell but promising given what happened in Europe.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

People were predicting like 15m for Free Guy a couple of weeks ago lol

Yeah, I think people got carried away after the good reviews which seemingly contributed to a presales bump.

 

But personally, the sales for all 3 movies near me are bleak. Free Guy is significantly behind both Jungle Cruise and Suicide Squad. 
 

COVID/Delta is a major deciding factor, no question. And that worries studios because how many undeniable films do they truly have this year? Casual moviegoing culture was inconsistent pre-pandemic and now the variants and streaming accessibility is causing real damage. 

[Legion Again]

I thought I was an optimist on Free Guy with like 20-30. If it comes in at 16 that doesn't exactly scream delta, it's still in the BOP range for instance.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

People were predicting like 15m for Free Guy a couple of weeks ago lol

Cool. Expectations change. And looking at the reviews, strong marketing muscle, and initial strong sales, my expectations changed. Maybe Delta isn’t the problem, but the collapse is still pretty weird IMO

[AJG]

52 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:

Nah, that shit's going dual release and Chapek will do anything to Papa Feige to make this happen.

 

I know people don't like me saying this, but even ScarJo isn't persuading me otherwise. And if you don't like me saying all this, just know you're free to ignore me.

Shang Chi releasing onthe big screen in 3 weeks as an exclusive might be the most shocking turn of events in modern BO history.
 

I’m gonna be in my seat at the cinema astonished.

 

I really don’t know why the first thing we thought people would do after a year of lockdowns was go to another building to sit in a room and do something we were doing at home just fine. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by AJG