The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZackM]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

This is the movie I expect to sell lots of child tickets on saturday. ATP will be lower for sure. We will know for sure on saturday based on comscore data that @charlie Jatinder should hopefully track. 

 

Exciting weekend coming up for sure. 

For sure.  But as a baseline this at least gives us an idea of how ticket sales are skewing as far as time and region go.

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

I feel though the weekend will not get to crazy

Depends on what “not too crazy” is for you lol. This thing could still be the 2nd biggest opener ever, and the numbers we’ve gotten today and the rates of increase are encouraging. I don’t want to say anything is “locked” yet but it would surprise me if NWH fell below TLJ’s OW. If reviews are looking good tonight/tomorrow, nothing will slow it down.

[Torontofan]

6 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Depends on what “not too crazy” is for you lol. This thing could still be the 2nd biggest opener ever, and the numbers we’ve gotten today and the rates of increase are encouraging. I don’t want to say anything is “locked” yet but it would surprise me if NWH fell below TLJ’s OW. If reviews are looking good tonight/tomorrow, nothing will slow it down.

 

 

I mean it could open around 200 million and just have good legs I feel. 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

 

 

I mean it could open around 200 million and just have good legs I feel. 

**me when I see $200 million**
 

[el sid]

Due to many Sell Outs (e.g. in NY it were 5 today plus 4 shows were „Almost Full“ which means 1-3 seats are still free - and that was only for Thursday) it made no sense to count the presales for Thursday or Friday. So I again took the Sunday.

NWH, counted today at 11am EST for Sunday, Dec 19 (6 days to go):
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.338 (16 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2.043 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 574 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 217 (9 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 200 (13 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.277 (22 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.984 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 7.633

Up since my last count 13 days ago: 72%. 
Comps: SC had on Thursday for Friday (= 1 day to go) 3.740 sold tickets = NWH = x2.04 with 5 days left to increase the lead (and that for a Sunday and not the first full day),
TSS had also on Thursday for Friday 1.560 sold tickets,

F9 had on Thursday for Friday 3.585 sold tickets
and Eternals had on Thursday for Friday 4.090 sold tickets.
Venom 2 had on Friday for Friday (= 0 days left) 4.362 sold tickets = NWH = x1.75 with 6 days left to increase the lead. So NWH will very probably more than double, maybe triple the presales of Venom 2 when both films have 0 days left (but keep in mind that Venom 2 must have had good walk-ups).
Overall NWH has reached a level where Idk how to interpret it. Firstly I want to see how much NWH can still increase over the next days, maybe that's a small help.

Edited December 13, 2021 by el sid

[Landon1195]

I'm expecting a $230M OW, just in between The Last Jedi and The Force Awakens. 

[Ronin46]

Deadline:

 

We also hear that Deep Water is being sent to streaming given the feeble theatrical marketplace for adult fare right now; Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story being the latest to underperform with a $10.5M opening. To date, and boosted by the Thanksgiving holiday, MGM/UAR’s star-studded House of Gucci is the only drama to break through with a current running domestic B.O. of $41M. Meanwhile, fanboy fare is king with Sony/Disney/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home eyeing a $135M-$155M opening weekend.

 

 

Close to 100 off I think.  

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

Meanwhile, fanboy fare is king with Sony/Disney/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home eyeing a $135M-$155M opening weekend.

 

 

Close to 100 off I think. 

Damn. Deadline isn’t even trying with this one 🤣

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

Any MTC update ?

Its all @ZackM. Neither Menor nor me are able to track Spidey at MTCs. MTC2 is gone for now. No one is able to crack the puzzle. At least Zack has MTC1 data which helps us anchor our predictions. 

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Deadline:

 

We also hear that Deep Water is being sent to streaming given the feeble theatrical marketplace for adult fare right now; Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story being the latest to underperform with a $10.5M opening. To date, and boosted by the Thanksgiving holiday, MGM/UAR’s star-studded House of Gucci is the only drama to break through with a current running domestic B.O. of $41M. Meanwhile, fanboy fare is king with Sony/Disney/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home eyeing a $135M-$155M opening weekend.

 

 

Close to 100 off I think.  

They overestimate the opening day quite a bit....

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

They overestimate the opening day quite a bit....

 

Not by that much.

 

50 + 70 for 120 is not to far off.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

They overestimate the opening day quite a bit....

[john2000]

@Multiverse of XXR @Ronin46 true.

[Tinalera]

Was going to do Sing 2 Today for Greater Toronto Area, but seeing how the numbers have barely budged in general since my last check (I mean still a bunch of zeros as far as seat sales) Ill give it another day or two. Im not sure its quite the same demo as Spidey in that regard, but I think that we may not see a large build up of presales, but it will be something that fills as we get into the actual Holiday time. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Deep Water going to streaming is depressing. Have fun with Kingsman 8 and Venom 10, I guess

 

How bad is the Nightmare Alley tracking? I assume that is another bomb

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Deep Water going to streaming is depressing. Have fun with Kingsman 8 and Venom 10, I guess

 

How bad is the Nightmare Alley tracking? I assume that is another bomb

Is The King's Man going to do well though? Feels like another 47 Ronin/Assassin's Creed-style dump.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Wow! Even I have to say that based on what our trackers are seeing, Deadline is really low. Don’t they have experts who can see the same data? Maybe they’re predicting that the movie will be extremely presales heavy due to the pandemic. I think some like baumer think the same thing. We’ll just have to wait and see. Will be exciting to see how things develop. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Is The King's Man going to do well though? Feels like another 47 Ronin/Assassin's Creed-style dump.

Fox still seems somewhat committed to Kings Man and I've seen the trailer about 8 times in theaters during last few months. It might be ok enough

[Deep Wang]

So my guy finally got back to me and unfortunately, still no concrete numbers to give me, but they are internally going with $190m.  

 

He also thinks that's high based on his location, unless the walk ups are strong.

 

 

[Momori]

Deadline always low balling.