The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

My theater has shows currently scheduled till 9 PM IIRC (might be 9:30). The 2D shows are selling well, but outside of the 7 PM 3D, the other 3D shows are VERY quiet. Rogue One had a lot more showtimes but was filling up 3D shows

[YM!]

Been behind on tracking but I have two things to say. 

1.) Solo is seeling well naturally but has less Thursday showtimes than either Panther, IW, or even DP2. It has 5 and if my memory is correct is the same amount as JL and T:R

 

2.) Incredibles 2 is definitely going to be the biggest selling family film here surpassing DM3 and Coco soon at their starting points.

[Sam]

I think the problems with Solo’s presales at my local theaters are about the same as what our members been posting here.

 

Prime night time showings (7-10p) selling well, I see 80% capacity in lots of them. But it’s dead in all other time slots. And the number of showtimes is lower than DP2 at same point.

 

Gonna see if that can change and pick up big time around Tuesday or so, like it should.

[Cap]

A quick glance at The Love Seat Recliner theater for Solo's Thursday is:

 

7:00PM - 36/50

7:30PM - 36/78

8:00PM - 22/78

8:30PM - 03/50

9:00PM - 00/50

9:30PM - 02/50

 

99/356 (27.80%)

 

Infinity War was at:

32.02% on 4/14/2018 (9 Days Out)

42.97% on 4/20/2018 (3 Days Out)

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

I think the problems with Solo’s presales at my local theaters are about the same as what our members been posting here.

 

Prime night time showings (7-10p) selling well, I see 80% capacity in lots of them. But it’s dead in all other time slots. And the number of showtimes is lower than DP2 at same point.

 

Gonna see if that can change and pick up big time around Tuesday or so, like it should.

DP2 was over estimated in NYC as concerned numbers of showing.  It had the same amount as CW and BP and 30% more than GOTG2 and 40% more than Thor: R.  That may have been a result of the schedule though with 3 sparse weeks after A:IW opened.  I expect Solo to get fewer showings even if theaters expect it to the same or better than DP.  

[Sam]

34 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

DP2 was over estimated in NYC as concerned numbers of showing.  It had the same amount as CW and BP and 30% more than GOTG2 and 40% more than Thor: R.  That may have been a result of the schedule though with 3 sparse weeks after A:IW opened.  I expect Solo to get fewer showings even if theaters expect it to the same or better than DP.  

Number of showtimes for DP2 at my local theaters was about on par with GOTG2, which is why comparable presales point me to 19M predicts for its Thu previews.

 

Considering the ways the weekend has been going for DP2, seems like my area was a pretty good representation for Sat as well. 

 

As for Solo, to have number of showtimes both under DP2 and GOTG2 is just not a good sign to me. Especially for a movie in the SW franchise no less. 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Sam said:

Number of showtimes for DP2 at my local theaters was about on par with GOTG2, which is why comparable presales point me to 19M predicts for its Thu previews.

 

Considering the ways the weekend has been going for DP2, seems like my area was a pretty good representation for Sat as well. 

 

As for Solo, to have number of showtimes both under DP2 and GOTG2 is just not a good sign to me. Especially for a movie in the SW franchise no less. 

That's where my concern is. While DP2 proved to be incredibly front loaded this weekend, it's still worrying to me at least to see a Star Wars film fall behind DP2 in terms of presales/showtimes. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

That's where my concern is. While DP2 proved to be incredibly front loaded this weekend, it's still worrying to me at least to see a Star Wars film fall behind DP2 in terms of presales/showtimes. 

A recent SW film would kill for that DP2 w/e multiplier.   I think it needs $20m+ in previews to have shot at $120m 3 day and even that's a stretch with a Sunday boost from MD with how front loaded they typically are.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

A recent SW film would kill for that DP2 w/e multiplier.   I think it needs $20m+ in previews to have shot at $120m 3 day and even that's a stretch with a Sunday boost from MD with how front loaded they typically are.

That's what I'm saying. As heavily front loaded as DP2 was it's still not as frontloaded as a typical Star Wars film. So for Solo to be lagging behind DP2 at least in my area, it's not a good sign.

 

[IceFire9yt]

Well, I'd guess it'd less preview heavy than Rogue One, especially with Memorial Day boosting Sunday.  Still, if it's Thursday previews are lower than Deadpool's... I hesitate to say this but it seems like a 100M 3-day OW would not be guaranteed.

[TalismanRing]

To copy a bit what I posted in the Solo thread

 

RO did $29m to get a $155m 3 day (5.34x).  It didn't have a MD Monday but it had an early holiday buffered drop of 18.6% Sunday with a -55% Monday.  If RO had a flat Sunday it's internal multi would have been around 5.65.   A $20m preview with the same multi would get Solo a $113m 3 day.  If previews are lower than DP2 by just $1m then yes sub $100 3 day is quite possible.   17.6 x 5.65 = 99.44

[TwoMisfits]

Gonna put Thursday night presales out at my 2 locals for SW...gonna try to update this post as the week goes...

 

1st local (Cinemark) - the one that lags a little on male 12-45 demo movies...

Solo - 5 showings - 4 2d/1 3d

Current sales 2d = 143/190, 75/110, 65/190, 2/110  = 285/600

Current sales 3d = 59/110

Total sales = 344/710

 

2nd local (Regal) - aka, the one that usually sells male 12-45 demo movies...

Solo - 5 showings - 3 2d/2 3d

Current sales 2d = 63/100, 31/175, 8/100 = 102/375

Current sales 3d = 46/100, 8/100 = 54/200

Total sales 156/575

 

I'm amazed that the Regal is lagging the Cinemark, but part of that may be the Cinemark put both bigger screens and more showings at 7-8pm (3 vs 2) and less 3d (2 vs 1)...and has more tickets currently available...however, both just don't have that many for what Forbes says is a $170M tracked 4 day...I mean, this needs to (at least) double its available preshowings (and start to sell them) to have a good chance at that kinda number...

Edited May 20, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 5/19/2018 at 12:31 PM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

(May 19, 2018) 12:30PM ET - MT Update 

 

60.4% Deadpool 2

14.8% Avengers: Infinity War 

8.1% Book Club

2.9% Show Dogs

2.8% Life of the Party

(May 20, 2018) 9:15PM ET - MT Update......Solo returns as the weekend comes to a close

 

55.9% Deadpool 2

16.6% Avengers: Infinity War 

7.2% Book Club

4.4% Solo: A Star Wars Story

2.8% Life of the Party

[Porthos]

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-4 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/92 (nc) [R1: 9/107]

 

2D:  0/66 (nc) [R1: 7/71]

3D:  0/26 (nc) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 71 showings [R1: 46]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 5]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1 (+1) [R1: 4]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

14 (nc) [R1: 21]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (+1) [R1: 0]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/195

St:   0/197

Su:  0/194

Mo: 0/185

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (71/92 showings):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   3 (+1)

80-89%:   5 (-1)

70-79%:  11 (+2)

60-69%:   3 (-1)

50-59%:   7 (nc)

40-49%:   6 (nc)

30-39%:   5 (+1)

20-29%:   8 (+1)

10-19%:   6 (-3)

0-9%:     16 (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	92	6077	10146	40.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:        151

----

.4258x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 4 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
.9683x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 4 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales)
1.019x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 4 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

* NOTE:  DP2 is also playing in 4 more theaters locally and had 19 more screens tracked at the same point in time.  

Edited May 22, 2018 by Porthos

[XO21]

SOLO presales in Europe look very low, tempted to start a AntMan&Wasp over Solo worldwide club 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, XO21 said:

SOLO presales in Europe look very low, tempted to start a AntMan&Wasp over Solo worldwide club 

You are waaaaaaaaay late to the party:

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

8 minutes ago, XO21 said:

SOLO presales in Europe look very low, tempted to start a AntMan&Wasp over Solo worldwide club 

this leads me to think Solo domestic > Solo worldwide.

[YLF]

5 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

this leads me to think Solo domestic > Solo worldwide.

Idk presales dont look so good domestically either at least anecdotally for me. And rotten tomatoes score isnt helping either. 

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

this leads me to think Solo domestic > Solo worldwide.

I knew exchange rates were bad, but I didn’t know they’d dipped into the negatives.

[Istealnames]

1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

this leads me to think Solo domestic > Solo worldwide.

You need some force math sensitivity there.