The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Both are being overpredicted by each of their fanbase.

I wonder what the predictions are for both the movies in the summer/winter game? 

Does anyone with access get the list please?

Edited October 6, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

No. Rangarok has a likely chance for $300M and also JL is very likely for $400M but if you are thinking over $350M for Thor and over $500M for JL, your hype is blinding you.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I wonder what the predictions are for both the movies in the summer/winter game? 

Does anyone with access get the list please?

I'll write a list at the end of the deadline but the range for Thor is $275M-$360M most around $275M-$310M and JL is $288M-$425M most $350M-$375M.

Edited October 6, 2017 by YourMother

[keysersoze123]

@grim22 do we now have data to

compare Thor 3 and guardians 2. I assume guardians PS also had started by this time.

[DlAMONDZ]

8 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Speaking of this, wasn't there a subscriber-exclusive BOPro Long-Range Forecast from a few months ago predicting $250M OW/$820M DOM?

Anything under 900m is a flop imo

[ZeeSoh]

3 hours ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Anything under 900m is a flop imo

I dont know if you're joking or not but I am gonna treat it as such because that notion is beyond ridiculous. 

 

On another note. The 2nd movie in the PT and OT fell by 30 and 32% domestically. If this follows the trend then it will do something like 650-660 dom. 

 

The 3rd movie in both the trilogies rose by 125 and 120% for the PT and OT respectively. So if this trilogy follows the trend then the last movie might do something like 780-820. 

 

Both the previous trilogies have been remarkably consistent in their rise/fall numbers.  Lets see if this one follows or not

[MCKillswitch123]

3 hours ago, DlAMONDZ said:

Anything under 900m is a flop imo

Is everything you say absolutely ridiculous?

 

You are aware that Force Awakens was literally the only movie to pull 900M DOM to date; and it took the return of a franchise like Star Wars + a 10 year sabbatical from any movies + a 30 year separation between Return Of The Jedi and TFA + a pitch perfect marketing campaign + rave reviews and wom to get to those numbers, right? And sequels to massive hits always tend to drop. If TLJ manages to beat Avatar's 700+, it'll already be a gigantic success. 

[George Parr]

22 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Both the previous trilogies have been remarkably consistent in their rise/fall numbers.  Lets see if this one follows or not

That's more of a coincidence, I think.

 

Things are rather confusing due to the multitude of re-releases that were common back in the days. If you compare the original release of ESB to the original release of RotJ and compare the result of that to the jump between AOTC and ROTS, then ROTJ jumped a far higher percentage than ROTS did. If you compare the original release of ROTJ to the amount ESB had made until the release of ROTJ, than ROTS had a far bigger jump than ROTJ.

 

Counting the drops between the early movies is even worse. ANH had the original release run straight into a re-release, followed by another re-release before ESB came out, with another one after ESB came out. ESB itself had two re-releases before ROTJ came out, while ROTJ had a re-release in 1984. That doesn't even include the Special Editions. Which of these should one take to compare?

 

 

I do agree that this trilogy might roughly follow the trend of the last one though. A sizeable drop for VIII, and a slight increase for IX.

[Rumpot]

21 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

But are they gonna do it on Fri/Sat/Sun?  Or go to matinees Friday?  If the movie can only sell out the 6-8pm slots, it's not like theaters are giving it 12 showings at those times...

 

And "cerebral" and "looong" and "sequel" are not words that normally brings in the GA fan not already invested...so, I wouldn't get my hopes too high on a huge multiplier...I'm still seeing this playing like a better reviewed Alien Covenant and 8.5x-10.5x of that $4M brings the movie to $34M-$42M...I'd think the $42M more likely b/c fans aren't nearly as mixed or unhappy and critics were happier, but I don't think this gets non-sequel like weekend sci-fi multipliers...

 

Maybe it does...again, I haven't see #1, so I'm probably not the best estimator...but...

Ok.. your predictions are very underrated!  I see your prowess extends beyond predicting animated movies..

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Ok.. your predictions are very underrated!  I see your prowess extends beyond predicting animated movies..

Yeah, I do supers well, too:)...when I'm not too invested...

 

But if it's a comedy, please blow off all my thoughts, b/c I will flub them royally:)...until I'm like a broken clock (which gets to be right sometimes;)...

[Gokira2012]

I have returned,,.... let the stanning begin

[Rumpot]

From what I've observed Thursday through today is that Blade Runner IMAX showings filling up for the most part and Dolby not bad either.  Regular showings much less so though and RealD is completely pathetic.  People who are going are doing premium, non-3D

[Rumpot]

6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yeah, I do supers well, too:)...when I'm not too invested...

 

But if it's a comedy, please blow off all my thoughts, b/c I will flub them royally:)...until I'm like a broken clock (which gets to be right sometimes;)...

I think in the last year I've really expanded my movie horizons and mistakenly thought the rest of the country came with me...

[Rumpot]

I follow Google trends closely, find it fascinating.  One noteworthy point for Blade Runner is today is trending higher than yesterday which doesn't happen often (64 at 440pm EST today vs 45 at 440pm EST yesterday).  Friday - day of release is almost always the highest trending day with only the exception of IT that I've seen where Saturday was 100 compared to Friday ~90 (I'm sure there are others) while usually Saturday is a 70 or 80 vs 100 on Friday.

*caveat is it's only 440pm so not surprising it is trending higher vs Friday 440pm when everyone still at work - so will have to see if it continues and peaks higher than yesterday overall.

 

Google trends is also neat in seeing how states are trending relative to each other and then even zooming in on how cities in those states are trending.  For Blade Runner it is very west coast biased- Washington is #1 (100), California #2 at 93, Oregon #3 with 91, Vermont #4 with 84, DC #5 with 79. 

 

Other Pertinent states/large cities - NY is #11 (but as the largest city New York, NY is only #4 in New York with Watertown, Syracuse, and Rochester higher), Texas is #24 (Austin is 100 while bigger cities like San Antonio and Houston are 63 and 56), Pennsylvania is weak at #38 (breakdown shows Philadelphia at #4 which is not good since it's the biggest) and Ohio is #42.

--this is pretty weak for NY, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio which are key markets and probably where it really underperformed.  NY and Pennsylvania are most surprising to me.

 

Today - Ohio is flat from yesterday, but Pennsylvania and NY (Specifically NYC) are trending up and so is Texas.  

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 1-d&geo=US&q=blade runner

 

[FlashMaster659]

First pre-sale #s for TLJ: $22.44.

Just bought my tickets to The Last Jedi! #StarWars pic.twitter.com/PtPOujXOyQ

— Stefan Katsanos (@skatsanosusa) October 7, 2017

Edited October 7, 2017 by FlashMaster659

[The Panda]

On 10/6/2017 at 4:52 PM, YourMother said:

No. Rangarok has a likely chance for $300M and also JL is very likely for $400M but if you are thinking over $350M for Thor and over $500M for JL, your hype is blinding you.

I wouldn't say 300m for Thor is likely, and I wouldn't say anything above BvS for JL is likely.

[raegr]

9 minutes ago, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said:

I wouldn't say 300m for Thor is likely, and I wouldn't say anything above BvS for JL is likely.

The bare minimum for BvS is not likely for JL. A historically frontloaded, terribly received and reviled movie?

 

Okay. 

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, raegr said:

The bare minimum for BvS is not likely for JL. A historically frontloaded, terribly received and reviled movie?

 

Okay. 

If JL is more BVS with audiences or hype isn't there in the next few weeks/weak presales (which I doubt), then yes it's possible.

[The Panda]

8 minutes ago, raegr said:

The bare minimum for BvS is not likely for JL. A historically frontloaded, terribly received and reviled movie?

 

Okay. 

High competition, no guarantee JL will receive WW receptions instead of BvS/SS/MoS reception, GA may still have a stigma, more fanboy oriented so more frontloaded.

 

WW is the biggest thing going for it, but it also went after a different kind of audience that may not all show back up for a JL movie.

[ZeeSoh]

13 minutes ago, raegr said:

The bare minimum for BvS is not likely for JL. A historically frontloaded, terribly received and reviled movie?

 

Okay. 

While I dont think JL will be as critically panned or will have historicslly bad legs but until the movie comes out we cannot say how the movie will be received or how its legs would be. The hype for BvS was far more than JL. 

 

That being said I think JL should open higher than BvS and get to 400 IMO