The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Rebeccas]

6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

And what, if it behaves exactly like a SW movie?

The low pre-sale doesn't mean it's behaving like a Marvel movie though.. we have to wait until Saturday to see if it can get the monster walk-ups that Marvel gets. If its presales are Marvel-esque but walk-ups are SW-esque then its in deep shit.

[WrathOfHan]

Reviews in 2 hours are either going to help presales a tiny bit or hurt it to the point where sub-100M for the 3 day is back in range IMO. The buzz just isn’t there compared to Rogue One

[Sam]

Pre-sales are like Marvel and then if it behaves like Star Wars over the weekend, then Solo is not a really smart one, huh? 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

If it has a RO like multiplier - easily the best of the rest bunch  that's about a $115m 3 day

I think it might have a stronger opening night to opening weekend internal multiplier if people are waiting for WOM during the OW before deciding whether or not to check it out.

 

There is a pool of the public out there on the fence about the movie.  I think that's pretty undeniable  The major question is:  Can they be pursuaded to show up if there is good WOM from the initial shows.

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

Pre-sales are like Marvel and then if it behaves like Star Wars over the weekend, then Solo is not a really smart one, huh? 

Basically the worst of both worlds.

[Poseidon]

I'm still completely confused by the trailer clicks for Solo. I'm not sure I have ever seen anything like this for a movie, that is supposed to open to 170m in 10 days.

 

It added around 500k clicks on YT in the last week, and the clicks were already low to begin with. 

[Nova]

Solo will depend on the reviews imo. I think there's a large subset of folks who are still on the fence about. If it gets good reviews, presales will see an up tick. If the reviews aren't good then who knows where it'll open up. 

Edited May 15, 2018 by Nova

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Solo will depend on the reviews imo. I think there's a large subset of folks who are still on the fence about. If it gets good reviews, presales will see an up tick. If the reviews aren't good then who knows where it'll open up. 

What if they're just FINE.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

What if they're just FINE.

Preaales are screwed. It needs strong reactions to get hype going.

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Reviews in 2 hours are either going to help presales a tiny bit or hurt it to the point where sub-100M for the 3 day is back in range IMO. The buzz just isn’t there compared to Rogue One

 

I feel like all of your predictions nowadays are either wildly overpredicting or underpredicting.

Edited May 15, 2018 by That One Guy

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

What if they're just FINE.

It needs strong reviews. I'd say a fresh RT score will do the trick. If they're just fine I don't think presales will go any which way and at that point in time it'll be up to WOM from audiences on how it does 

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

Solo will depend on the reviews imo. I think there's a large subset of folks who are still on the fence about. If it gets good reviews, presales will see an up tick. If the reviews aren't good then who knows where it'll open up. 

But wouldn't the large subset of people on the fence be those upset about TLJ and that got great reviews. 

[FantasticBeasts]

Solo will be the verification of what some of us have said for too long that there will be an oversaturation of SW films.

[Rebeccas]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

But wouldn't the large subset of people on the fence be those upset about TLJ and that got great reviews. 

Maybe there's a different subset of fans who don't care about TLJ but are just on the fence about a not-Harrison Ford Han Solo?

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

But wouldn't the large subset of people on the fence be those upset about TLJ and that got great reviews. 

I'm not talking about those that hated TLJ. I'm talking about those who aren't interested in a Han Solo origin story for whatever reason 

[Poseidon]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Solo will be the verification of what some of us have said for too long that there will be an oversaturation of SW films.

Or maybe a combination of oversaturation and the fact, that the other SW movies were first choice by a mile, while Solo might even be 3rd choice in May for the GA.

 

[FantasticBeasts]

1 minute ago, Poseidon said:

Or maybe a combination of oversaturation and the fact, that the other SW movies were first choice by a mile, while Solo might even be 3rd choice in May for the GA.

 

All of that.

They should have released a SW movie every christmas and after they are done start with the spinoff stuff. Or maybe 1 franchise entry then next year a spinoff the next year franchise entry and so on..

This new phase has already harmed the SW brand long-term.

[LonePirate]

The AMC I frequent has 19 showings of Deadpool on Thursday evening/night. AIW is down to 11 total for that same day. Friday showtimes have not been posted in full as of yet. 

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

The low pre-sale doesn't mean it's behaving like a Marvel movie though.. we have to wait until Saturday to see if it can get the monster walk-ups that Marvel gets. If its presales are Marvel-esque but walk-ups are SW-esque then its in deep shit.

Yeah, it’s not a good sign at all and trying to spin this with “if it behaves Ike marvel” makes zero sense. Maybe if it’s actually a good film it might ,MIGHT, work more like a fun summer sci-fi adventure film, like something similar to gotg, than a fanboy driven Star Wars film but that remains to be seen and it will be facing big competition.

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Yeah, it’s not a good sign at all and trying to spin this with “if it behaves Ike marvel” makes zero sense. Maybe if it’s actually a good film it might ,MIGHT, work more like a fun summer sci-fi adventure film, like something similar to gotg, than a fanboy driven Star Wars film but that remains to be seen and it will be facing big competition.

Yeah I mean it's a prequel in a hugely fan-driven franchise.. I feel like that lends itself to heavy pre-sales?