The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

So my guy finally got back to me and unfortunately, still no concrete numbers to give me, but they are internally going with $190m.  

 

He also thinks that's high based on his location, unless the walk ups are strong.

 

 

At this point all we have are the MTC numbers , that helps to form somewhat of a general picture.

Edited December 13, 2021 by john2000

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

So my guy finally got back to me and unfortunately, still no concrete numbers to give me, but they are internally going with $190m.  

 

He also thinks that's high based on his location, unless the walk ups are strong.

 

 

That definitely feels low to me based on all the numbers we are seeing in this thread. Is his location in my area?

Edited December 13, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

That definitely feels low to me based on all the numbers we are seeing in this thread. Is his location in my area?

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Wow! Even I have to say that based on what our trackers are seeing, Deadline is really low. Don’t they have experts who can see the same data? Maybe they’re predicting that the movie will be extremely presales heavy due to the pandemic. I think some like baumer think the same thing. We’ll just have to wait and see. Will be exciting to see how things develop. 

Deadline literally does not even try to release accurate predictions. It’s simply not a goal to begin with for them. There is a reason I have to repeat over and over that deadline/official tracking isn’t worth the pixels its displayed on.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

 

Well, we do have limited data points, and ZackM's MTC1 tracker is new enough that it might not perfectly align with keyzersoze's historical MTC1 data.

 

And I've been harping forever now about how pre-2020 comps Are Not To Be Trusted.

 

On the other hand, katnisscinplex's numbers do suggest that other areas of the country are over-performing their 2021 baseline, so who knows.  

 

On the other other hand, realizing that are indeed flying a bit more blind than we have been in literally months and being a little bit conservative in our expectations might not be a bad thing at all.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Deep Water going to streaming is depressing. Have fun with Kingsman 8 and Venom 10, I guess

 

How bad is the Nightmare Alley tracking? I assume that is another bomb

DW always looked like a streamer, guess they could have tried hybrid if they wanted to support theaters but it would do like 5M full run vs 8M if exclusive or some shit.   
 

Kingman 3 looks floptacular, dead franchise. Don’t think Venom goes past 5.
 

NA certainly looks destined to bomb from the trailer and discussion around it, haven’t checked PS or anything. 

[ZackM]

I'll check my Michigan numbers tonight and then see how they compare to TROS.  That will at least be a one-to-one data set.

[Ronin46]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

 

I guess the thing thats much harder to predict is going to be how the weekend stacks up. Seems a given we are going to get a 45-50M preview and  we sort of expect a 4.5 to 5 multiplier from there but its a 3pm preview start and its a huge preview and people dont want the movie to be spoiled so its going to be front loaded. So I guess its possible we get a low 4 multiplier. Maybe we get the hardcores going early and some of the older audience might wait a few days and see it midweek.

But I have a hard time not thinking its heading to 200M and closer to 250.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, we do have limited data points, and ZackM's MTC1 tracker is new enough that it might not perfectly align with keyzersoze's historical MTC1 data.

 

And I've been harping forever now about how pre-2020 comps Are Not To Be Trusted.

 

On the other hand, katnisscinplex's numbers do suggest that other areas of the country are over-performing their 2021 baseline, so who knows.  

 

On the other other hand, realizing that are indeed flying a bit more blind than we have been in literally months and being a little bit conservative in our expectations might not be a bad thing at all.

It's basically the same data as what Keyser had been getting before NWH. Everything lines up quite well. Maybe some things are slightly different but I'm sure that there's nothing big off there. Big difference is that coverage is higher now than what we had then, but there are ways to estimate that as well. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Menor

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

DW always looked like a streamer, guess they could have tried hybrid if they wanted to support theaters but it would do like 5M full run vs 8M if exclusive or some shit.   
 

Kingman 3 looks floptacular, dead franchise. Don’t think Venom goes past 5.
 

NA certainly looks destined to bomb from the trailer and discussion around it, haven’t checked PS or anything. 

At least Deep Water would have had the option to be seen in theaters. Release during a desolate weekend in Jan or Feb in 2k theaters and get like a 3m OW. VOD or streaming few weeks after

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

Copy. All I can say in that regards is it underperformed my location on EG by about 20% on a showtime for showtime basis. I’ll review it in a couple of hours and see what it looks like.

Edited December 13, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, we do have limited data points, and ZackM's MTC1 tracker is new enough that it might not perfectly align with keyzersoze's historical MTC1 data.

 

And I've been harping forever now about how pre-2020 comps Are Not To Be Trusted.

 

On the other hand, katnisscinplex's numbers do suggest that other areas of the country are over-performing their 2021 baseline, so who knows.  

 

On the other other hand, realizing that are indeed flying a bit more blind than we have been in literally months and being a little bit conservative in our expectations might not be a bad thing at all.

 

I heartily agree!

 

This is bigger than anything in 2 years and with the way certain demos have kinda stopped going to the theater, I'm a tad skeptical that this will fall right in line with comps from 2 years ago.  

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal (Local)

 

(12.8.21) (Noon)
(Total) 2206/5069 = 34.52%
(RPX)  798/960 = 83.125%
(Non RPX)  1408/ 4109 = 34.26%
    
(12.13.21) (4:30pm)
(Total)  2682/6051 = 46.6%
(RPX) 805/960 = 83.85%
(Non RPX)  1722/5091 = 33.82%

COMPS

AEG: (4.22.19) Monday

3,948/4,736  = 83.36%  = $40.76m

(1,315 seats less than SM. AEG would add another 763 seats by Wed and be at 88.35% capacity which includes 5% wheelchair seats - so probably less than 7% seats open as of Wed. I didn't do a Thur count)

SW: TROS: (Monday)

2106/4291 - 49.08%  =  $50.94m

(SW would add another 256 seats on Wed for a 51.26% capacity)

Edited December 13, 2021 by TalismanRing

[filmlover]

Deep Water's getting dumped on streaming because 1) the two stars were a couple and have broken up between the time the movie was made and all the delays that have been caused by the pandemic, meaning zero chance for any promo and 2) it's (probably) bad. Better to just offload it for clicks and save themselves the money and the embarrassment.

Edited December 13, 2021 by filmlover

[Tinalera]

The Matrix Resurrections 

Greater Toronto Area, Ontario

Dec 22 taken Dec 13

24 theatres

113 shows

 

Total sold 2851 (dec 10 553)

Total Remaining 27277 (dec 10 17920)

total seats 30128

Percentage 9.46 percent

 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I heartily agree!

 

This is bigger than anything in 2 years and with the way certain demos have kinda stopped going to the theater, I'm a tad skeptical that this will fall right in line with comps from 2 years ago.  

 

I think those demos are more likely to show their absence over the w/e - especially family and kids so  I'd expect the internal multiplier to be lower.   Though maybe not as front loaded as a SW film

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, we do have limited data points, and ZackM's MTC1 tracker is new enough that it might not perfectly align with keyzersoze's historical MTC1 data.

 

And I've been harping forever now about how pre-2020 comps Are Not To Be Trusted.

 

On the other hand, katnisscinplex's numbers do suggest that other areas of the country are over-performing their 2021 baseline, so who knows.  

 

On the other other hand, realizing that are indeed flying a bit more blind than we have been in literally months and being a little bit conservative in our expectations might not be a bad thing at all.

 

We haven't had a movie so big that is also having MTC 1/2 multi-huge ticket deals (between the Amazon Pay Atom deal today and then tomorrow's TMobile Atom one)...if I was iffy on a weekend number, it would be b/c I literally don't know how high those 2 might overindex vs the rest of theaters, and we tend to only see mostly MTC 1/2 data...and I don't know how much those 2 might pull in presales that would have been walk ups...

 

It's why, even though it seems ridiculous to me sitting here, I'm not changing my contest numbers:).  If I do, it means it will hit the low ones I have now, and I'd rather see the high ones I used to have (aka, why jinx it:)...

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal (Local) 

 

Nightmare Alley (4:30pm)

 

Three shows in including the Early Wed show

 

8/697

[Menor the Destroyer]

26 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Let's just say there is a gulf between what you are seeing and what he is seeing to the pointe where I don't know what to believe anymore!

I'm inclined to think that this one location is just underperforming. I mean we have all our regional comps + scrapers pointing to a preview number that would very likely put this north of 200. Of course, there is a lot more uncertainty here than pre-Covid, but still. 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Menor

[Eric the Ape]

Moderation

 

Not the Deep Water thread. I understand the frustrations, but there's no reason to talk about it in this thread.