The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Rumpot said:

Maybe this will catch some tailwinds from WestWorld popularity? Like IT with Stranger Things or World War Z with walking dead?

How are Blade Runner and Westworld anything alike? 

[Plain Old Tele]

I think BR2049 is gonna be relatively frontloaded (for an adult-aimed action/thriller). 

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang updates:

- American Made is bad, I mean bad. Almost downright horrible. Barely across 10k in presales

- Flatliners is a third of American Made

- My little pony is behind where Ninjago was at the same point in time

- Thor added almost nothing since the last update, to be expected since that's how CBMs sell, tickets up front and then drips till release week, from next week we can start the comparison with Guardians 2 as the tickets for Guardians went on sale at about this time before release 

- BR2049 is big, not IT big but big nonetheless. It's ahead of TF5, Dunkirk, Covfefe and more than double Kingsman at the same point in time 

do you remember how The Accountant was performing last year?  any other Sept/Oct releases of 2016??

[grim22]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang updates:

- American Made is bad, I mean bad. Almost downright horrible. Barely across 10k in presales

- Flatliners is a third of American Made

- My little pony is behind where Ninjago was at the same point in time

- Thor added almost nothing since the last update, to be expected since that's how CBMs sell, tickets up front and then drips till release week, from next week we can start the comparison with Guardians 2 as the tickets for Guardians went on sale at about this time before release 

- BR2049 is big, not IT big but big nonetheless. It's ahead of TF5, Dunkirk, Covfefe and more than double Kingsman at the same point in time 

 

Found somewhat of a Thor comp (although not exact in the least considering the difference in scale), Thor presales are at 55% of Civil War at roughly the same point in time (March 22 for a May 5 release). Guardians 2 tickets went on sale on March 25 for a May 6 release so that comp won't be relevant till at least post Blade Runner release.

[keysersoze123]

35 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Found somewhat of a Thor comp (although not exact in the least considering the difference in scale), Thor presales are at 55% of Civil War at roughly the same point in time (March 22 for a May 5 release). Guardians 2 tickets went on sale on March 25 for a May 6 release so that comp won't be relevant till at least post Blade Runner release.

 

its kind of expected. It will have rabid fanbase but will play slightly more limited to Avengers driven Civil War. Guardians would be better comp once we have numbers around similar timeframes. 

 

Any idea when JL tickets are going on sale. WB does not start early(except TDKR where some Imax theaters started 6 months before release !!!!)

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any idea when JL tickets are going on sale. WB does not start early(except TDKR where some Imax theaters started 6 months before release !!!!)

Judging by BvS, SS and WW - all of whose tickets went on sale 3-4 weeks before release, I would guess October 20-27 timeframe.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Judging by BvS, SS and WW - all of whose tickets went on sale 3-4 weeks before release, I would guess October 20-27 timeframe.

I wonder if they'll have the presales at the same time worldwide? Thor had presales in Australia before UK and US for example and Murder on the Orient Express is already on sale in the UK. 

Edited September 25, 2017 by Jonwo

[DAJK]

I'm not sure what to predict at my theatre this week, I'm barely beating my manager for the year and I can't afford to lose this week after going really high on Kingsman😰

 

@grim22, do you think American Made is going to bomb big time? Or still do mid-teens #'s?

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if they'll have the presales at the same time worldwide? Thor had presales in Australia before UK and US for example and Murder on the Orient is already on sale in the UK. 

Guessing it won't be the same time. Even BvS, SS and WW tickets went on sale in the UK before the US.

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'm not sure what to predict at my theatre this week, I'm barely beating my manager for the year and I can't afford to lose this week after going really high on Kingsman😰

 

@grim22, do you think American Made is going to bomb big time? Or still do mid-teens #'s?

The last movie to have sales this low as The House (although AM is almost double The House at the same point in time, but we aren't talking about big numbers here)

[WrathOfHan]

If AM opens under 15M, I'm going to blame Universal for having a month between the OS and DOM releases.

[harsh3090416]

So the long range forecast is out for both Thor and Justice League. I think they are being too conservative for both the movies. I feel like Thor will do above around 300 and Justice League will be closer to 500 mil. Are they being conservative because of too many event movies coming out so closely to each other in Nov/Dec?

 

11/3/2017

Thor: Ragnarok

$100,000,000

$250,000,000

Disney

 

11/17/2017

Justice League

$150,000,000

NEW

$330,000,000

NEW

Warner Bros.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Guessing it won't be the same time. Even BvS, SS and WW tickets went on sale in the UK before the US.

It's a bit weird that presales are at different times, think the only one that was the same time was TFA but I guess it's harder to coordinate.

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If AM opens under 15M, I'm going to blame Universal for having a month between the OS and DOM releases.

It's opening UNDER American assassin. that one had the book fans and o'brien stans.  AM has nothing really. how is the promo in the states?

[HesAPooka]

48 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If AM opens under 15M, I'm going to blame Universal for having a month between the OS and DOM releases.

just remember The Mummy presales were almost non existent (something like 12% of Alien Covenant) and still opened to 32m despite being the most trashed worst reviewed movie of the summer.

 

[Mojoguy]

feel like Thor will do above around 300 and Justice League will be closer to 500 mil.

Feels like there was much more hype for BvS than what we have now for JL.

[KeepItU25071906]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Feels like there was much more hype for BvS than what we have now for JL.

It's wrong feel. Promo-campaign even doesn't start.

 

Last year I've heard similar complaints in January about BvS marketing.

[That One Girl]

AM is gonna be very walkup heavy, low presales don't mean jack shit.

[YM!]

1 hour ago, harsh3090416 said:

So the long range forecast is out for both Thor and Justice League. I think they are being too conservative for both the movies. I feel like Thor will do above around 300 and Justice League will be closer to 500 mil. Are they being conservative because of too many event movies coming out so closely to each other in Nov/Dec?

 

11/3/2017

Thor: Ragnarok

$100,000,000

$250,000,000

Disney

 

11/17/2017

Justice League

$150,000,000

NEW

$330,000,000

NEW

Warner Bros.

You seem familiar.

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

It's wrong feel. Promo-campaign even doesn't start.

 

Last year I've heard similar complaints in January about BvS marketing.

And WW's marketing, all those articles about how WB wasn't promoting it. 

[Alli]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Eh, AM is a comedy, so it probably doesn't matter a whole lot at the moment.

Quote

Guys, mother! is a horror film. It's perfectly normal if presales don't pick up until tomorrow.