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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Final sales at my theater:

 

Ocean's 8: 64/138 (6/60 and 58/78)

Hereditary: 22/78

Hotel Artemis: 8/78

 

Ocean's 8 comps:

 

90% of Orient Express (25.8M)

130% of Tomb Raider (30.7M)

160% of American Made (26.9M)

160% of Wonder (44M)

180% of The Post (34.9M)

185% of Red Sparrow (31.3M)

280% of I Feel Pretty (44.8M)

 

I have no clue what to make of this. Orlando is looking extremely hit or miss too, which doesn't help at all. IDK, there's probably a good reason everyone in the industry is lowballing it. We'll see what the Friday comps have in store.

 

Hereditary:

 

25% of A Quiet Place (12.6M)

60% of Jigsaw (9.8M)

65% of Insidious 4 (19.2M)

70% of Happy Death Day (18.2M)

75% of Truth or Dare (14M)

80% of Annihilation (8.8M)

130% of Upgrade (12.4M using the PTA)

160% of Strangers 2 (16.6M)

367% of Unsane (13.9M)

 

OTOH, this one is lining up with presales. Orlando is looking very encouraging too. Here's hoping WOM isn't toxic!

 

Hotel Artemis:

 

20% of American Made (3.4M)

25% of 12 Strong (4M)

30% of The Commuter (4.1M)

30% of Den of Thieves (4.6M)

30% of Hostiles (3M)

50% of The Foreigner (6.6M)

60% of Only the Brave (3.6M)

 

I don't see this going below 3M, but a sub-4.5M opening is probably happening. Orlando is looking WEAK on this

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted 
2018-06-07 16:00:00	1253	Oceans 8
2018-06-07 16:00:00	565	Hereditary
2018-06-07 16:00:00	420	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-07 16:00:00	401	Deadpool 2
2018-06-07 16:00:00	175	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-07 16:00:00	130	Incredibles 2
2018-06-07 16:00:00	121	Adrift (2018)
2018-06-07 16:00:00	94	Book Club
2018-06-07 16:00:00	79	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-07 16:00:00	74	Hotel Artemis
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted

I echo what Han said about Ocean's 8. For example, my personal theater is dead for the 9:45PM show. It's sold 6 tickets. Looking around at another theater and it's the same ordeal. But if I expand my search a bit, there are other AMCs that have later shows that have sold 20-25 tickets. 

 

I didnt get the chance to see how the earlier shows did though. 

 

@WrathOfHan Hereditary is outselling Ocean's 8 late show 29 tickets to 6 tickets at my theater :ph34r:

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Ocean's 8:

 

10:00: 14/67

11:15: 14/113

12:25: 2/78

1:50: 17/113

3:05: 4/78

4:25: 6/113

5:45: 0/78

7:00: 18/113

8:25: 4/78

9:35: 0/113

 

Solo:

 

10:15: 5/78

11:15: 3/78

1:00: 2/69

2:30: 0/78

3:50: 0/78

6:45: 5/69

9:35: 0/78

 

Book Club:

 

10:35: 4/124

1:10: 3/124

3:50: 0/124

6:25: 7/124

9:45: 0/78

 

Adrift:

 

10:00: 2/78

1:30: 0/63

4:00: 0/67

5:40: 0/78

8:05: 8/78

10:30: 0/78

 

Hotel Artemis:

 

10:45: 4/78

2:00: 1/78

4:00: 0/78

7:20: 2/78

9:15: 0/78

 

Hereditary:

 

11:00: 0/78

1:05: 2/78

4:20: 2/78

6:20: 0/78

7:15: 2/60

9:00: 0/124

10:10: 0/78

 

Deadpool 2:

 

10:40: 5/78

1:35: 0/78

4:30: 0/78

7:20: 0/78

10:10: 0/60

 

Upgrade:

 

10:30: 3/69

1:20: 0/78

4:05: 0/69

7:05: 0/78

9:50: 0/69

 

Ocean's 8: 79/944

Solo: 15/528

Book Club: 14/574

Adrift: 10/442

Hotel Artemis: 7/390

Hereditary: 6/574

Deadpool 2: 5/378

Upgrade: 3/363

Avengers, Action Point, and Life of the Party have sold nothing.

 

Ocean's 8 comps:

 

80% of Wonder (22M)

95% of The Post (18.4M)

105% of Orient Express (30.1M)

115% of Girls Trip (35.9M)

150% of Red Sparrow (25.4M)

290% of American Made (48.7M)

 

It's extremely hard to get a grasp on this; a lot of my comps are either very low or very high. Taking a look at Disney Springs, Dolby and dine-in are selling well for tomorrow, but just like today, standard shows are selling piss poor. Hereditary has sold more than the standard shows there!

 

Hereditary:

 

15% of A Quiet Place (7.5M)

20% of Happy Death Day (5.2M)

20% of Insidious 4 (5.9M)

20% of Jigsaw (3.3M)

25% of Truth or Dare (4.7M)

67% of Annihilation (7.4M)

100% of Upgrade (9.5M using the PTA)

150% of Strangers 2 (15.6M)

 

I wouldn't be too concerned given how older skewing my area is. Upgrade was behaving the same way last week, and the preview comps ended up being much more accurate.

 

Hotel Artemis:

 

15% of 12 Strong (2.4M)

15% of Hostiles (1.5M)

20% of The Commuter (2.7M)

35% of The Foreigner (4.6M)

Edited by WrathOfHan
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Ocean's 8: 79/944

Solo: 15/528

Book Club: 14/574

Adrift: 10/442

Hotel Artemis: 7/390

Hereditary: 6/574

Deadpool 2: 5/378

Upgrade: 3/363

Avengers, Action Point, and Life of the Party have sold nothing.

 

Ocean's 8 comps:

 

80% of Wonder (22M)

95% of The Post (18.4M)

105% of Orient Express (30.1M)

115% of Girls Trip (35.9M)

150% of Red Sparrow (25.4M)

290% of American Made (48.7M)

 

It's extremely hard to get a grasp on this; a lot of my comps are either very low or very high. Taking a look at Disney Springs, Dolby and dine-in are selling well for tomorrow, but just like today, standard shows are selling piss poor. Hereditary has sold more than the standard shows there!

 

Hereditary:

 

15% of A Quiet Place (7.5M)

20% of Happy Death Day (5.2M)

20% of Insidious 4 (5.9M)

20% of Jigsaw (3.3M)

25% of Truth or Dare (4.7M)

67% of Annihilation (7.4M)

100% of Upgrade (9.5M using the PTA)

150% of Strangers 2 (15.6M)

 

I wouldn't be too concerned given how older skewing my area is. Upgrade was behaving the same way last week, and the preview comps ended up being much more accurate.

 

Hotel Artemis:

 

15% of 12 Strong (2.4M)

15% of Hostiles (1.5M)

20% of The Commuter (2.7M)

35% of The Foreigner (4.6M)

Is your theater an Atom seller or not?

 

And do you have a Bad Moms or Bad Moms 2 comp?  I know Bad Moms 2 also did the weird last minute Wed thing...

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Is your theater an Atom seller or not?

 

And do you have a Bad Moms or Bad Moms 2 comp?  I know Bad Moms 2 also did the weird last minute Wed thing...

Yes; all AMCs are I believe.

 

Bad Moms 2 was at 67 tickets IIRC (my computer with the sellouts isn’t on atm)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

97

8705

10113

13.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      59

 

.2287x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 9 days of pre-sales. [starting tomorrow this will no longer be tracked]

.1838x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 14 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5116x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 14 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales)  [I don't have info for day one of pre-sales for BP]

.5623x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  14 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) [Some theaters also went on sale early for DP2]

.4374x as many tickets sold as Solo 14 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Oceans 8 - 32.9%

Solo - 10.8%

Hereditary - 8.8%

Deadpool 8.4%

Incredibles 2 - 7.5%

 

 

Oceans increasing over the past couple of hours obviously isn't surprising. But these numbers seem rather strong for it, and considering that it's likely to be a walk-up based movie, I don't see why it couldn't do high teens for the day.

Hereditary staying even is solid, it should hold well into the night. Incredibles 2 also increasing slightly is nice, I'm really thinking this one's going to be bigger than most of us expect. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

97

8628

10113

14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      77

 

.1915x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 13 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5144x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 13 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5712x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  13 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.4493x as many tickets sold as Solo 13 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

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EarlyDeadlinePredictions Box Office Gold

EarlyDeadlinePredictions

Posted
Posted
On 6/8/2018 at 9:10 AM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

9:10AM ET - MT Update

 

30.6% Ocean's 8

11% Solo: A Star Wars Story

8.9% Deadpool 2

8.8% Hereditary

7.2% The Incredibles 2

 

20 hours ago, DAJK said:

Oceans 8 - 32.9%

Solo - 10.8%

Hereditary - 8.8%

Deadpool 8.4%

Incredibles 2 - 7.5%

 

10:15AM ET - MT Update

 

35.7% Ocean's 8

11.7% Solo: A Star Wars Story

11.1% Hereditary

8.1% Deadpool 2

5.2% The Incredibles 2

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-12 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

97

8583

10113

15.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      45

 

.1958x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 12 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5092x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 12 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5613x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  12 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.4559x as many tickets sold as Solo 12 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

Edited by Porthos
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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

You gotta wonder when Incredibles 2 presales are going to take first place on MT.

Probably Wednesday at the Latest, but Monday wouldn't surprise me before it dips for Cheap Tuesday.

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted 
Updated by @akvalley: 2018-06-10 16:59:26 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-06-10 16:00:00	870	Oceans 8
2018-06-10 16:00:00	367	Deadpool 2
2018-06-10 16:00:00	328	Hereditary
2018-06-10 16:00:00	321	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-10 16:00:00	238	Incredibles 2
2018-06-10 16:00:00	169	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-10 16:00:00	101	Adrift (2018)
2018-06-10 16:00:00	91	Upgrade (2018)
2018-06-10 16:00:00	56	Hotel Artemis
2018-06-10 16:00:00	46	Book Club
2018-06-10 16:00:00	44	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Still not sure what to make of JWs rather slow sales... makes me wish we had this type of data back in 2015 for comparisons sake. 

It will be interesting to see if this is a franchise that actually is walk up driven or not. The last big several films that we thought could have some walk up appeal (DP2, Solo, O8) didn't and actually played to what their presales were indicating. 

 

It also puts its sales/walk up potential into perspective when you consider that Incredibles 2, a film that's supposed to have walk up appeal, is doing what it's doing in presales. I don't say this just for JW but I do wonder if that eventually the bigger films will be much easier to predict as presales become the norm even for so called walk up friendly movies like I2. 

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